Prado on Casino Drive

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Hard Spun vyed for the lead in that race - and it was a VERY mediocre field.

First Defense and E Z Warrior - the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd - they aren't even real good allowance horses in most years.

I tend to look at races for what they are - and don't get carried away with the names of them or what Grade they are.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun vyed for the lead in that race - and it was a VERY mediocre field.

First Defense and E Z Warrior - the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd - they aren't even real good allowance horses in most years.

I tend to look at races for what they are - and don't get carried away with the names of them or what Grade they are.

I thought EZ Warrior might be something but there was always an excuse. First Defence, although i believe is talented, is gutless.

How many races these days can you say are graded stakes then? Im not disagreeing with you, I think there are plenty of horses that have built false resumes on fake graded stake races. My only point is that besides the classics, hard spun really never raced anything where you could draw that conclusion. No?

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by booner

What happened to Take coming to Belmont?

Of course, the obvious answer would be Prado's familiarity with Belmont Park; I was just wondering if something else happened.

Not sure but Vodka is now probable for the Yasuda Kinen (on the 8th) which could have had something to do with it.....

That's just speculation though.

[Bobby Fischer]

Prado knows how to get a good trip when he has a good horse.

Is skilled with the whip, but slow and deliberate.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Gomez could have had a clear and uncontested lead through very moderate fraction - instead he opted to strangle the whole way, in a play to keep Curlin bottled up inside.

To me, it seems as though Gomez is a much better off-the-pace rider than he has a pace guy. He almost always takes back versus go to the front.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Belmont ride on Hard Spun was a comical Fucl< up.

Gomez could have had a clear and uncontested lead through very moderate fraction - instead he opted to strangle the whole way, in a play to keep Curlin bottled up inside.

I disagree that he was trying to lose the race - obviously. However, it was painfully obvious that he put the bullseye on odds-on favorite Curlin - and was race riding him .. keeping him inside of horses where he doesn't want to be..and getting first run when it's time to sprint home.

It was a great strategy at taking Curlin out of his comfort zone - but Hard Spun is basically an allowance horse when he can't make the lead - and a Grade 1 type stake horse when he can.

....too bad you didnt ride him.

[mrmikegap]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Prado and Casino Drive will be lucky to even see Brown down the stretch as Brown will be 15 lengths in front of him. Then down the stretch Prado will get hit in the face by dirt kicked up by Denis of Cork as Cork blows past him down the stretch. Casino Drive will be lucky to finish in the money.

Just prior to last years Breeders cup, I remember seeing a statistic lthat horses that ship in from overseas were like 1 for 59 winning their 2nd start in the U.S., if they won their first start. I don't remember where I read it, but it must have been on either bloodhorse.com or on Brisnet.com handicapping edge. Casino Drive fits this model.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by mrmikegap

Just prior to last years Breeders cup, I remember seeing a statistic lthat horses that ship in from overseas were like 1 for 59 winning their 2nd start in the U.S., if they won their first start. I don't remember where I read it, but it must have been on either bloodhorse.com or on Brisnet.com handicapping edge. Casino Drive fits this model.

....it does seem alot do regress, i wont be surpised if this horse runs huge.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Correct me if I am wrong...but didnt Hard Spun fail on the lead in The Derby going 1 1/4 ? How could he go 1 1/2 then on the lead. From what I remember they never rated him before The Belmont. Maybe..just maybe Jones knew his horse could not get the Belmont distance on the lead and wanted to try something different.

To suggest Gomez tried to lose on purpose is assinine.

Pace makes the race. He could have gone 1:13 and easily been on the lead in that Belmont. Off a relaxed 1:13 instead of a hard held 1:15 he would have had a much better chance of winning the race.

[CSC]

"I feel that he will do it," Dutrow said. "I feel that it's a foregone conclusion. I've seen the horses he's been with; I've seen our horse. I expect him to win this race."

One horse Dutrow appears to be less afraid of is Casino Drive. After the Preakness, Dutrow said that it's a cold exacta, Big Brown-Casino Drive. Wednesday, he advised bettors to use other horses underneath.

"This Japanese horse, he's got so much to prove," he said. "I don't know if he's on top of his game. I'm getting different reports from people. I would not depend on that horse to be second."

Love him or hate him, probably more with the latter...I like how Dutrow speaks his mind. Is Casino Drive the 'Super' wiseguy pick for the Belmont? Even if he wins which I doubt if Big Brown runs his race, he's still got to be considered a wiseguy's pick. You have the Prado angle, you have the Jazil/RTR angle, you have the Japanese angle....anyone got a few more angles to throw out?

[Quiet Chris]

Originally Posted by CSC

"I feel that he will do it," Dutrow said. "I feel that it's a foregone conclusion. I've seen the horses he's been with; I've seen our horse. I expect him to win this race."

One horse Dutrow appears to be less afraid of is Casino Drive. After the Preakness, Dutrow said that it's a cold exacta, Big Brown-Casino Drive. Wednesday, he advised bettors to use other horses underneath.

"This Japanese horse, he's got so much to prove," he said. "I don't know if he's on top of his game. I'm getting different reports from people. I would not depend on that horse to be second."

Love him or hate him, probably more with the latter...I like how Dutrow speaks his mind. Is Casino Drive the 'Super' wiseguy pick for the Belmont? Even if he wins which I doubt if Big Brown runs his race, he's still got to be considered a wiseguy's pick. You have the Prado angle, you have the Jazil/RTR angle, you have the Japanese angle....anyone got a few more angles to throw out?

A wiseguy pick? Do you know what that means?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Quiet Chris

A wiseguy pick? Do you know what that means?

Yes.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Belmont ride on Hard Spun was a comical Fucl< up.

Gomez could have had a clear and uncontested lead through very moderate fraction - instead he opted to strangle the whole way, in a play to keep Curlin bottled up inside.

I disagree that he was trying to lose the race - obviously. However, it was painfully obvious that he put the bullseye on odds-on favorite Curlin - and was race riding him .. keeping him inside of horses where he doesn't want to be..and getting first run when it's time to sprint home.

It was a great strategy at taking Curlin out of his comfort zone - but Hard Spun is basically an allowance horse when he can't make the lead - and a Grade 1 type stake horse when he can.

I reckon Hard Spun would have beaten Kip Deville's ass in the BC Mile if he had the chance.

No allowance horse in that one

[CSC]

On the subject of Kip Deville he had a bit quirky year last year. Off to a great start, I remember Dutrow rushing him back into a dirt race from a turf race when the horse went off form in the summer. I thought Dutrow may have ruined him but he recovered in time for the Woodbine Mile and then the BC Mile to cap off a great year. He may have been lucky with this one, he's a very nice horse who looks poised to have another big year.

[hockey2315]

Would've loved to see HS on the turf.

[jaripeo]

Love him or hate him, probably more with the latter...I like how Dutrow speaks his mind. Is Casino Drive the 'Super' wiseguy pick for the Belmont? Even if he wins which I doubt if Big Brown runs his race, he's still got to be considered a wiseguy's pick. You have the Prado angle, you have the Jazil/RTR angle, you have the Japanese angle....anyone got a few more angles to throw out?[/quote]

Peru angle: The jockeys from Peru (Bejarano, Garcia and Prado) their are just in a hot momentum. Alan García is in 3th place of wining races (20) in Belmont Parks. (Coa has 25), but in winning money he´s in top with US$ 1'286,865.
Prado knows very well the "Bel track" and his is a Giantkiller.
So BB is not safe.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by jaripeo

Love him or hate him, probably more with the latter...I like how Dutrow speaks his mind. Is Casino Drive the 'Super' wiseguy pick for the Belmont? Even if he wins which I doubt if Big Brown runs his race, he's still got to be considered a wiseguy's pick. You have the Prado angle, you have the Jazil/RTR angle, you have the Japanese angle....anyone got a few more angles to throw out?

Peru angle: The jockeys from Peru (Bejarano, Garcia and Prado) their are just in a hot momentum. Alan García is in 3th place of wining races (20) in Belmont Parks. (Coa has 25), but in winning money he´s in top with US$ 1'286,865.
Prado knows very well the "Bel track" and his is a Giantkiller.
So BB is not safe.
[/quote]

OTFL or LOTF

I never get these right.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

On the subject of Kip Deville he had a bit quirky year last year. Off to a great start, I remember Dutrow rushing him back into a dirt race from a turf race when the horse went off form in the summer. I thought Dutrow may have ruined him but he recovered in time for the Woodbine Mile and then the BC Mile to cap off a great year. He may have been lucky with this one, he's a very nice horse who looks poised to have another big year.

shame that a three race plan sounds like a 'big year'.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by jaripeo

Love him or hate him, probably more with the latter...I like how Dutrow speaks his mind. Is Casino Drive the 'Super' wiseguy pick for the Belmont? Even if he wins which I doubt if Big Brown runs his race, he's still got to be considered a wiseguy's pick. You have the Prado angle, you have the Jazil/RTR angle, you have the Japanese angle....anyone got a few more angles to throw out?

Peru angle: The jockeys from Peru (Bejarano, Garcia and Prado) their are just in a hot momentum. Alan García is in 3th place of wining races (20) in Belmont Parks. (Coa has 25), but in winning money he´s in top with US$ 1'286,865.
Prado knows very well the "Bel track" and his is a Giantkiller.
So BB is not safe.
[/quote]

My guess is that the only way BB will lose, will be to get caught late. I would think, based on his derby finish that the most likely horse to run him down would be DOC. Now, by no means am I saying DOC is the best horse, but neither was Sarava or Birdstone. If things get funny up front, and I think CD will be close up as well, the spoiler will be DOC. I wouldn't be shocked to see him closer to 7 or 8-1 than the 10-1 he currently sits at.

[The Bid]

Denis of Cork has a very good chance to win, and would be a very solid bet if he were in someone elses barn