Declan's Moon...Turf on Thursday

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.

It wouldn't be the first time a reporter messed things up, but after years of hearing and reading Ellis quotes, it seems entirely plausible to me that the reporter got it right.

Unless Rupert (and I respect his opinion more than most people's on here) was a witness, my guess is that Ellis indeed did say what was attributed to him and then blamed the reporter later.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It wouldn't be the first time a reporter messed things up, but after years of hearing and reading Ellis quotes, it seems entirely plausible to me that the reporter got it right.

Unless Rupert (and I respect his opinion more than most people's on here) was a witness, my guess is that Ellis indeed did say what was attributed to him and then blamed the reporter later.

I've never talkd to Ron about the issue and I didn't even know about it until I read it on here. But I knew it wasn't true because I talk to the guy practically every day and we used to talk about Declan's Moon all the time and he never mentioned the Strub Series. So when I heard the story on this board, I asked to see the article because I knew there was no way it was true. I read the article and nowhere in the article did Ellis mention the Strub Series or any of the races in the Strub Series. The only thing he said is, We're point the horse to the big races at Santa Anita." He was referring to the San Antonio, Santa Anita Handicap, etc.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

There are horses that show big improvement that are not juiced. He didn't improve this horse 10 lengths overnight. He didn't even run the horse for about 6 weeks after he claimed him. I have never heard anyone accuse Ellis of being a juice trainer.

The horse is easily worth $75,000 right now. They could run him for $62,500 and he would win and he would get claimed. So he is really worth quite a bit more than $75,000. He would be 3-5 if he ran for $62,500.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

I have heard people say that they think he underporms with some of the good young horses he gets. That is debatable but it is a fair argument.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I never said he was.

It wasn't you who called him incompetent. It was Indian Charlie.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It wasn't you who called him incompetent. It was Indian Charlie.

Actually, I called him incompetent. Not completely incompetent.

I do like about him that he seems to take care of his horses better than alot of other trainers.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, I called him incompetent. Not completely incompetent.

I do like about him that he seems to take care of his horses better than alot of other trainers.

you are calling a lot of ppl names latley, i did not realize your the new man around here.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Bid

There are a lot of guys who are good trainers who hit at 10-15%, and a lot of guys who are clowns that hit at 20+%.

The difference between the real good guys and the mediocre guys is vetting. How how much owners are willing to spend for vetting has a lot to do with how these horses run. There are only so many ways to bring a horse into a race, and some guys are better at doing that than others, however I do not think a win % is a fair gauge for rating a trainer.

You are right that vetting has alot to with it. Whether we like it or not, vetting is a huge part of the business.

When I talk about a competent trainer, I am not simply talking about his training abilities. There is much more to it than that. They have to know how to tie verything together including diet, the vet, running their horses in the righ spots, etc.

I will agree that there have been some guys out there who were totally clueless that got their hands on some type of juice and started winning at a really high clip. Some of those illegal, undetectable drugs are really strong and they can move horses way up.

But you can make a good educated guess as to who those guys are.

Take a guy like Doug O'Neil. I have no first hand knowledge that he cheats except for his bicarbonate positives, etc. I can tell you that nobody thinks the guys has any idea what he's doing. His barn is completely disorganized. He hardly even watches his horses train. He just sits in his office. He worked for lousy trainers, so it's not like he learned from anyone that could have taught him much. So obviously he is a guy that everyone wonders about.

Now a guy like Jeff Mullins is a different story. He may take an edge if he can get it. I don't think anyone would argue with that. But he also is an excellent trainer and an excellent horseman. If everyone was forced to use nothing but oats and water, I think Mullins would still win at close to a 20% clip. I would bet that O'Neil's win percenatge would drop to below 10% if he only used oats and water.

This is pure speculation on my part. I'm just giving you my best guess.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

you are calling a lot of ppl names latley, i did not realize your the new man around here.

I pretty much call them like I see them, so as far as being the new man around here, well, I went awhile without posting, so not much has changed.

Also, I don't ever remember calling you a twit, so besides Ellis, who have I called names?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, I called him incompetent. Not completely incompetent.

I do like about him that he seems to take care of his horses better than alot of other trainers.

Yes, he is very conscientious. He is probably in the top 5% when it comes to that. He is very quick to turn horses out to the farm if they develop a problem.

Some of these guys will just keep running them no matter what. They will run them until the horse is so lame that they have no choice but to turn them out. It's usually too late by then. At that point, permanent damage has been done and the horse will never come back the same.

[outofthebox]

Declan got an uncontested lead through soft fractions for the level and had no response whatsoever,, infact in the final furlong he really shut it down. I dont know the reason why they bring him back, does he not enjoy the time off at the farm. Maybe they can turn him into a lead pony like Kona Gold and Funny Cide. They absolutely love staying on the track and performing their barn duties.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Declan got an uncontested lead through soft fractions for the level and had no response whatsoever,, infact in the final furlong he really shut it down. I dont know the reason why they bring him back, does he not enjoy the time off at the farm. Maybe they can turn him into a lead pony like Kona Gold and Funny Cide. They absolutely love staying on the track and performing their barn duties.

he should be retired, that was the point of me starting this thread. why push ? if he was not a gelding he'd be done a long time ago, its unfair to the horse he does not want to run anymore, obviously

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he should be retired, that was the point of me starting this thread. why push ? if he was not a gelding he'd be done a long time ago, its unfair to the horse he does not want to run anymore, obviously

That will be his last race. They tried everything they could. He got the throat surgery. They gave him 6 months off. He came back and has run poorly 3 times in a row, so they are going to retire him.

[2Hot4TV]

Now what are they going to do with his work mate? Buzzards Bay?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Now what are they going to do with his work mate? Buzzards Bay?

Buzzard's Bay has been turned out. He will probably be retired but a definitive decision has not been made yet.

You were probably kidding about those two horses being workmates, but in case you weren't, those two horses have never worked together.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Buzzard's Bay has been turned out. He will probably be retired but a definitive decision has not been made yet.

You were probably kidding about those two horses being workmates, but in case you weren't, those two horses have never worked together.

I was kidding, but for some strange reason both of them seemed to stop trying around the same time. BB was on top of my list as a older hcp horse.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That will be his last race. They tried everything they could. He got the throat surgery. They gave him 6 months off. He came back and has run poorly 3 times in a row, so they are going to retire him.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...n-retired.aspx

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Ron Ellis has the highest win percenatge of any trainer at Hollywood Park this meet. He has 14 wins from 49 starters. That is a 29% win clip. For the year, he is at 20%. He has a ton of 2nd place finishes too. Over 40% of his starters this year have finished either 1st or 2nd.

That doesn't sound too incompetent to me.