Belmont Fractions

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today.

I was trying to beat the favorites, but double clutched and backed off on the other son of Grindstone.


I have many thoroughbred racing photos and art portraits in this room.

Summer Bird as best I calculate is a great great grandson of Secretariat, and also a great great grandson of Alydar. He has Northern Dancer on both sides, and of course the immediate connections to Kentucky Derby winners Grindstone and Unbridled.


Going way back, there is also Nashua and Mr. Prospector in the bloodline.

I wish I would have won my wager, but other than the money lost I have no problem with Summer Bird's win.

I'm not also 2nd guessing Borel's ride. He rode it as he saw it.

No tears necessary for the connections of Mine That Bird.

Winning the Kentucky Derby and hitting the board in all the Triple Crown races amounts to bragging rights for life.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

He's a horse that has repeatedly shown an amazing burst of speed the other two times he's used those tactics.

I think you're paying a little too much attention to the naked fractions though. The track was super fast. Munnings ran 1:20 3/5ths for crying out loud. Sixthirteen blew the break, was head and head with Fabulous Strike through 43.62 .. and was only beaten 7.25 lengths.

Forget about the naked fractions - Mine That Bird started a half length in front of SB after a mile and was 4 lengths in front of him after 10 furlongs - he basically ran 3.5 lengths faster .. which is like a half a second at that rapid rate of speed.

Summer Bird is a grinder - and he figured to own the final quarter mile of this race - and he did. Mine That Bird hung like rotten salami in the Sunland races and he didn't figure to relish the added quarter mile.

I picked Summer Bird to finish 2nd and I didn't pick Mine That Bird to finish in the top 4 in my selections.

Even though MTB is without a doubt a better horse than SB - I had this extremely bull headed view going in that MTB would probably run awful because of the pace and distance .. and SB would thrive because of those two things.

I think you basically are blaming Borel because he didn't do what Afleet Alex did in his Belmont. If I really thought Mine That Bird was capable of lagging back for 10 and half furlongs and unleashing his huge move in the stretch in a race at that distance - with that pace - wouldn't he be a total slam dunk cinch to win?

I mean, he'd be a genuine 2/5 shot!

I agree with you though - on tape - the ride looks as bad as Real Quiet's.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

it may have been amazing, but in the end, it didn't help him. wooley said he was the best horse in the race...that may be so, but the other birdstone won it. and borel may have moved prematurely, but i don't think that's what cost the horse the race. his kick didn't have that same oomph.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

[Storm Cadet]

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

Probably because they are too focused on your avatar

[Storm Cadet]

BTW my avatar Britney Spears said to say hi to YOU!

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it may have been amazing, but in the end, it didn't help him. wooley said he was the best horse in the race...that may be so, but the other birdstone won it. and borel may have moved prematurely, but i don't think that's what cost the horse the race. his kick didn't have that same oomph.

because he kicked from 7f to 10f...that's when he flew. Just like the Sunland Derby when he kicked from 5f to 8f...nothing left. Borel was no different today than Casey Lambert at Sunland. Running your 5th quarter in a 12f race in 23 flat or slightly below is plenty of oomph to me....just quite a bit mistimed. IF he runs that 5th quarter closer to 24 seconds, I'm guessing he doesn't drown completely the last 8th or quarter. It's all speculation. To me he repeated his Sunland Derby race. He got good rides in the Derby and Preakness waiting to use his 3f kick....His Sunland races and the Belmont were identical. Used too early and then going flat as a pancake the final furlong. I don't know this, but based on his 5 races this year...it seems obvious when you need to move him.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

Really? I think you could look at it like it actually helped him. You could say the events of the trip, forced Desormeaux to be the most patient as the horse was very keen with the blinkers. The events of the trip kept him in check. This was the only horse running the last quarter. I don't believe that at all...several lengths better with a better trip. That's like saying MTB could have won the Derby by 15 lengths if he wasn't squeezed at the start. That's just as wrong....the start helped him that race.

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

The track was obviously fast
so personally I think those fractions are
a deceiving.
Dunkirk got a very good start
and was out there running very comfortably.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by CSC

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

He moved too soon. Yeah, a horse rarely loses taking the lead at the top of the stretch, but again, how many of them had taken the lead running a sub 23 second 5th quarter? I don't care how fast the track is...that is too fast to last in a 12f race. I think it was a clear case of over-confidence by the jockey taking the horse out of what had made him jump up in class. All is always well when you win. Internal fractions did in Smarty Jones, Real Quiet and MTB yesterday. When Summer Bird was the only horse in the race remotely running the last furlong, I can come to no other conclusion that no matter what problems occurred in the trip, he was aided by them. It allowed him to finish the race when no other horse could yesterday.

[Bobby Fischer]

Dunkirk went wayyy too fast early. However he was at no disadvantage compared to the winner Summer Bird.

Summer Bird was only 4 lengths off the pace when they settled.
Those 4 lengths of better pace set-up were cancelled out to some degree by Dunkirk's saving every inch of ground and being on an "easy" lead.
In a 12 furlong race it is possible to go too fast AND be on an easy lead. (ulike say a mile race where if the horse is going too fast he is also going too fast to relax.)
The best initial pace set-up was Mine That Bird who was unable to keep that awesome position late.

and The best set-up of all horses for the entire race was...
drumroll plz.... LUV GOV. He really appreciated his set-up. Everybody went too fast and he got to run 5th as probably the worst horse in the race. He is a bet against hopefully vs. allowance company next out.

[Travis Stone]

The only horse with upside who truly figured to relish the added distance was Summer Bird, being the grinder that he is.

I don't blame anyone for playing the what if game... if Mine That Bird started his steady advance 1 1/2 furlongs later, I think we have at least a photo finish. But that's racing.

[CSC]

Funny how we all see it differently, I see it as if Kent D didn't get himself into a box causing him to check Summer Bird a few times down the backstretch and letting him run a little earlier within the horse's comfort zone, that 2 1/2 length win could have easily been 5 or more, even if MTB moved later as most seem to think he should have.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Funny how we all see it differently, I see it as if Kent D didn't get himself into a box causing him to check Summer Bird a few times down the backstretch and letting him run a little earlier within the horse's comfort zone, that 2 1/2 length win could have easily been 5 or more, even if MTB moved later as most seem to think he should have.

You're kidding right? This horse will probably never get a better setup.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're kidding right? This horse will probably never get a better setup.

Not kidding I believe he could have won by more.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Not kidding I believe he could have won by more.

Brings me back to my childhood days playing basketball over at Vanderveer Park. Every so often a Puerto Rican (typically the playground consisted of a few whites and mostly blacks) would show up and get in a game with us. Now, PR's were notoriously poor outside shooters and we'd almost never pass the ball to them for a jumpshot. But I remember one time, a Rican was on my team and I set him up repeatedly for j's and he just kept missing. Must've gone 0 for 15, or so. Finally, he hits one. And he starts demanding the ball: "I'm HOT man." A 'chucker' was born. And, of course, he proceeded to miss the next 10 in a row (or so).

Yeah

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

Bailey is a comedian, but hey there is name recognition there.

A better question Bailey should have said after the race was if Smith had stayed on MTB for the Belmont would he have won the race, I know Borel is gods gift to riding and the fact he has been a so so rider in a small bond is just the breaks one gets, but Smith has one a couple races at Belmont, maybe even like 10 and he would not have made that move with a dead one run closer.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by CSC

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.

Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:

Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.

He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.

Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.