Graded Stakes and Polytrack

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by repent

a very good turf filly?
I guess in the general sense in that anyone would love to own her.
but she is not Wait A While.
hell, she is not even Karens Caper or Pommes Frittes.

Repent

The reality though this year is that the Distaff Division is very weak. We barely have anyone cracking 100 Beyer's consistently and very few hitting 105 period. On the turf side there are a lot more fillies and mares doing that.

So the 5th or 6th best FM Turf horse is better than the 5th or 6th best Distaff horse.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Look, I hear what your saying, and won't argue that these polytrack Grade 1 races are not likely to be won by true Grade 1 dirt horses, whatever the hell those are anymore, but the major reason for grading of races is field quality so as long as the fields are still strong the gradings will most likely remain.

I also agree with the argument that Keeneland Grade 1s on the dirt have produced MANY past winners unqualified to be Grade 1 winners due to the absurd bias.

I just think they should paint polytrack green.

Question. If field quality is the major reason for the grading of races, how can they justify grading races on Polytrack when nobody knows the quality of the horses running over the stuff? For instance, we know that if we get Cacique, English Channel, The Tin Man, Hurricane Run, Shirocco, Relaxed Gesture, etc, it's a top quality race on the grass. Do we know the same thing if it's on the dirt? If we get Hawk Wing, Oratorio, Galileo, Starcraft, and Rodrigo de Triano in a dirt race, should that still be considered a top quality race even though they've shown that the couldn't handle it? Danzig asked the best question here. If they downgrade turf races when they are switched to the dirt because of the question about the quality of the race due to the horse's not having shown their quality on a different surface, why not the same for Polytrack?

[SniperSB23]

I am more worried that we wind up seeing turf horses in the Derby. There are very few opportunities for 3yo turf horses before the Triple Crown which will make races like the Lane's End and the Blue Grass a lot more enticing for them. If turf horses go to those races and do well their connections might actually be stupid enough to suddenly think the horse belongs in the Derby (similar to them putting Asi Siempre in the Distaff). I guess there are 8-10 horses in the Derby that don't belong as it is so it probably won't be too much different.

[disrespectnfool]

then maybe they should downgrade the JCGC to an alw.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

You might be the biggest redboarder who ever lived, and I've lost all respect for you.
Your address is 123 afterthefact lane

That is just downright ridiculous.

Sniper is pointing out that the non-speed class horses for the most part are winning the races at Keeneland...Nowhere, besides the PRE-race discussion thread on this forum and on another forum where he selected PRE-race those particular horses did he ever say he benefited off them. It's called discussing a new surface, rather than stamping your feet and saying you're just not going to cap it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

you can believe that if you want.
but the reality is that it has replaced the main track at several major racetracks.
its not like they replaced the turf course or they added a 3rd course to KEE.
they took away the dirt and its always going to be aligned with dirt.

Im not saying that you change the grading of the stakes b/c they are run on polytrack.
Im saying you do have to reavaluate the status of each race on an individual basis.
when you do that, several KEE races have lost some of their importance.
when and if this diminishes the quality of the fields, then I hope they are downgraded.
I would hate to see the Blue Grass remain a Grade 1 year after year when it loses its place as a key KY Derby prep.
and it will happen.
how many top 3YOs will prep in the Blue Grass by 2008?
Im guessing none. the purse will make it an attractive spot, but Im guessing you will see mostly a field of turf horses and failed dirt horses.


Repent

As long as trainers think the surface is safe, I don't think they will have a problem prepping for big races on the polytrack. I don't think the field in the Bluegrass will suffer at all. One of the main things a trainer is looking for in a prep race is a race that they think their horse will come out of in one piece and be able to move forward from. Doug O' Neil was going to run Lava Man on the turf as a prep for the BC Classic. He ended up changing his mind because the Goodwood came up much easier than the grass race he was looking at.

I really don't see the quality of the field suffering in the Bluegrass at all. In fact, some guys may even be more likely to prep in the Bluegrass because of the polytrack. If they have a good horse who is starting to get a little sore come April, I think they would be more likely to run in the Bluegrass beacsue of the general belief that polytrack is a little more forgiving that dirt.

I don't see any disadvantage to prepping in the Bluegrass Stakes unless you have a horse coming from Southern California who has never run on regular dirt. A horse who has never run on regular dirt would be at disadvantge in the Ky Derby because there isn't much kickback on polytracks so the horse would be getting dirt in his face for the first time in the Ky Derby. I think that would be a big disadvantage. Not only that, if your horse has never run on regular dirt, you don't even know if he will like it.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Here you go, I picked Asi Siempre before the race was run:

http://www.thoroughbrednet.us/discus...pic=9372&st=20

Yes, she is a very good turf filly.

YOu are the worst redboarder who ever lived, and its disgraceful.
YOu also failed to want to step out on a limb before the Juvenile race because you said "these are two year olds and its not an good indicator" and also said you liked Happy Ticket as a barometer of hwo horses handled it.
No mention of Kelly's landing, the filly who won the alciabades, etc.
YOu are one redboarding statement after another each and every day.
And its been pointed out by many.

I like Great Hunter more than Quay but the short stretch at a mile and a sixteenth is a big concern to me to take any closer. I'll fully cap it later but I'm going to need to see tons of pace before I will back Quay.

The Spinster will be a better gauge of how established horses handle the stuff. Happy Ticket is a pretty consistent horse. If she runs a sub 95 Beyer and doesn't hit the top three here I'll give credence to the idea that there will be good dirt horses that can't handle the poly.


read your words Sniper, do you recognize them?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lemons ran twice on polytrack, winning once and finishing a fast closing third in the stakes falling a length short of winning. I don't see how that is so inconsistent with her form.

I'm looking for a good example of an established dirt horse not running well. Say Happy Ticket or Spun Sugar really tank. Then I'd give some more credence to the theory that good dirt horses won't like poly. You know what though, I betcha they wind up running 1-2 because they are the best horses in the race and the best horses won't have a problem with poly

THESE WERE YOUR WORDS ON 10-05-2006!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now oh redboarding one. Explain to me how you can say that Spun and Happy will run 1-2, then say that you picked Asi Siempre to win, blah blah blah. Happy now? That everyone can see this?
Oh, and I told you lemons hated it, you said she didn't. WHo was right?
You said if Happy failed to run a 95 Beyer and missed the board that you would give credence. Now you don't.
This act is old, and its nauseating. redboarding is absolutely the worst thing anyone can do in the horse game.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

YOu are the worst redboarder who ever lived, and its disgraceful.
YOu also failed to want to step out on a limb before the Juvenile race because you said "these are two year olds and its not an good indicator" and also said you liked Happy Ticket as a barometer of hwo horses handled it.
No mention of Kelly's landing, the filly who won the alciabades, etc.
YOu are one redboarding statement after another each and every day.
And its been pointed out by many.

Dude, stop making stuff up. Here was my post before the Juvenile race:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho....php?t=5305#22

How is that not stepping out on a limb?

Yes, I did say that if Happy Ticket didn't hit the board I'd give some credence to the idea of consistent, established dirt horses not being able to run on poly. Well, she didn't hit the board but we both saw the race and know that second was hers if she didn't get steadied in the stretch. That could have happened on any surface.

I did mention the Alcibiades, saying it went more to form than the Frizette did.

As far as Kelly's Landing, doesn't he have at least one track record, maybe even a couple on dirt? How is he a good indicator that dirt horses can't handle poly? Who was supposed to win that race? It was totally wide open.

I think the real redboarder on here is you. You have posted exactly one pick of a horse on polytrack that you thought would win on dirt and he finished second. How can you sit here after the fact and claim the dirt horses aren't winning on poly when you never post ahead of time who should have won the race? That is much worse than looking back at a race afterwards to see if the results were unusual.

It is pretty pathetic how caught up in yourself you are that you have to flip out anytime someone new comes on here and actually questions what you have to say. You can't even formulate an argument, you just start spouting "redboarder" like some wacko from the looney bin. You've already driven plenty of other potential posters off of here with your crazyman obsessed with himself antics and I'm surprised Steve puts up with it. Hopefully he gets you in check before this place just becomes the Shrine to Oracle.

Oh, and if anyone else wants to call me a redboarder, please do it to my face, not through some gay PMs to Oracle.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Dude, stop making stuff up. Here was my post before the Juvenile race:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho....php?t=5305#22

How is that not stepping out on a limb?

Yes, I did say that if Happy Ticket didn't hit the board I'd give some credence to the idea of consistent, established dirt horses not being able to run on poly. Well, she didn't hit the board but we both saw the race and know that second was hers if she didn't get steadied in the stretch. That could have happened on any surface.

I did mention the Alcibiades, saying it went more to form than the Frizette did.

As far as Kelly's Landing, doesn't he have at least one track record, maybe even a couple on dirt? How is he a good indicator that dirt horses can't handle poly? Who was supposed to win that race? It was totally wide open.

I think the real redboarder on here is you. You have posted exactly one pick of a horse on polytrack that you thought would win on dirt and he finished second. How can you sit here after the fact and claim the dirt horses aren't winning on poly when you never post ahead of time who should have won the race? That is much worse than looking back at a race afterwards to see if the results were unusual.

It is pretty pathetic how caught up in yourself you are that you have to flip out anytime someone new comes on here and actually questions what you have to say. You can't even formulate an argument, you just start spouting "redboarder" like some wacko from the looney bin. You've already driven plenty of other potential posters off of here with your crazyman obsessed with himself antics and I'm surprised Steve puts up with it. Hopefully he gets you in check before this place just becomes the Shrine to Oracle.

Oh, and if anyone else wants to call me a redboarder, please do it to my face, not through some gay PMs to Oracle.

YOu really think a maiden with a pathetically slow fig making her 2nd start in a graded race worth 400g's and winning is more formful than a horse who had already won in graded stakes company doing it again? Thats the analogy that you are making with the Alc and the Friz.
Seriously, was that a typo?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I like Great Hunter more than Quay but the short stretch at a mile and a sixteenth is a big concern to me to take any closer. I'll fully cap it later but I'm going to need to see tons of pace before I will back Quay.

Nice, bring out the post before I fully capped the race and found out the short stretch was no longer an issue but ignore the one I posted later with my picks.

As far as Lemons, she ran just fine in the Spinster. She can barely run 4th in most 3yo races and she ran just fine to get 4th in a G1 against older horses.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

YOu really think a maiden with a pathetically slow fig making her 2nd start in a graded race worth 400g's and winning is more formful than a horse who had already won in graded stakes company doing it again? Thats the analogy that you are making with the Alc and the Friz.
Seriously, was that a typo?

Look at the horses that got second and third in the Frizette, they had no business being there. That race was flat out terrible.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Look at the horses that got second and third in the Frizette, they had no business being there. That race was flat out terrible.

And the Alciabades wasn't?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by oracle80

YOu really think a maiden with a pathetically slow fig making her 2nd start in a graded race worth 400g's and winning is more formful than a horse who had already won in graded stakes company doing it again? Thats the analogy that you are making with the Alc and the Friz.
Seriously, was that a typo?

How is a G1 earning a 68 Beyer (actually, that was a kind number, i got a 56 equivalent) with a 47-1 shot 2nd running "to form"?

Both races SUCKED, and the east coast fillies are terrible. They ran to form in that sense.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

And the Alciabades wasn't?

OK, pretty much all 2yo filly racing has been terrible this year. The Alciabades wasn't quite as terrible. I happen to think Her Majesty was the best horse in either of the races. We'll have to wait to see.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

OK, pretty much all 2yo filly racing has been terrible this year. The Alciabades wasn't quite as terrible. I happen to think Her Majesty was the best horse in either of the races. We'll have to wait to see.

Ok.
I agree with Phil and you that the entire division of 2Yo fillies has been horrendous anyplace East of California. I think we are all unanimous on that one!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WIth PA being suspect to even run, I just have to single Reddam and Dollase's filly in the BC. I think shes gonna win that one.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Ok.
I agree with Phil and you that the entire division of 2Yo fillies has been horrendous anyplace East of California. I think we are all unanimous on that one!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WIth PA being suspect to even run, I just have to single Reddam and Dollase's filly in the BC. I think shes gonna win that one.

I like Dreaming of Anna's chances too, if she can come anywhere close to duplicating her turf form on the dirt she'll be dangerous. Her and Cash Included would be my picks ignoring odds. Her Majesty is my longshot if she goes.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like Dreaming of Anna's chances too, if she can come anywhere close to duplicating her turf form on the dirt she'll be dangerous. Her and Cash Included would be my picks ignoring odds. Her Majesty is my longshot if she goes.

Dreaming is the only other logical choice. I'd have to say the East Coast fillies are as bad as any group I ever saw.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Dreaming is the only other logical choice. I'd have to say the East Coast fillies are as bad as any group I ever saw.

I dont know what has happened but this years two year old fillies are dreadful. Typically we have at least 1 standout. This year they are awful. Ever horse that enters into the gate on 11/4/06 for the BCJF has a legitimate shot at winning. If this race is part of the pick 6 it is going to be very hard not to go 7-9 deep.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I dont know what has happened but this years two year old fillies are dreadful. Typically we have at least 1 standout. This year they are awful. Ever horse that enters into the gate on 11/4/06 for the BCJF has a legitimate shot at winning. If this race is part of the pick 6 it is going to be very hard not to go 7-9 deep.

It just happens my man. Seems like every year there is one division that is below par.