Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #41  
Old 05-22-2008, 07:18 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
This can't be used against him. I mean, Grasshopper, for example, had a comparable trip. The horse 'wipes them out' with an accelerating last quarter and you're putting the perfect trip tag on him?

His performance last time was terrific. No doubt. And, I have no problem with the assertion that he might prove a very good horse. But, and I know you will agree with this, the rest of his resume leaves a lot to be desired. Personally, I am always suspect of horses that have one explosive performance, out of relative nowhere, after a few OK to mediocre ( and in Divine Park's case....poor ) performances. To me, they need to stay sound and replicate these races a few times before I am sold. We have simply seen too many flashes in the pan over the years to get all excited after one " great " performance. I hope Divine Park has more to come, and will be FAR from surprised if he wins Monday, but his resume leaves too much to be desired, overall, to right now suggest he is a better horse than Commentator, given what that one has done many times in his career. Sure, Divine Park has more upside. It's May of his 4YO year whereas Commentator is an oft injured 7YO. However, Divine Park has a lot of proving to do to show that he is a better horse.

Including First Defence is what really makes the whole discussion laughable and exposes that the opinion is nothing more than a biased argument against Commentator. Hey, who knows, he's a young 4YO as well, and trained by a great trainer, so anything is possible. But, based on what he has done, it is virtually impossible that he will ever have a resume even mildly comparable, in any way, to Commentator. Who knows, maybe he too will beat Commentator on Monday, but he will still be left with a great deal to do to even remotely compare favorably to the 7YO.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 05-22-2008, 07:21 PM
the_fat_man's Avatar
the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
His performance last time was terrific. No doubt. And, I have no problem with the assertion that he might prove a very good horse. But, and I know you will agree with this, the rest of his resume leaves a lot to be desired. Personally, I am always suspect of horses that have one explosive performance, out of relative nowhere, after a few OK to mediocre ( and in Divine Park's case....poor ) performances. To me, they need to stay sound and replicate these races a few times before I am sold. We have simply seen too many flashes in the pan over the years to get all excited after one " great " performance. I hope Divine Park has more to come, and will be FAR from surprised if he wins Monday, but his resume leaves too much to be desired, overall, to right now suggest he is a better horse than Commentator, given what that one has done many times in his career. Sure, Divine Park has more upside. It's May of his 4YO year whereas Commentator is an oft injured 7YO. However, Divine Park has a lot of proving to do to show that he is a better horse.

Including First Defence is what really makes the whole discussion laughable and exposes that the opinion is nothing more than a biased argument against Commentator. Hey, who knows, he's a young 4YO as well, and trained by a great trainer, so anything is possible. But, based on what he has done, it is virtually impossible that he will ever have a resume even mildly comparable, in any way, to Commentator. Who knows, maybe he too will beat Commentator on Monday, but he will still be left with a great deal to do to even remotely compare favorably to the 7YO.

No doubt about it: First Defence is a PUNK. Nothing else to say about him.

And, DP will have to go a long way to remove the clinkers in SA and LRL from my mind. Hard to reconcile his race at KEE, the one against C P West, and his last performance with the two poor performances.

With that said: if DP replicates his last race, he beats the old horse.
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 05-22-2008, 07:31 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man

With that said: if DP replicates his last race, he beats the old horse.

You get no major argument from me. Unless Commentator runs his A race he won't beat Divine Park's last race. Tough for any old timer to do.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 05-22-2008, 07:35 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
you know who i am .."slap" im andy surling biz-nitch!!!

j/k x100
LOL, silly Hooves. That's Jerry Brown's line!
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 05-22-2008, 09:58 PM
johnny pinwheel johnny pinwheel is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: saratoga ny
Posts: 986
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
No doubt about it: First Defence is a PUNK. Nothing else to say about him.



With that said: if DP replicates his last race, he beats the old horse.
i agree. a mile might be commentators undoing at this point in his career. the short field with no pace is his best hope though. divine park has gotten good and he has probably the best trainer around. i don't think his last race was a perfect set up. i think he pissed all over that field.
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 05-22-2008, 11:32 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

When Monterey Jazz was in this race I was about as excited to bet this race as I have been since Pyro was the huge favorite in the Blue Grass. Now that he is out and there won't be any pace at all I have no interest in wagering a penny or in even watching it live. I'll catch the replay later and find something else to do while the race is being run. Fun to turn what is usually one of the races I'm most excited in each year into a walkover.
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 05-22-2008, 11:34 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
i agree. a mile might be commentators undoing at this point in his career. the short field with no pace is his best hope though. divine park has gotten good and he has probably the best trainer around. i don't think his last race was a perfect set up. i think he pissed all over that field.
If they go 44 plus for the half and Commentator is on the lead it is over. He's undefeated when going 44+ in a sprint or 46+ in a route and on the lead and winless when that hasn't been the case.
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 05-22-2008, 11:48 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
When Monterey Jazz was in this race I was about as excited to bet this race as I have been since Pyro was the huge favorite in the Blue Grass. Now that he is out and there won't be any pace at all I have no interest in wagering a penny or in even watching it live. I'll catch the replay later and find something else to do while the race is being run. Fun to turn what is usually one of the races I'm most excited in each year into a walkover.
Then why aren't you betting out on Commentator?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 05-22-2008, 11:56 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Then why aren't you betting out on Commentator?
He'll be 2/5 against that field. When I thought there was going to be a Premium Wine/Lord Snowdon exacta it was an exciting proposition to make that much money. To bet on a 2/5 or an even money favorite does nothing for me. It was the whole prospect of both him and Monterey Jazz being vastly overbet and finishing off the board that intrigued me.
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 05-22-2008, 11:58 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
He'll be 2/5 against that field. When I thought there was going to be a Premium Wine/Lord Snowdon exacta it was an exciting proposition to make that much money. To bet on a 2/5 or an even money favorite does nothing for me. It was the whole prospect of both him and Monterey Jazz being vastly overbet and finishing off the board that intrigued me.

He might not be the favorite. But, either way, at least you won't be losing money on that absurd exacta you suggested. You might want to take a careful look at the pps for the 3rd at Belmont tomorrow to see both how bad a race the Carter was and how unreliable the fig is.

Lord Snowden? That's funny. Have you even heard of Divine Park?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #51  
Old 05-23-2008, 12:08 AM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He might not be the favorite. But, either way, at least you won't be losing money on that absurd exacta you suggested. You might want to take a careful look at the pps for the 3rd at Belmont tomorrow to see both how bad a race the Carter was and how unreliable the fig is.

Lord Snowden? That's funny. Have you even heard of Divine Park?
I was hoping for a balls to the wall style pace duel between the big two that would suck all the stalkers in and set up perfectly for those plodders. Of course I'd have played Divine Park with then. But the scenario of those two bums coming in one-two with both favorites off the board for a monster payout is what had me interested in the race. Now we are looking at a small field where Commentator, at short odds, looks unbeatable which is just no fun for me to bet.
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 05-23-2008, 12:10 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I was hoping for a balls to the wall style pace duel between the big two that would suck all the stalkers in and set up perfectly for those plodders. Of course I'd have played Divine Park with then. But the scenario of those two bums coming in one-two with both favorites off the board for a monster payout is what had me interested in the race. Now we are looking at a small field where Commentator, at short odds, looks unbeatable which is just no fun for me to bet.

You so desperately want Commentator to lose that you are completely ignoring that he may well not be the favorite so that should he lose it will be even easier to dump on him.

It may be late, but I'm not falling for that routine.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 05-23-2008, 12:18 AM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You so desperately want Commentator to lose that you are completely ignoring that he may well not be the favorite so that should he lose it will be even easier to dump on him.

It may be late, but I'm not falling for that routine.
Actually I like Commentator but knowing his tendencies makes him as good a favorite to bet against in the sport with the right horses entered against him. Let's face it, we all make less when the favorite finishes in the trifecta since 92% of tickets include the favorite. So I like to find the races that the favorite is susceptible to finishing off the board so that the 25% of the time when that happens I can capitalize on being part of the 8% of tickets that have that happening. If nothing else, I've at least learned that much from Crist.
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 05-26-2008, 04:55 PM
the_fat_man's Avatar
the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
No doubt about it: First Defence is a PUNK. Nothing else to say about him.
Oh Yeah

And Durkin's call made it all the sweeter: "And here comes First Defence, confidently ridden".
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 05-26-2008, 05:14 PM
pgardn
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Oh Yeah

And Durkin's call made it all the sweeter: "And here comes First Defence, confidently ridden".
Good call.

You also hit 10 on
the humility scale.

How much ya make?
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 05-26-2008, 05:19 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Oh Yeah

And Durkin's call made it all the sweeter: "And here comes First Defence, confidently ridden".
You must have cleaned up, getting a 7/1 shot out of the money like that. McLaughlin should send Frankel some champagne, as First Defence did all the dirty work.
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 05-26-2008, 05:25 PM
the_fat_man's Avatar
the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
You must have cleaned up, getting a 7/1 shot out of the money like that. McLaughlin should send Frankel some champagne, as First Defence did all the dirty work.
Are you one of his supporters?

And, why is hooking a horse ENTERING the STRETCH, doing the dirty work?
Reply With Quote
  #58  
Old 05-26-2008, 05:29 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Are you one of his supporters?

And, why is hooking a horse ENTERING the STRETCH, doing the dirty work?
Who forced Commentator into the :44 and change half? Kiss the Kid?
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 05-26-2008, 05:41 PM
the_fat_man's Avatar
the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Who forced Commentator into the :44 and change half? Kiss the Kid?
Either Johnny V or Commentator himself.
Reply With Quote
  #60  
Old 05-26-2008, 06:05 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
You must have cleaned up, getting a 7/1 shot out of the money like that. McLaughlin should send Frankel some champagne, as First Defence did all the dirty work.

At least we learned that you were right that First Defence is a better horse than Commentator.

Commentator was terrific today. The rest? Divine Park was OK.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.