3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

Correct.

Though, now that I think about that dazzling logic you just used on me, I think that yeah, since neither Joe Vann or Brethren can win the Derby, then absolutely, R Heat Lightning is an immortal lock!!!

Everything is perfectly fugging clear now.

Your brain is made out of marshmallow.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

Uncle Mo's Wood effort basically confirmed he's somewhere between Favorite Trick and Fly So Free in terms of Derby potential. I wonder how he would have fared in the Florida Derby. If he was truly a short horse, I suppose he would have got buried even worse than in NY, but conversely, maybe as you say he was simply a sitting duck on the lead at Aqueduct, and theoretically could have established a stalking position at GP.

Maybe it was going to happen even if Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial as planned, but it's interesting that Pletcher is throwing everything he's got in his barn at the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. I wonder if he'll scrape up anything left for the Lexington.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Correct.

Though, now that I think about that dazzling logic you just used on me, I think that yeah, since neither Joe Vann or Brethren can win the Derby, then absolutely, R Heat Lightning is an immortal lock!!!

Everything is perfectly fugging clear now.

Your brain is made out of marshmallow.

Maybe you thought my second comment was sarcastic. . . it wasn't. My point was that saying you'd take Joe Vann or Brethren over R Heat Lightning is like saying you'd take Scavs over PG1985 in the NYC marathon. . . Either way, they're all hopeless.

I don't know why I bother responding to you when it comes to discussing something that sort of pertains to handicapping. You're good for two things: Predictably obsessing over Indian Charlie, and stroking DrugS'. . . ego.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Uncle Mo's Wood effort basically confirmed he's somewhere between Favorite Trick and Fly So Free in terms of Derby potential. I wonder how he would have fared in the Florida Derby. If he was truly a short horse, I suppose he would have got buried even worse than in NY, but conversely, maybe as you say he was simply a sitting duck on the lead at Aqueduct, and theoretically could have established a stalking position at GP.

Maybe it was going to happen even if Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial as planned, but it's interesting that Pletcher is throwing everything he's got in his barn at the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. I wonder if he'll scrape up anything left for the Lexington.

Even though I still have Uncle Mo's chances of winning at 18.5% - meaning I'd gladly take 10/1 on him now - but wouldn't touch 5/1 - I think it's clear Dialed In is infintiely the most likely horse to run 1-2-3 at this point.

UM's big Churchill win came off of a 94 figure Champagne win. His Wood performance was no worse than his Champagne race IMO - though, you'd sure expect a 3yo this time of year to improve over a 2nd career start at age 2.

To me - UM's not going to run 3rd in a race like the Derby ... he's either off the Superfecta ticket or he wins .. perhaps could run 2nd - though that's even less likely than him winning IMO.

Dialed In might be 14.5% to win .. but he might be 20% to run 3rd.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

stroking DrugS'. . . ego.

I can assure you I have no ego.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I can assure you I have no ego.

You should have one. . . unlike your #1 fan.

[DaTruth]

Perhaps Pletcher has been thinking Triple Crown all along with Uncle Mo, and after assessing the competition and reading all the posts here about how the wheels would fall off after Uncle Mo won the Derby, has trained him accordingly. The Wood was intended to be the first race off the shelf following the Timely Writer public work.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Maybe you thought my second comment was sarcastic. . . it wasn't. My point was that saying you'd take Joe Vann or Brethren over R Heat Lightning is like saying you'd take Scavs over PG1985 in the NYC marathon. . . Either way, they're all hopeless.

I don't know why I bother responding to you when it comes to discussing something that sort of pertains to handicapping. You're good for two things: Predictably obsessing over Indian Charlie, and stroking DrugS'. . . ego.

Most of the things I say about Indian Charlie are tongue in cheek, but I'm starting to get the feeling that you have the mentality of a Johnny Pinwheel or TFF, minus the abrasiveness. Your ability to discern any sort of subtlety from what you see or read is non existent.

As for DrugS. Are you serious? I rip on that mofo probably more than anyone on here.

I do respect his ability with the horses, and he is one of the truly more interesting posters on here because of his ability to think outside the same, narrow, self imposed lines that people draw for themselves.

You are, however, way off base if you think I'm stroking his ego. He's a freaking ****** in real life.

I'll tell you what. From now on, if you like, I'll preface any posts pertaining to IC or DrugS with an explanation of whether I'm serious, half serious, mostly not serious, or completely joking. That way you can keep your brain on auto pilot.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Most of the things I say about Indian Charlie are tongue in cheek, but I'm starting to get the feeling that you have the mentality of a Johnny Pinwheel or TFF, minus the abrasiveness. Your ability to discern any sort of subtlety from what you see or read is non existent.

As for DrugS. Are you serious? I rip on that mofo probably more than anyone on here.

I do respect his ability with the horses, and he is one of the truly more interesting posters on here because of his ability to think outside the same, narrow, self imposed lines that people draw for themselves.

You are, however, way off base if you think I'm stroking his ego. He's a freaking ****** in real life.

I'll tell you what. From now on, if you like, I'll preface any posts pertaining to IC or DrugS with an explanation of whether I'm serious, half serious, mostly not serious, or completely joking. That way you can keep your brain on auto pilot.

If it's tongue in cheek, then you really need a new gimmick. You're the one who misunderstood what I was saying and concluded that my brain was "marshmallow" (rather hilarious). . . I can assure you - if I ever miss the masterful subtlety of one of your posts, it's because I can't be bothered to wade through all the bullshit.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'll tell you what. From now on, if you like, I'll preface any posts pertaining to IC or DrugS with an explanation of whether I'm serious, half serious, mostly not serious, or completely joking. That way you can keep your brain on auto pilot.

There is no need for that. Management has spared no expense by providing us with an array of smilies to serve as visual cues.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If it's tongue in cheek, then you really need a new gimmick. You're the one who misunderstood what I was saying and concluded that my brain was "marshmallow" (rather hilarious). . . I can assure you - if I ever miss the masterful subtlety of one of your posts, it's because I can't be bothered to wade through all the bullshit.

You've been on DT longer than I have.

It was not until maybe the last year or so that I started doing my IC shtick. Prior to that, I barely mentioned my namesake.

I thought it would be pretty obvious that after several years of being restrained and fairly objective about my favorite horse, that I was teasing PG1985 and Betsy, and their rather over the top enthusiasm over their favorite stallions.

Those would be Giants Causeway for PG1985 and anything AP Indy for Betsy, in case you didn't figure it out.

Perhaps you never really paid any attention to my posts, which is fine, but you sure seem to be lately, so I doubt that is it.

This leads to the most likely conclusion that you are humorless.

And yeah, you know what, people who are so single minded, to me, they have brains of marshmallow.

As for misunderstanding your post about RHL, I did not misunderstand it at all. It was nonsensical, and I treated it as such.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

You've been on DT longer than I have.
It was not until maybe the last year or so that I started doing my IC shtick. Prior to that, I barely mentioned my namesake.
I thought it would be pretty obvious that after several years of being restrained and fairly objective about my favorite horse, that I was teasing PG1985 and Betsy, and their rather over the top enthusiasm over their favorite stallions.
Those would be Giants Causeway for PG1985 and anything AP Indy for Betsy, in case you didn't figure it out.
Perhaps you never really paid any attention to my posts, which is fine, but you sure seem to be lately, so I doubt that is it.
This leads to the most likely conclusion that you are humorless.
And yeah, you know what, people who are so single minded, to me, they have brains of marshmallow.
As for misunderstanding your post about RHL, I did not misunderstand it at all. It was nonsensical, and I treated it as such.

You're still way off, but that's ok. I'm certainly not humorless or single-minded. . . I guess I just don't find you funny and don't care to seek out my daily source of levity here.

I can tell when you're joking (or trying to), but it's clear at times that when the conversation is about Uncle Mo, you're just as incapable of being objective as the two posters you've so brilliantly fashioned your (supposed) elaborate parody after.

I don't find anything objectionable in your posts, but I also don't really see anything of particular merit or worth. When have you ever given a real opinion and supported it with anything persuasive? That's why I find your relationship with Doug so interesting - he's a brilliant handicapper, and you're just the guy commenting in his threads with sock jokes, but for some reason he gives you the time of day. The difference between you and him is that he can offer both worthwhile information and actual humor, all you've got is the latter. . . or your best attempt. Or is the whole "I'm joking all the time" act just to insulate yourself from your mediocre opinion?

Your vague comments about Uncle Mo's performance Saturday certainly weren't aimed at comedy, but they didn't offer anything of substance either. Thanks for pointing out that a horse who was lumbering home for third didn't seem to be running his best, though. Or was there some joke that I wasn't in on? Man, you're so good at making me feel stupid (insert sarcasm emoticon).

You took great offense--and offended in turn--to me pointing out that your discussion about R Heat Lightning vs. Joe Vann/Brethren was ridiculous because two of the three runners weren't even going to compete and the third was an exposed bum (he only has a 0.50% chance of winning according to "Savantore"). How am I the nonsensical one in that scenario? Maybe your point was "R Heat Lightning is so hopeless that I would take two other hopeless horses who also have no shot before her." If so, could you spell that out better for us slow folk next time? Mine was a passing comment - there was no room for any logic to even get twisted around.

You're pretty easy to figure out. . . You're the guy who likes to create the illusion of intelligence by pegging others as "retards," "Zentards," or any other group you can oh so cleverly add "tard" to. In going back to read your posts - I got through one page, and it's disturbing how many of them involve some vain attempt to assert your perceived intelligence. No reasonably intelligent person would devote so much energy to that pursuit.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He's a freaking ****** in real life.

Pippy would disagree.

He drove all the way from the Jersey Shore to Saratoga - just to spend a day at the track with me ... and he happened to pick the only day in Saratoga history when they cancelled the entire card before the first race -because of heat.

And - Pippy - a 2nd time - drove all the way to Saratoga from the Jersey Shore the following week.

Now, if I was truly an A-hole - I would have just said a quick hello and went about my routine of standing by the video replay tv's all day - and betting from there.

However, being the good guy that I truly am - after the Siro's Seminar I introduced Pippy to America's hottest tv handicapper at the current moment.

I let Pippy buy me a seat upstairs next to him - I let him buy me a hot dog, fries, and large pop from Nathen's for lunch - and I sat with him for the entire card .... it was like a Make-A-Wish Foundation event type thingy for him.

[Sightseek]

People take the internet way to seriously.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Most of the things I say about Indian Charlie are tongue in cheek, but I'm starting to get the feeling that you have the mentality of a Johnny Pinwheel or TFF, minus the abrasiveness. Your ability to discern any sort of subtlety from what you see or read is non existent.

As for DrugS. Are you serious? I rip on that mofo probably more than anyone on here.

I do respect his ability with the horses, and he is one of the truly more interesting posters on here because of his ability to think outside the same, narrow, self imposed lines that people draw for themselves.

You are, however, way off base if you think I'm stroking his ego. He's a freaking ****** in real life.

I'll tell you what. From now on, if you like, I'll preface any posts pertaining to IC or DrugS with an explanation of whether I'm serious, half serious, mostly not serious, or completely joking. That way you can keep your brain on auto pilot.

its hard not to be abrasive here...especially the crap that qualifies for betting knowledge....then again some one has to stir the pot. then you talk about "thinking outside the lines"....theres not many here besides me that do that....this is bandwagon central....thats part of the reason i'm abrasive(i don't follow the lemmings). how many times have you seen me say...."this horse can't lose"...or the classic....."the rest are running for second". this is horse racing, there is no such thing as "superman" or "santa claus". almost every horse can and will lose at some point. i'll give credit where its due though....hes absolutely right you can't bet uncle mo at under 10-1....but somehow he gives the horse an almost 20% chance of winning...makes perfect sense in the derby trail world.....i just have trouble reading and digesting the hype. people are right this crap is useful....it builds confidence......lol. that horse probably has a 20% chance of missing the top 4....so hes right there too. i'm not always right but i am alot and i have the balls to give a non-standard opinion. people just hate that.....you think i don't know i'm a pain in the ass too.....lol. i try to make people think for themselves which is the key to success when you are gambling on anything!!!!!! you can be a "fan" all you want and you'll lose all the time too. i've been reading here since the big brown is the best dilemma of 2008....lol

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You're still way off, but that's ok. I'm certainly not humorless or single-minded. . . I guess I just don't find you funny and don't care to seek out my daily source of levity here.

I can tell when you're joking (or trying to), but it's clear at times that when the conversation is about Uncle Mo, you're just as incapable of being objective as the two posters you've so brilliantly fashioned your (supposed) elaborate parody after.

I don't find anything objectionable in your posts, but I also don't really see anything of particular merit or worth. When have you ever given a real opinion and supported it with anything persuasive? That's why I find your relationship with Doug so interesting - he's a brilliant handicapper, and you're just the guy commenting in his threads with sock jokes, but for some reason he gives you the time of day. The difference between you and him is that he can offer both worthwhile information and actual humor, all you've got is the latter. . . or your best attempt. Or is the whole "I'm joking all the time" act just to insulate yourself from your mediocre opinion?

Your vague comments about Uncle Mo's performance Saturday certainly weren't aimed at comedy, but they didn't offer anything of substance either. Thanks for pointing out that a horse who was lumbering home for third didn't seem to be running his best, though. Or was there some joke that I wasn't in on? Man, you're so good at making me feel stupid (insert sarcasm emoticon).

You took great offense--and offended in turn--to me pointing out that your discussion about R Heat Lightning vs. Joe Vann/Brethren was ridiculous because two of the three runners weren't even going to compete and the third was an exposed bum (he only has a 0.50% chance of winning according to "Savantore"). How am I the nonsensical one in that scenario? Maybe your point was "R Heat Lightning is so hopeless that I would take two other hopeless horses who also have no shot before her." If so, could you spell that out better for us slow folk next time? Mine was a passing comment - there was no room for any logic to even get twisted around.

You're pretty easy to figure out. . . You're the guy who likes to create the illusion of intelligence by pegging others as "retards," "Zentards," or any other group you can oh so cleverly add "tard" to. In going back to read your posts - I got through one page, and it's disturbing how many of them involve some vain attempt to assert your perceived intelligence. No reasonably intelligent person would devote so much energy to that pursuit.

Dude, you have me pegged perfectly. I think you might have missed your calling by not getting into the mental health field.

To address a couple of points beyond your brilliant insight into my illusion of intelligence:

When I have a fairly strong opinion on something, I post it. I'm not one to throw out a zillion ideas or opinions just because I can. If something is really obvious, why state it? If my belief in something is minimal, again, why post it?

True, I don't go through a card and post my picks for the day, if that's what you are talking about. That is simply not my interest. However, many times I've gone against the grain, or popular opinion on a well known horse, and I've almost always been right.

I'd also be curious as to where I've posted anything resembling mindless adoration for Uncle Mo. When not in jest anyways, which you claim to be able to tell from a more serious toned post.

Finally, as for taking great offense to R Heat Lighting winning the Derby. I did no such thing. It's a preposterous idea, and I let you know it. Just because I posted an opinion (a true rarity!) that was sharply different than yours, doesn't mean I took offense.

In fact, I think the only time I took offense at anything on here was when Smooth Operatard (oops, there I go again) cut me down hard with his Loser1 crack.

Oh yeah, the Dougie thing. He gives me the time of day because he knows that I, in his own words, 'think outside the box' and that I often see things a lot of people miss. Which is why I give him the time of day as well.

That, and I'm not a tard!

As for you, maybe you are not humorless and single minded in real life, but you do seem to be here, which is all I can go on. Lighten up a little bit and try to realize not everyone here has the same objectives, or viewpoints as you.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

People take the internet way to seriously.

Yes, they do.

I'm certainly guilty of that right now.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Pippy would disagree.

He drove all the way from the Jersey Shore to Saratoga - just to spend a day at the track with me ... and he happened to pick the only day in Saratoga history when they cancelled the entire card before the first race -because of heat.

And - Pippy - a 2nd time - drove all the way to Saratoga from the Jersey Shore the following week.

Now, if I was truly an A-hole - I would have just said a quick hello and went about my routine of standing by the video replay tv's all day - and betting from there.

However, being the good guy that I truly am - after the Siro's Seminar I introduced Pippy to America's hottest tv handicapper at the current moment.

I let Pippy buy me a seat upstairs next to him - I let him buy me a hot dog, fries, and large pop from Nathen's for lunch - and I sat with him for the entire card .... it was like a Make-A-Wish Foundation event type thingy for him.

His description of his date with you that day was pretty funny.

Can you believe he actually called you cheap?

And did you really inflict Pippy on poor Serling? I hoped you warned Serling beforehand not to say anything that Pip might perceive in a harmful way.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

its hard not to be abrasive here...especially the crap that qualifies for betting knowledge....then again some one has to stir the pot. then you talk about "thinking outside the lines"....theres not many here besides me that do that....this is bandwagon central....thats part of the reason i'm abrasive(i don't follow the lemmings). how many times have you seen me say...."this horse can't lose"...or the classic....."the rest are running for second". this is horse racing, there is no such thing as "superman" or "santa claus". almost every horse can and will lose at some point. i'll give credit where its due though....hes absolutely right you can't bet uncle mo at under 10-1....but somehow he gives the horse an almost 20% chance of winning...makes perfect sense in the derby trail world.....i just have trouble reading and digesting the hype. people are right this crap is useful....it builds confidence......lol. that horse probably has a 20% chance of missing the top 4....so hes right there too. i'm not always right but i am alot and i have the balls to give a non-standard opinion. people just hate that.....you think i don't know i'm a pain in the ass too.....lol. i try to make people think for themselves which is the key to success when you are gambling on anything!!!!!! you can be a "fan" all you want and you'll lose all the time too.

Honestly, I shouldn't have lumped you together with TFF.

That out of the way though, what makes you say you think outside the lines? You really rarely say anything on here that would show that. Most of the time you blast people for being dumb only after the fact, and you seem pretty serious about it.

Which is, I guess, kind of ironic, as that is something that I think I just got accused of myself!