Proof of BC "Golden Rail"? - Page 4

ELA · #61 03-11-2007, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The idea is to bet against mediocre horses that get reputations that are undeserved. Street Sense, while aided by the dynamics of the race as well as the bias, is not one of these horses.

Look, even if he was the likeliest winner of the Derby at this point, he still is no better than 20-1 in reality. Hell, even sound he probably isn't 60% to make the Derby. However, the idea that he won't make the Derby because he ran too fast in early November is beyond ridiculous.

Street Sense is a very good horse. We don't have a lot of these in actuality anymore. It's possible he may be capable of running more than one or two good races. Ya know, horses used to be able to do this.

Excellent point.

Eric

blackthroatedwind · #62 03-11-2007, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

here's where your wrong. I don't want internet cred...Which is why 90% of this board has no idea how I've done in the past....But I hate the fact that if Street Sense becomes Secretariat, I will take s.hit the rest of my life---but if it works the other way---whatever-- according to you. To me, that's unequal....But that's reality I guess which I'm fine with.

This is the internet...and you asked for it. You're smart enough to know that. You are getting very little credit if you are right but quite a bit more crap if you are wrong. Not saying it's fair....but it is what it is.

Hell, I've had people at Saratoga ask me if I ever have a winner....after giving out some good picks. It goes with the territory. Like everything else in life, you better find self satisfaction.

ELA · #63 03-11-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Apparently when someone says a horse is "finished" they don't mean "finished winning graded stakes races."
It is a bit confusing.

Agreed. Don't get me wrong, I respect people taking a stand. I think most of us do -- regardless of the outcome. The after dinner speakers and bashers aside of course.

If the horse is done, I think that's pretty clear. Unless someone wants to predict that he wins next weekend and is retired after the race, LOL.

Eric

randallscott35 · #64 03-11-2007, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is the internet...and you asked for it. You're smart enough to know that. You are getting very little credit if you are right but quite a bit more crap if you are wrong. Not saying it's fair....but it is what it is.

Hell, I've had people at Saratoga ask me if I ever have a winner....after giving out some good picks. It goes with the territory. Like everything else in life, you better find self satisfaction.

You can "count" self satisfaction. I understand the concept.

randallscott35 · #65 03-11-2007, 06:16 PM

Andy you can have a drink from the bottle that Grits is giving me in Toga...I promise no arsenic in it.

blackthroatedwind · #66 03-11-2007, 06:20 PM

You should be watching " Mean Streets ".

randallscott35 · #67 03-11-2007, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You should be watching " Mean Streets ".

My fantasy baseball draft is right now, I should be paying attention to that. I just drafted Cory Lidle after taking Daryl Kile earlier.

ArlJim78 · #68 03-11-2007, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Andy, again, I am a historian. I know what history says about numbers like that. I'm not going with a gut feeling here...And yes money is the name of the game. And trust me, I bet plenty when I have an opinion. I completely agree that picking races without betting on them makes no sense....But betting against a horse like Street Sense for the rest of his career will make you money...Playing against SNS in that GP race was the right thing to do. Leaving him out of every trifecta was the right thing to do....Did I win on the race? Nope, had the tri wrong...But it doesn't change the fact that when you take stands, the money has a higher likelihood of coming your way.

How will you make money betting against him? Removing one horse from the equation doesn't guarantee big paydays. If you don't get the rest of it right you may make nothing even if you were correct on Street Sense. Also if you are correct and he never comes close to that level again, the public will make corrections and the value of your opinion will get diluted over time.

The time to strike will be right away, his next race. Will you be going all in on Any Given Saturday? I'm curious how you're going to clean up on this "stand".

randallscott35 · #69 03-11-2007, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

How will you make money betting against him? Removing one horse from the equation doesn't guarantee big paydays. If you don't get the rest of it right you may make nothing even if you were correct on Street Sense. Also if you are correct and he never comes close to that level again, the public will make corrections and the value of your opinion will get diluted over time.

The time to strike will be right away, his next race. Will you be going all in on Any Given Saturday? I'm curious how you're going to clean up on this "stand".

Jim, is that the same public that made Wilko 3-1 today? They don't change their minds, they are lemmings...And this is a value game. Take shots at faves or go home is my motto.

ArlJim78 · #70 03-11-2007, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Jim, is that the same public that made Wilko 3-1 today? They don't change their minds, they are lemmings...And this is a value game. Take shots at faves or go home is my motto.

Wilco was the second favorite in a small field. His odds weren't that much different than several of the other lesser threats. I left him out of my pick three and was delighted that the four beat the seven.

Like I said, eliminating a horse helps, but you still must figure out who to wager on.

blackthroatedwind · #71 03-11-2007, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Jim, is that the same public that made Wilko 3-1 today? They don't change their minds, they are lemmings...And this is a value game. Take shots at faves or go home is my motto.

I wish there was a " public " these days....and I wish whoever they are were lemmings. Unfortunately, the pools are pretty fair, and the opportunities, the real opportunities, are far from easy to find.

That being said....WILKO was 3-1? Did John Candlin have an entry in the race?

10 pnt move up · #72 03-11-2007, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wish there was a " public " these days....and I wish whoever they are were lemmings. ?

aint that the truth....what is the % of the pool that is the public, 10%?

POINTGIVEN1985 · #73 03-12-2007, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He is finished.

i like him to beat any given saturday off the layoff, so you keep saying he's finished and maybe i can get a decent price

PPerfectfan · #74 03-12-2007, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Not too bad for a crop that is viewed to be pretty average....so who is the best up to this point?

But isnt that how it is almost every year. All you hear is "Oh this year is very average" but your right the Juvy is looking very strong. Now lets hope SS can keep it going. Couldnt find better connections that with that horse.

Dunbar · #75 03-12-2007, 11:00 AM

(I wrote a response here before reading the rest of the thread. What I'd written had been well-covered by other posters, so I deleted it.)

--Dunbar

Cajungator26 · #76 03-12-2007, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Wilco was the second favorite in a small field. His odds weren't that much different than several of the other lesser threats. I left him out of my pick three and was delighted that the four beat the seven.

Like I said, eliminating a horse helps, but you still must figure out who to wager on.

It's ridiculous how awful Wilko looked. I know he's never been a world beater, but heavens...

ArlJim78 · #77 03-12-2007, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

(I wrote a response here before reading the rest of the thread. What I'd written had been well-covered by other posters, so I deleted it.)

--Dunbar

still would have liked to have read your take on it. It's not like we never have redundancy around here.

ArlJim78 · #78 03-12-2007, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

It's ridiculous how awful Wilko looked. I know he's never been a world beater, but heavens...

When you say he looked awful, do you mean his appearance on the track or how he ran? I didn't get a look at him in the post parade but his effort looked normal to me and pretty much exactly what one would expect.