Any Given Saturday

Way too early still. As I watch it again, when JV took a look back around the final turn into the stretch, the horse kinda of said "what am I supposed to do?" for a moment... I really cant take much out of this at all upon review. Running on the beach sand... and the 2nd place horse had a big ground saving trip on a track that leaders held well on today, early races at least. But I was not expecting to see the horse to run completely away from the others anyway based on what I have seen from him. Expectations before a race play a big role in how one views the race.

But I do think its true the horse is rated highly because of Pletcher and not his accomplishments.

The Southwest should be much more interesting.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

i really dont see anything wrong at all with the horses performance today. the horse did it pretty easy and wasnt fully extended and thats notta bad thing this time of year when youre on the trail. the horse has proven himself@3 different tracks now and has already showed churchill isnt gonna be a problem for him if he makes it. hes a half length from being undefeated and theres no shame in losing to the lone horse who has defeated him. i think the harshness on him is unwarranted at this point

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I did not see a horse with a lot of energy in reserve down the lane. My opinion is that there wasn't a whole lot more there.

He's a grinding type....the way he finished doesn't bother me. He was twitching his ears once he put the field away, and never left the impression that he was a spent horse.

The only legit knock on his performance I see is that he simply didn't run very fast.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

i really dont see anything wrong at all with the horses performance today. the horse did it pretty easy and wasnt fully extended and thats notta bad thing this time of year when youre on the trail. the horse has proven himself@3 different tracks now and has already showed churchill isnt gonna be a problem for him if he makes it. hes a half length from being undefeated and theres no shame in losing to the lone horse who has defeated him. i think the harshness on him is unwarranted at this point

I don't think it's " harshness " at all. It's just a reasonably honest evaluation of TODAY'S race. I don't think anyone suggested he couldn't ( and shouldn't ) improve.....it's really just as DrugS said......he didn't run very fast. Even in a first start he probably should have run a little faster for a horse who is getting so much hype. More it's just a slight cause for pause.

[hockey2315]

I don't understand how anyone can say that this horse doesn't have heart after the way he battled with Tiz Wonderful, who would probably be one of the top three derby contenders at this point if he hadn't gotten hurt. I agree that his race today wasn't exactly incredible, but he did pretty much everything that was asked of him. I was looking forward to seeing AGS run again to try and get a better feel for his talent level, but unfortunately, I think his race today was inconclusive.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The only legit knock on his performance I see is that he simply didn't run very fast.

He ran .10 second slower than Blue Grass Cat's 2006 Sam Davis.

Coming to the wire, his ears were pricked and he was looking around. He got squeezed a bit and ate some dirt early on. It was a good education that took nothing out of him.

The biggest plus, in my handicapping mind, is when the Tampa Bay Derby comes up, and the challengers ship in from So. Fla., he will have a distinct advantage because he now has a trip over the surface.

[slotdirt]

How good is Distorted Humor? That's all.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's a grinding type....the way he finished doesn't bother me. He was twitching his ears once he put the field away, and never left the impression that he was a spent horse.

The only legit knock on his performance I see is that he simply didn't run very fast.

Of course, the bottom line is that it wasn't fast. I didn't mean to imply he was spent, it was just my impression that the performance was much closer to his best than people might think.

The fact that his ears were twitching doesn't do much for me, I can't read too much into that.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Kasept

PG,

What I would not like if I was a fan of 'Saturday' was his considerably shortened stride in the stretch.. I may have seen something that isn't there, but to me he did not look good finishing up. And I don't mean under the wire.. I mean when clear midstretch when he should have been at his absolute best. He was not reaching out a lick. That said, Tampa has a very strange surface that doesn't seem to flatter horses visually. I'll have to watch it again.

Remember Sun King's uninspiring prep race at Tampa, he wasn't a factor in the Derby, he's turned out to be a nice horse, I'll give him a pass here...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Remember Sun King's uninspiring prep race at Tampa, he wasn't a factor in the Derby, he's turned out to be a nice horse, I'll give him a pass here...

So now this horse is like Sun King? I guess we could say the same about any horse that runs an uninspiring race, yet they are not all going to turn out to be Sun Kings.
Besides, I believe the current discussion here is focused on the derby and not to say that the horse can't develop to be a nice one down the road.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So now this horse is like Sun King? I guess we could say the same about any horse that runs an uninspiring race, yet they are not all going to turn out to be Sun Kings.
Besides, I believe the current discussion here is focused on the derby and not to say that the horse can't develop to be a nice one down the road.

No, I was agreeing with Kasept that it's a funny track...

I don't think it was all that bad or good, coming off of a layoff on a quirky track...He'll get another chance...

[ManilaRose]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

He has no heart because he barely beat a pool of marginal NW1x'ers; most of which had no business in this race..That's why. If you want to see what a champion performs like, watch Bluegrass Cat in last year's SFD...

First let me say I thought it was an ok performance. That being said the Derby's in May at Churchill, not February at Tampa. Second, to say he barely won this race is comical and deserves no more time spent on the comment than this. Lastly, I was unaware a horse's heart is measured by the margin of victory against inferior horses who at no point made the race interesting enough of a challenge for AGS to call on heart. Horses win with ability and heart. Some races you need one, some races you need both. Heart certainly wasn't necessary in this race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought Sun King's win in the Tampa Derby was totally awful.

As a 1/20 favorite, against a VERY soft field at level weight, he got to dilly dally on the lead through soft fractions, some soon to be claimer named Forever Wild took a pretty good run at him on the far turn, before SK shrugged him off and won by 3 in unimpressive time. His figure that day shouldn't be that much more than what AGS will get.

SK had a pretty nice comeback race at a one-turn mile one start prior. Tampa's always been a funny track. If anyone remembers last year, a pair of horses (Seek Gold and Take D' Tour) who got soundly beaten at the '06 Tampa meet---both won Grade 1 races on the same day...just a few months later.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's probably a nice horse, and maybe he will step forward, but don't kid yourselves about today's effort as it was VERY pedestrian. Take a good look at the pps of the second finisher.....as well as the rest of the field. It was a ridiculous bunch.

I looked at the PPs AND the pedigrees and expected the second finisher to do better at a 2-turn distance than some of the other, more spoken of horses in the field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I looked at the PPs AND the pedigrees and expected the second finisher to move up at a two turn distance.

I mentioned that earlier in the thread.

The winner is still the better horse of the two, by about 8 lengths or more, at any distance. Trip, and all the circumstancial stuff is what brought those two horses so close together.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I looked at the PPs AND the pedigrees and expected the second finisher to do better at a 2-turn distance than some of the other, more spoken of horses in the field.

I missed your post before the race. I would love to see it.....which thread was it in?

[Pedigree Ann]

Didn't post it. Don't live on the net. Just thought to myself as I looked at the DRF race of week stuff that the horses they were picking for second and third didn't look as good for the distance as this one. Good, solid state-bred family. I do that sort of thing, being a pedigree geek, not a betting fiend. Was confused, thinking it was a Public Handicapper race so was checking it out.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Didn't post it. Don't live on the net. Just thought to myself as I looked at the DRF race of week stuff that the horses they were picking for second and third didn't look as good for the distance as this one. Good, solid state-bred family. I do that sort of thing, being a pedigree geek, not a betting fiend. Was confused, thinking it was a Public Handicapper race so was checking it out.

You don't live on the net? Good to know. I hope you have a warm and safe home.

You did however have the same time AFTER the race to let us know about how you felt about the results that you could just have easily have spent BEFORE the race. Just imagine how much more insightful it might have seemed then.

One can only dream now.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

First let me say I thought it was an ok performance. That being said the Derby's in May at Churchill, not February at Tampa. Second, to say he barely won this race is comical and deserves no more time spent on the comment than this. Lastly, I was unaware a horse's heart is measured by the margin of victory against inferior horses who at no point made the race interesting enough of a challenge for AGS to call on heart. Horses win with ability and heart. Some races you need one, some races you need both. Heart certainly wasn't necessary in this race.

In hindsight, I imagine it was a bit harsh to question this horse's ability/heart based on one race. In rereading some of my posts, I picked up on a bit of vitrol that I normally refrain from....Guess I was severely disappointed by the effort, even though early on the DT, over a quirky track....just expected that AGS should have shown a lot more than what he did against this field... This "hand ride in the stretch" that some refer to was against a horse with a career average beyer of 60.6 over 6 starts - his best a 76....to draw off by 2 and a half lengths againts this class of horse might impress someone, but fell well short of my expectations of him.
Perhaps that's all part of Pletcher's plan for him...Who knows?

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, he got a 95 Beyer number, so I guess I must have underrated his performance.

I really on disliked him because DrugS is so high on him.