Anybody See the 6th at Laurel Today?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

AQU R7: #3 Hello Gold

CHECKED INSIDE at the rear of the pack going into the turn and had to take back

YET

she somehow, miraculously, worked her way between horses, came wide entering and got up late.

another horse that wins after checking inside

Hello Gold slightly checked before they even got to the turn. That check cost the horse about a length of position. The horse was about 5 lengths back before the check and was no more than 6 lengths back after the check. The horse had no more than 1 length of trouble total.

You can't even compare this horse's trip to the other horse's trip. Hello Gold had a pretty good trip overall. Cowboy Gets Even was 2 lengths back before he got in tight. After he got done checking, he was 10 lengths back.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Hello Gold slightly checked before they even got to the turn. That check cost the horse about a length of position. The horse was about 5 lengths back before the check and was no more than 6 lengths back after the check. The horse had no more than 1 length of trouble total.

You can't even compare this horse's trip to the other horse's trip. Hello Gold had a pretty good trip overall. Cowboy Gets Even was 2 lengths back before he got in tight. After he got done checking, he was 10 lengths back.

My mistake. Keep posting these TRIP GEMS. I'll be looking for them, and waiting to bet out.

[blackthroatedwind]

The point that I tried to make, and the Fat Man tried as well, is that this horse's trip is pretty much irrelevent. Yes, he had a little trouble, so yes his running line is slightly less good than it could be, but you can't just pinpoint supposed " trouble " without taking the ENTIRE trip into account....and this horse had some good happen to him as well. Most people ignore this....which is a mistake.

None of this means the horse in reference couldn't turn out to be a decent horse, I'm dubious but it's not like there is a herd of Seattle Slews out there right now, but his trip is a lot more incidental, at least in the opinion of two of us, than you seem to believe.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

My mistake. Keep posting these TRIP GEMS. I'll be looking for them, and waiting to bet out.

You presented that race as if it was the same situation as Rupert's race. Rupert looked at your race, and posted how it looked to him like a very different situation for the horse involved. Instead of addressing what Rupert saw as a major difference in the level of trouble, you choose to post more insults.

Here's why I think a less sarcastic response was called for. By bringing up the other race, I assume you were trying to show that ordinary horses routinely win with the kind of trip Rupert's horse had. Shouldn't you have picked a horse that DID have the same kind of trip to make that point?

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

Whether you are a speed figure guy or not, the 65 Beyer he was awarded has to damper the enthusiasm does it not?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Whether you are a speed figure guy or not, the 65 Beyer he was awarded has to damper the enthusiasm does it not?

Just a tad

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Whether you are a speed figure guy or not, the 65 Beyer he was awarded has to damper the enthusiasm does it not?

No, not at all. As I said, I thought the horse would have won by 9-10 lengths with an outside post. So what kind of Beyer would he have gotten if he would have won by 10? Maybe an 81 or so?

In that other thread about which 2 year old prospects (3 year olds now) that we like, I mentioned a couple of horses that didn't run particularly fast and they both came back and won stakes races. One was Uptowncharlybrown (he got a 77 Beyer). The other horse was Bear's Hard Ten. I can't remember what he got but I think it was in the 70s.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

No, not at all. As I said, I thought the horse would have won by 9-10 lengths with an outside post. So what kind of Beyer would he have gotten if he would have won by 10? Maybe an 81 or so?

In that other thread about which 2 year old prospects (3 year olds now) that we like, I mentioned a couple of horses that didn't run particularly fast and they both came back and won stakes races. One was Uptowncharlybrown (he got a 77 Beyer). The other horse was Bear's Hard Ten. I can't remember what he got but I think it was in the 70s.

If you are going to remind us about your successes, please feel free to throw in a few not so spectacular opinions.....or don't do it at all.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you are going to remind us about your successes, please feel free to throw in a few not so spectacular opinions.....or don't do it at all.

Alright, I could do that. I didn't post it on this board but there is a horse named Jet Set Vinny who broke his maiden first-time out at the Medowlands over a year ago. I thought he had a great chance to be a stakes horse. He didn't turn out to be a very good horse. He's only won one race since his maiden win and it was in a $60k claiming race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Alright, I could do that. I didn't post it on this board but there is a horse named Jet Set Vinny who broke his maiden first-time out at the Medowlands over a year ago. I thought he had a great chance to be a stakes horse. He didn't turn out to be a very good horse. He's only won one race since his maiden win and it was in a $60k claiming race.

I bet him once....that day at Saratoga.

I was waiting for him to be in the right spot after you pointed him out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In case anyone was looking for an update on this thread ....

Cowboy Gets Even returned to run 2nd in an ALW race at Laurel. His Beyer did improve 3 points to a 69.

Tempted to Tapit ran 2nd in the Risen Star at 8/1.

[the_fat_man]

$3 to place, $2.40 to show and completed a $15 exacta under the favorite. But, more importantly, he bumped up his Beyer 3 full points.

These are the kind of gems that TROUBLE TRIP handicapping gets you. This is why there's a whole army of bettors out there following the NYRA gang and watching all these races so carefully (for trouble).

Well DONE.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

$3 to place, $2.40 to show and completed a $15 exacta under the favorite. But, more importantly, he bumped up his Beyer 3 full points.

I only mentioned the speed figure part to needle Rupert a little. The horse was very slow on everyones figs - and he said it didn't matter.

That is certainly not a horse I was interested in at all... and certainly not a trip handicappers type of 'look to playback' horse.

In fact, I wasn't even aware that he ran back until earlier tonight when I did a little work on another track. I don't bet Laurel.

[Rupert Pupkin]

After the win with the troubled trip, the biggest question in my mind was whether or not the horse came out of the race in one piece. I think the answer is no. After that race, he didn't come back and work for 18 days. Then after that work, he didn't come back and work for 17 days and that work was a 3 furlong work, two days before his race.

I highly doubt this horse was doing well coming into this race and I highly doubt he ran anything close to his best. We may never know for sure. It will be interesting to see if he takes a long vacation.

By the way, even according to the infallible Beyer numbers, he didn't run anything close to his best. He ran a 78 Beyer in his debut.

There is also a chance I could be wrong about the horse's ability. It wouldn't be the first or the last time.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think he just beat a TERRIBLE field in that Laurel win and you're reaching a bit for excuses. Look how the horses he beat have faired.....

The horse who was 2nd to him came back as the even money betting favorite in his next start and was beaten 8 lengths by a 2nd time starter who got beat a mere 27 lengths in his debut.

The 3rd place finisher from his win got beat 6.5 lengths at 8/5 odds in his next start.

The 4th place finisher was beaten 19 lengths and 14.5 lengths in his next two starts - the latter trouncing coming for a 25K maiden claiming tag.

As Mr. Eloquence said earlier in the thread - "there are no trips in slow races" .. or something like that.

While I wouldn't disagree that he was visually impressive in victory when you watch the race ... it obviously had a whole lot more to do with the bums that were running behind him.

The prettiest girl at the fat camp always looks irresistible ... until she surrounds herself with better company.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

As Mr. Eloquence said earlier in the thread - "there are no trips in slow races" .. or something like that.

If racing consisted of a time trail format, this would be true. However, racing, as presently contested, is all about MATCHUPS. It's about which horse has an advantage given the way the race figures to be run. As such, FAST really doesn't figure into it as much as some would think AND, it follows, that trips have pretty much nothing to do with FAST (excepting the very obvious cases of fast/slow fractions.) Of course, I'm referring to how a horse ran in terms of the setup of the race NOT how many times it steadied going around the track.

Mr Eloquence is also on record as insisting that horses don't like to run inside. Yet another track/handicapping truism that's just wrong yet continues to be thrown around by even those who really should know better.

This really isn't the proper way to 'educate' those new to the game.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If racing consisted of a time trail format, this would be true. However, racing, as presently contested, is all about MATCHUPS. It's about which horse has an advantage given the way the race figures to be run. As such, FAST really doesn't figure into it as much as some would think AND, it follows, that trips have pretty much nothing to do with FAST (excepting the very obvious cases of fast/slow fractions.) Of course, I'm referring to how a horse ran in terms of the setup of the race NOT how many times it steadied going around the track.

Mr Eloquence is also on record as insisting that horses don't like to run inside. Yet another track/handicapping truism that's just wrong yet continues to be thrown around by even those who really should know better.

This really isn't the proper way to 'educate' those new to the game.

Serling is doing an amazing job..Since his involvement at NYRA the product is immensly better and peopleare given an opportunity to learn and be privy to his experience and love for the sport.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Fat Man is an embittered fool that speaks jibberish that bears no semblence of truth. It's actually comical.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

btw is the reason nyra has any credibilty in its pre race analysis.and for that
matter the its the best of all site feed programing.hrtv/tvg ect.

[the_fat_man]

This from someone who was just recently whining about getting beat at 12:1 by an inside trip from Dominguez (the ride of the year, in fact) while his horse was getting the Johnny V trip.

The IRONY was lost on him.

I'm embittered. I really want to be a BEYERITE.