Travers Field

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Wasn't talking about you, was talking about the comment that the premier race at Toga was a seven horse field.

I know--I was just commenting.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Graveyard for Favs......
Watch out for Minister Bid with Mr. Prado !

[2MinsToPost]

I meant no offense to anyone about the field size, ie slotdirt etc..

Strictly an observation and opinion. I love a full field, say 9 plus loading in the gate. Quality is not the issue in the Travers of course.

[slotdirt]

Short fields don't mean great races though. That CompUSA Dixie on the Preakness undercard this year was stellar.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Cheap speed is a non-factor. Kip is a nothing horse and will have no effect on this race. There is no way his presence should affect any other horse. They can let him go out there and get 15 in front if he wants to because he's shown that he can't finish even when running shorter distances so he'll come back to them here too.

I agree, but it looks like he'll only go if either Bernardini or BC scratch. So, that leaves High Cotton.......but he's just not this good.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I agree, but it looks like he'll only go if either Bernardini or BC scratch. So, that leaves High Cotton.......but he's just not this good.

If I were the trainer of Bernardini, I'd be more worried about the pace if Kip is not in the race. That would make High Cotton the apparent pace setter and while I don't see him as being up to beating this kind of field, I think he's a little bit too talented to just let him waltz alone up front and since he's won three stakes at 8.5f and finished second in another at 9f, I don't think he'd come back to them as fast as Kip would. So he's a horse that u have to pay a bit more attention to up front and maybe have to altar your strategy a little bit. That's what I was trying to say earlier. Pace is important in racing but it's more important to note what kind of horse is setting that pace and how contested a pace is rather than what the fractions are. I think slower fractions with High Cotton are more dangerous than faster ones with Kip.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If I were the trainer of Bernardini, I'd be more worried about the pace if Kip is not in the race. That would make High Cotton the apparent pace setter and while I don't see him as being up to beating this kind of field, I think he's a little bit too talented to just let him waltz alone up front and since he's won three stakes at 8.5f and finished second in another at 9f, I don't think he'd come back to them as fast as Kip would. So he's a horse that u have to pay a bit more attention to up front and maybe have to altar your strategy a little bit. That's what I was trying to say earlier. Pace is important in racing but it's more important to note what kind of horse is setting that pace and how contested a pace is rather than what the fractions are. I think slower fractions with High Cotton are more dangerous than faster ones with Kip.

He's definitely a nice horse, but I think Castellano would assume a stalking position and move when the time was right (unless Bernardini wanted to move earlier). Bernardini has such a quick turn of foot that he might be past High Cotton before he could respond.....I'm playing out all the possible scenarios in my head, but frankly, I'm just ready for the race already.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by 2 Dollar Bill

Graveyard for Favs......
Watch out for Minister Bid with Mr. Prado !

Agreed. I was waiting to read a post like this. This race sets up for Minister's Bid.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

The speed hurts Bluegrass Cat more so than Bernardini. Bernardini doesnt need the lead, not did he want it in the Jim Dandy. He just inheirted the lead because the other horses sucked so bad. Bernardini will win by 5. I dont know why people are excited about this race. I mean we have a good field and I love that, but Bernardini handles this field with ease.

Agree that BC's chances are damaged with a rabbit in the mix. I also believe that his best chance was to wire the field or benefit from some soft pace.

[Gander]

Bluegrass Cat, wire a field? When has he shown enough speed to wire a field?
Hes not a speed horse. I think he takes back here, maybe sits 5th or 6th and hope the pace falls apart and makes one late run but falls very short of catching Bernardini. He'll be all out to get 2nd from the other Pletcher horse.

Beating Bellamy Road and Roman Ruler are one thing but beating Bernardini is quite another. Pletecher has a very tall task in front of him to get another Travers. But it would be a feather in his cap if he could pull it off.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Gander

Bluegrass Cat, wire a field? When has he shown enough speed to wire a field?
Hes not a speed horse. I think he takes back here, maybe sits 5th or 6th and hope the pace falls apart and makes one late run but falls very short of catching Bernardini. He'll be all out to get 2nd from the other Pletcher horse.

Beating Bellamy Road and Roman Ruler are one thing but beating Bernardini is quite another. Pletecher has a very tall task in front of him to get another Travers. But it would be a feather in his cap if he could pull it off.

Man, you love to be negative about horses. Bellamy Road was not ready to run that day, and although Roman Ruler certainly isn't a world beater, he was just coming off a couple of VERY nice wins heading into the Travers. Last year's performance by Flower Alley in the Travers was very, very gutty.

[Gander]

Yes it was a great performance but one that surprised very few people. Roman Ruler was quite overrated and Bellamy Road was coming off a lengthly layoff running on a track not favoring early speed.

If Bluegrass Cat beats Bernardini, it would be a bigger surprise than Flower Alley beating those 2 last year. Not impossible by any means but lets face it, Bernardini has the look of someone really special. I dont think anyone confused Roman Ruler with that kind of horse. And I doubt Flower Alley would have beaten Bellamy Road when he was 100% back in the spring.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Gander

Yes it was a great performance but one that surprised very few people. Roman Ruler was quite overrated and Bellamy Road was coming off a lengthly layoff running on a track not favoring early speed.

If Bluegrass Cat beats Bernardini, it would be a bigger surprise than Flower Alley beating those 2 last year. Not impossible by any means but lets face it, Bernardini has the look of someone really special. I dont think anyone confused Roman Ruler with that kind of horse. And I doubt Flower Alley would have beaten Bellamy Road when he was 100% back in the spring.

I don't know that f'ing Man o' War would have beaten Bellamy Road in his Wood. That was a performance for the ages; even the biggest Bellamy Road bashers would admit to that.

That being said, obviously beating Bernardini would be a crowning achievement for Bluegrass Cat, but I think he can do it. No horse is invincible, and I'm not certain Bernardini has really faced supremely quality competition quite yet. This Travers will surely be a test.

[Gander]

I agree and give Bluegrass Cat high praises for that Haskell win. That was one of the best performances I've seen all year from a 3 year old. Bernardini will have his toughest test to date but like so many others on here, I think this is the horse we've all been waiting for and I think the presence of that rabbit Kip De Ville will only enhance his chances for a large margin of victory here. I'm psyched for Saturday.

[slotdirt]

I think there's a decent chance both Bernardini AND Bluegrass Cat could be compromised by the pace in this race. Just a thought.

[Gander]

Stranger things have happened and if there is anyone this benefits most its High Cotton who will have a cheap speed target to run at. He should get 1st run on Kip and ya never know. If I were going to try and beat Bernardini, I would do it with High Cotton before I did it with BGC. Probably3 times the price and a much better scenario in my opinion.

[Smooth Operator]

Bluegrass Cat only had to shoulder 118 in the Haskell. He gets eight more and an extra furlong here. Has never won a race toting more than 122.

Bernardini by at least a couple….

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Bluegrass Cat only had to shoulder 118 in the Haskell. He gets eight more and an extra furlong here. Has never won a race toting more than 122.

Bernardini by at least a couple….

That's a good stat if we knew how many times he's toted more than 122. I'm guessing that would be precisely twice.

Originally Posted by Gander

Stranger things have happened and if there is anyone this benefits most its High Cotton who will have a cheap speed target to run at. He should get 1st run on Kip and ya never know. If I were going to try and beat Bernardini, I would do it with High Cotton before I did it with BGC. Probably3 times the price and a much better scenario in my opinion.

Gander I wouldnt agree more. I would use High Cotton way before I would use Bluegrass Cat. I truly believe that Bluegrass Cat has got to be in front of Bernardini to have a chance of beating him. But High Cotton is the one (other than Bernardini) that is going to get the dream trip and like you said--3x the odds or more than BC. I love BC, prob my fav horse heading into thos years 3 year old season. But I cannot see him winning this race. Weight and distance are not a problem, just the race that is going to develop is not for him.

[hockey2315]

Just so everyone knows, Kip will only run if BGC or Bernardini scratch. . . He'll probably end up running in the Super Derby.