|
|
 |
|
#41
07-13-2025, 02:55 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
I like the 9 and 10 to possibly blow up the tote board in race 6. The horses look solid but getting overlooked due to connections. 
|
|
#42
07-13-2025, 03:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
^Good stuff Mo, keep it rolling...I am not trying to beat Governor Sam after much deliberation. Jet Sweep Joe's last was real nice though, maybe he can repeat it...I wanted to make a case for Insubordination who if getting enough pace might come with that grindy move and maybe found it's spot turf sprinting finally...but ultimately decided I'm singling Governor Sam and moving on.
Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Floge 6/1 - I want to take a shot against Intermittent Fasting in here and while Gone and Forgotten makes the most sense and will be a prominant use for me in the late pick 4, I wanted to get a little more creative and landed on Floge. She has some back races that fit in here and I get that Jesus Romero taking over for Brad Cox and then runs her way over her head/doesn't fire will keep most off, I like the turnback to a sprint today, getting back into a class that she fits in. Best Value: Race 10 #9 Soho Nights 12/1 - It's possible she just can't really run at all, I wish there was some signal that she was picking it up in the mornings but she has been working steadily since getting time off after the debut debacle...seems clear something went wrong with the break right after and she took some money in there...this seems like a more realistic level, I like that she gets a weight break with Elliott aboard and in a field this hungry she doesn't have to be all that much to have a big shot.
|
|
#43
07-13-2025, 07:27 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Nice call on Soho Nights too. Didn’t win but paid pretty nicely to place.
|
|
#44
07-14-2025, 06:45 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Totals are now: $56.00 wagered $109.10 returned I don’t know if I’ll have time the next few days to really dig into the Wednesday card. I do see two horses already that I like so I’ll post them for now, but subject to change. Race 2. #4 Innate, 15/1. Coming off a long layoff, expect this one to be a big price but there doesn’t seem to be anyone special in here. This one went off at 6/1 in stakes company as a 2YO, then disappeared. The work tab is light but this horse was viewed as talented at one point and lands in a spot where winning is within reach. Beer Run is the logical favorite here but he’s winless in 8 starts, including 6 races where he was 3/1 or under. Race 9. #7 Marvelous Madison, 8/1. I thought last out was a pretty nice effort as she was close to the pace set by the talented Gata Brazil, which fell apart. Disco Star finished ahead of her but I like this one’s effort a little better. Marvelous Madison also just looks like a turf router to me, so I’ll take a swing on her at what should be a big price.
|
|
#45
07-15-2025, 07:18 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Gata Brazil was bad, Ocala Dream ran a pretty flat third.
El Rezeen was no match for Far Bridge and paid $2.90 to place. Holiday Pay is still running. Floge didn't offer much run Sunday...got $19.60 to place for Soho Nights who was no match for the winner but ran OK in her return. Wagered: $56.00 Returned: $114.60
|
|
#46
07-16-2025, 12:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
7/16/25:
Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Charlotte's Heat 9/2 - Debated between her and Trail of Gold here I just think she's likely going to be a better price and I liked the debut, Casse is firing and I think this is the one horse who might just be more talented that the rest...bit of a weird path here but that could be muddying up the form and Castellano being aboard should ensure at least an OK price. Best Value: Race 5 #2 Illmatic 7/2 - Not sure what kind of price to expect here but this seems like a field that it's hard to project and he looks most talented/best suited for this race today...the slow turf work will maybe get us better than expect value but he is bred for this and has the right connections to be a winner in here to me...couldn't really come up with any big prices today so I'll take a shot here and hope he proves best. Good luck everyone.
|
|
#47
07-16-2025, 04:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Hoping we can get a 5-7 exacta in the last, I'll have at least a few bucks on it.
|
|
#48
07-16-2025, 04:24 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
I may need to play a 5-7 exacta. Had all my horizontals to the 7 but just got knocked out by Gilmore. Last edited by moses : 07-16-2025 at 04:44 PM.
|
|
#49
07-16-2025, 05:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
 ) ran really well setting a suicidal pace while never getting comfortable and finding a little bit in the lane before being swallowed up...I'd say look for second out because I think that horse has some real ability and seemed like it might need one or possibly a little more ground...certainly needs less pace...but probably will be fairly obvious second time out so will be interesting to see where Miguel goes from here...Charlotte's Heart took some money and I had way too much confidence in my cap on that race because all my horses and her finished near the back of the pack...can't say I loved the ride Javier gave her but she ultimately had nothing anyway. Back to the drawing board tomorrow... Wagered: $64.00 Returned: $114.60
|
|
#50
07-16-2025, 05:22 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Wagered: $64.00 Returned: $162.50 I really don’t like Thursdays card too much. Nothing clever. Race 6. #10 Ty Ty Rose, 10/1. Trainer hits at 30% first time on turf starts. He’s got two in this race and Santana seems to be his preferred rider. Santana has been riding well lately. I don’t love the outside post but I’ll take 10/1 here, especially as I don’t have strong thoughts on the rest of the card. Race 9. #7 Enlighten, 8/5. Just seems the best horse in this race. Doubtful we get 8/5.
|
|
#52
07-17-2025, 11:50 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
7/17/25
Best Bet: Race 2 # 9 Annexperience 7/2 - Like the stretchout today. Best Value: Race 10 #14 Out of the Fog 15/1 - Expecting improvement second time out, will certainly need it, but thought was completely against the flow of the race first out.
|
|
#53
07-17-2025, 12:33 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Race 2. #2 Before the Wind, 6/1. Horrible ride last out imo. Irad should move this one up and have a nice inside trip.
|
|
#54
07-17-2025, 06:03 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Total whiff today.
The kicker was I put together a $60 late pick 5 ticket this morning (that would have won) but switched a few horses around and dropped Barnstorming out and ended up missing. That’s ok. My two year old pick didn’t pan out at all (note I like the way Santana has been riding, part of why I almost included Barnstorming). Before the Wind ran 4th but there wasn’t much distance between 2nd and 4th. An experience was just too good here. Wagered: $72.00 Returned: $162.50 Friday. Race 5. #4 Bodegas, 15/1. Took some money on debut, albeit in an easier spot than this. Still, I suspect this one might have some talent and no one else in here looks like anything special. Gets Rosario aboard. Race 7. #7 Big Everest, 7/2. There is no one in this race that is proven as fast early as this one on the grass. The pace projector says the pace will be hot but I think Big Everest may be able to control it up front and it’ll be too late for the other logicals to track him down. Off the layoff, he faced off against the very talented Donegal Momentum who was able to press the pace. Last out, 8.5 might have been too long for him, and he was game up to roughly a mile before conceding in the final half furlong. Even there, Cugino is a respectable stakes winner and GS placed horse. I don’t see who will provide legitimate pace pressure to him today. Last edited by moses : Yesterday at 07:34 AM.
|
|
#55
Yesterday, 03:17 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
7/18/25
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Nantasket Beach 3/1 - Was/will be hoping for a little better price, Aragona is great at this so I suppose he'll be right but anyway...I was interested in this horse in the Kelso so I kind of feel obligated in this spot. Since the claim I just think this horse has gotten really good. Mountain Bear kind of confirmed that last race was legitimate and who knows what we get from I'm Very Busy. If he's ready for his best off the bench then they're all running for second but I'll guess he's not and take a horse I view as a very likely winner if so. Best Value: Race 8 #4 Pride's Crossing 15/1 - Get the sense that she's a bit of a wiseguy horse in here so I'm not sure we'll get 15/1, but she should be a good price. The debut clearly hinted at big ability...since switching to Chad I'm guessing the Tampa turf try was the best spot to get her 9F at the time...the Keeneland race was stolen by Prat on the front end and she was really just finding her best stride when it was far too late. Back out to 1 1/8th last and she was kind of disappointing to not win but I don't know if she really loved that track. She galloped out like she wasn't tired at all to me...the ambitious spotting in a race Chad definitely doesn't have to be running her seems like a big tip off of what he thinks of her to me.
|
|
#56
Yesterday, 03:58 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Wagered: $80.00 Returned: $185.10 Saturday. I haven’t looked closely yet. I’ll probably change these but we’ll see. Race 9. #4 Kairyu 6/1. Race 11. #4 Mullikin, 7/2.
|
|
#58
Today, 06:01 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
For race 9, I’m going to take an even bigger swing and roll with #2 Zeitlos, 8/1. Zeitlos finished 5th in this race last year. Despite running most of her races on dirt, she’s shown she can handle the turf. She’ll get an inside trip stalking the front runners and will need to get some running room in the stretch, but she’s capable of running them down at a big price. I liked Kairyu in 2nd off the layoff but she switches to Carmouche and while I love Carmouche for sprints, it’s a downgrade from Prat. Bonus pick for the Haskell (won’t count toward totals): Obviously Journalism will be tough to beat but I think #4 Burnham Square has a shot at 5/1 or maybe even higher. Nearly every horse in this race has some early speed. If Rispoli stays too close to the pace, moves too soon into the fast pace, and/or goes wide to avoid getting boxed in like the Preakness, he’ll open himself up to getting run down by Burnham Square. Bottom line, I don’t trust Rispoli to give Journalism a great ride. And while Journalism is the most accomplished horse in this race and has been the best so far, there’s no way to know if that gap has shrunk until they run the race today. Aside from Burnham Square, Gosger and Goal Oriented are two horses who could have improved greatly since we’ve last seen them. It should be an interesting race. Last edited by moses : Today at 06:17 AM.
|
Linear Mode
