Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #41  
Old 08-10-2006, 05:40 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Phoenix Reach is my pick. I hope his odds stay decent.
I don't think you'll have to worry about his odds staying decent. With no race in a year and no good race in 14 months, you'll get better than the ML 5-1, IMO.

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 08-10-2006, 06:11 AM
GPK GPK is offline
5'8".. but all man!
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: 3 miles from Chateuax de la Blaha
Posts: 21,706
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
I don't think you'll have to worry about his odds staying decent. With no race in a year and no good race in 14 months, you'll get better than the ML 5-1, IMO.

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

--Dunbar

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 08-10-2006, 08:20 AM
tiznowthegreat tiznowthegreat is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 360
Default

In the words of the great Kenny Mayne:
I'm only saying it once - Touch of Land
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 08-10-2006, 08:34 AM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

Kev- I am thinking you may at best get 7/2 on English Channel. Which isnt a bad price if you believe in him. Nothing wrong with a horse that pays $9 and change. You all in on your $100 usual bet? Nothing this horse does would lead me to say not to make that bet, so good luck.

I may or may not get involved here. Depends on what the Saratoga card looks like and what prices I can get. I'm looking to make a solid $200 win bet on something in the 3/1 - 5/1 range (if not higher).

WIth EC leaving town, the Sword Dancer looks like a bust betting wise, unless you can find a horse to beat Relaxed Gesture. Hes tough to take at a very short price, yet tough to bet against for the sake of him being a favorite.
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 08-10-2006, 08:38 AM
GPK GPK is offline
5'8".. but all man!
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: 3 miles from Chateuax de la Blaha
Posts: 21,706
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Kev- I am thinking you may at best get 7/2 on English Channel. Which isnt a bad price if you believe in him. Nothing wrong with a horse that pays $9 and change. You all in on your $100 usual bet? Nothing this horse does would lead me to say not to make that bet, so good luck.

I may or may not get involved here. Depends on what the Saratoga card looks like and what prices I can get. I'm looking to make a solid $200 win bet on something in the 3/1 - 5/1 range (if not higher).

WIth EC leaving town, the Sword Dancer looks like a bust betting wise, unless you can find a horse to beat Relaxed Gesture. Hes tough to take at a very short price, yet tough to bet against for the sake of him being a favorite.
3-1 or higher, im in for a buck. Anything under that, in that field, $50
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 08-10-2006, 10:26 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.
Okay, I made a quick fair odds line for the race: Like I thought, I have no horse under 5-1.

English Channel 5-1
Tin Man, Cacique, Ace, Touch of Land 7-1
Soldier Hollow, Phoenix Ranch, Better Talk Now 10-1 (that's a wild guess on Phoenix)
Cosmonaut 25-1
Major Rhythm 50-1

Before bashing any of these assignments, make sure your final line adds to 100%. For example, if you think English Channel should be 3-1, then who are you going to raise? If you raise Tin Man to 10-1, it gets you less than half way to what you need. You'd have to raise him to 20-1 or raise another of the 7-1's to 10-1 for your odds line to add to 100%.

If you think English Channel should be 2-1, you'll have to do some major readjusting of my odds on several of the horses.

I'll bet Tin Man, Ace, and/or Touch of Land if any of them look to be 9-1 or better. (Even though I think fair odds are 7-1, that isn't good enough to bet. I need plenty of room for error.) I can forget about betting EC or Cacique--I won't see the odds I'd need.

My line might change depending on weather/course and any defections.

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 08-10-2006, 12:06 PM
Scurlogue Champ's Avatar
Scurlogue Champ Scurlogue Champ is offline
Formerly 'moodwalker'
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Louisville
Posts: 1,727
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.
I think he will go off as the favorite Kev, and that is a tragedy. You should get really good odds, but I don't see it happening.
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 08-10-2006, 01:26 PM
pgardn
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.
Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 08-10-2006, 01:45 PM
LARHAGE's Avatar
LARHAGE LARHAGE is offline
Hawthorne
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 545
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig188
i think most everyone would love to see the tin man win, for sentimental reasons for many of us. it sure wouldn't break my heart if he won, altho i do like english channel.
I'm with ya, I would LOVE to see The Tin Man win, if not he than Cacique.
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 08-10-2006, 02:57 PM
GPK GPK is offline
5'8".. but all man!
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: 3 miles from Chateuax de la Blaha
Posts: 21,706
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.
Yeah Pat, I would be pleasantly surprised if I get anything higher than 3-1.
Reply With Quote
  #51  
Old 08-10-2006, 03:02 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
Yeah Pat, I would be pleasantly surprised if I get anything higher than 3-1.
You will get EVERY part of 3/1 and possibly 4/1 on English Channel. All people are talking about around here are the euros
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 08-10-2006, 03:10 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.
I think Kev was only reacting to my statement that I wouldn't bet any horse in the race at 5-1. He doesn't really think he's going to see 5-1 on EC.

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 08-10-2006, 03:40 PM
GPK GPK is offline
5'8".. but all man!
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: 3 miles from Chateuax de la Blaha
Posts: 21,706
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
I think Kev was only reacting to my statement that I wouldn't bet any horse in the race at 5-1. He doesn't really think he's going to see 5-1 on EC.

--Dunbar

No way in he ll I see 5-1 on EC. If I do get that, I will make my biggest wager ever on a horse.
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 08-10-2006, 03:42 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
No way in he ll I see 5-1 on EC. If I do get that, I will make my biggest wager ever on a horse.
LMFAO... don't let that vicodin make decisions for you now... I will be riding Phoenix Reach and you shouldn't discount that.
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 08-10-2006, 03:45 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

What would that win bet be Kevin?

$200? $300?
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 08-10-2006, 03:46 PM
GPK GPK is offline
5'8".. but all man!
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: 3 miles from Chateuax de la Blaha
Posts: 21,706
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
LMFAO... don't let that vicodin make decisions for you now... I will be riding Phoenix Reach and you shouldn't discount that.

speaking of riding...oh...we can talk about that tonight
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 08-12-2006, 04:54 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.
Right as usual, Rupert. I won't embarrass certain others by quoting their opinions of The Tin Man.

He looked awesome today.

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:59 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.