Circular Quay

[blackthroatedwind]

I just did a cursory glance at the times run at Churchill today in 6F races...

Let's start by saying Circular Quay ran 6F in 1:09.96

In the 5th race a Dale Romans 2YO firster ran 1:10.07

in the 6th race a 4YO 15K claimer, who's previous Beyer figure was 58 and had run in the low 70s early in his career ran 1:10.26

The filly 2YO stake was run in 1:10.50 and the winner, Richwomen, had a troubled trip and had previously run a Beyer of 82.

Circular Quay had a ground saving trip and beat a second time starter who had run a 65 in his debut. Yes, I understand 2YOs can, and do, improve rapidly early in their careers, but in looking at this hard data I have NO idea what people are getting so excited about.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I for one would like to see some of these explosive Pletcher horses actually stick around for a full campaign. That is something we have seen very little of especially as it compares to the number of explosive one time performances ( and sometimes two times ) we see from that barn. There have been literally dozens of impressive maiden winners that have either disappeared or fizzled out badly. Already this year we've seen Octave ( I believe she was declared a future Grade 1 winner on this very board ) finish a horrendous second in just her second start. I am surprised to see someone as knowledgable as Oracle declare that Circle Quay, after just his second start against a highly suspect field, is " great ". Perhaps I totally misunderstood ( wouldn't be the first time ).

" Great " seems to get thrown around just a little too easily in this game these days. Last year at this time we were reading about future TC winner Half Ours. He, shockingly, never ran again. Let's just hold our horses ( I couldn't resist ) before annointing champions in July....especially from a barn that seems to have trouble developing the vast talent it holds.

Maybe its in another thread, in this one I see nothing about this horse being great or annointed as champion. I see comments like "very impressive", "awesome", "crazy good", favorite for BCJ, etc. These seem like appropriate comments given the nature of his wins. Why is it that we have to "hold our horses" anyway. As of this first week in July he is the most exciting two year old that we have to discuss. Most likely the focus will change as we move forward but for now I see no problem singing the praises of this one.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just did a cursory glance at the times run at Churchill today in 6F races...

Let's start by saying Circular Quay ran 6F in 1:09.96

In the 5th race a Dale Romans 2YO firster ran 1:10.07

in the 6th race a 4YO 15K claimer, who's previous Beyer figure was 58 and had run in the low 70s early in his career ran 1:10.26

The filly 2YO stake was run in 1:10.50 and the winner, Richwomen, had a troubled trip and had previously run a Beyer of 82.

Circular Quay had a ground saving trip and beat a second time starter who had run a 65 in his debut. Yes, I understand 2YOs can, and do, improve rapidly early in their careers, but in looking at this hard data I have NO idea what people are getting so excited about.

For me, it was the way he did it. I couldn't find this horse with International GPS at the 1/8th pole, then all of a sudden he burst up the rail and got there. I don't remember the last 2-year-old I saw close like that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah I know. But I'm talking about now greats, not future greats. The horse is great now, and thats what really matters. I'll leave it to morons who obsess about one or two horses all year and do nothing but talk about them to obsess on the future. I'm enjoying watching him run.

I was referencing this post. No offense intended Oracle.

Why do I post my thoughts you ask. Well, because I think there is way too much misinformation wirtten about horses in this game these days. I think people are led astray by overzealousness. Personally, I prefer to see something special before getting excited about a horse. Plus, considering the veritable plethora of " awesome " one time performances eminating from the Pletcher barn ( especially with 2YOs ) I think it is wise to withhold judgement before declaring every next best thing that appears a superstar.

Let's hold the accolades for those that have actually earned them.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For me, it was the way he did it. I couldn't find this horse with International GPS at the 1/8th pole, then all of a sudden he burst up the rail and got there. I don't remember the last 2-year-old I saw close like that.

I would say Play with Fire and Scipion are two Saratoga maiden breakers from the last couple years that come to mind.

I understand that 2YO winners that close show an added dimension that often signifies above average ability but I just don't know what is so special about this horse's performance. And, yes, I do think it can be hard to rally inside horses. However, this horse had a clear path, never had to alter course, and while I am not saying he didn't run OK, I don't see what was even close to spectacular ( or even particularly special ) about today's win.

Quay was impressive today but I think the most impressive performance of the race was the 1 horse Chace City. Not saying that Chace is better than Quay, but watch the replay of the race and keep your eye on the 1. He broke to the left, jumped a rail, ran all over the place and still ran ok.

Now to Quay, he looked very good today. I like to see a horse move up the rail so easily like he did. But keep in mind, the horses were moving pretty slow the last furlong. The horse I think is going to be one of those who looks good against 2 year olds but once everyone matures and catches up to him then he will be left behind. I do want to see the horse go longer, but I think he will be a very very good two year but a so so 3 year old.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I was referencing this post. No offense intended Oracle.

Why do I post my thoughts you ask. Well, because I think there is way too much misinformation wirtten about horses in this game these days. I think people are led astray by overzealousness. Personally, I prefer to see something special before getting excited about a horse. Plus, considering the veritable plethora of " awesome " one time performances eminating from the Pletcher barn ( especially with 2YOs ) I think it is wise to withhold judgement before declaring every next best thing that appears a superstar.

Let's hold the accolades for those that have actually earned them.

I guess I understand Oracles distinction, now great vs. future great. People are excited because of his race today, not because he is considered one of the all-time greats.

Again, he was an impressive winner of the Bashford Manor. No one said superstar. So you were just ho hum about the way he dove to the rail and passed 5 horses in the last furlong like they were standing still?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Again, he was an impressive winner of the Bashford Manor. No one said superstar. So you were just ho hum about the way he dove to the rail and passed 5 horses in the last furlong like they were standing still?

No, I was not wildly impressed by a second time starter that ran .11 seconds faster than a 2YO filly firster ( one that you labelled " not spectacular but solid " ).

I also wasn't wildly impressed that he ran .3 seconds faster than a $15K claimer that ran an average of a 44.67 Beyer figure in his previous three outings.

I wasn't impressed that he ran .56 seconds faster than a 2YO filly who endured a tough trip to win HER start a couple races earlier.

By the way, he did not dive to the rail, as he spent the entire race in the two path ( thus never losing any valuable ground ).

I do not believe that in judging Circular Quay's performace against other 6F races run Saturday at Churchill points him out as anything special whatsoever. I believe in looking at the whole picture.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, I was not wildly impressed by a second time starter that ran .11 seconds faster than a 2YO filly firster ( one that you labelled " not spectacular but solid " ).

I also wasn't wildly impressed that he ran .3 seconds faster than a $15K claimer that ran an average of a 44.67 Beyer figure in his previous three outings.

I wasn't impressed that he ran .56 seconds faster than a 2YO filly who endured a tough trip to win HER start a couple races earlier.

By the way, he did not dive to the rail, as he spent the entire race in the two path ( thus never losing any valuable ground ).

I do not believe that in judging Circular Quay's performace against other 6F races run Saturday at Churchill points him out as anything special whatsoever. I believe in looking at the whole picture.

I didn't see the race, but from what I understand CQ had to steady and find room before getting past the other horses. So, if we're looking at the whole picture, we should consider that when comparing times. Also, CQ is not bred to be a sprinter, he's expected to improve when he stretches out. That makes a win like this more impressive IMO, this horse just knows how to win and has the talent do it. --now, hopefully he stays around long enough to prove it! (BTW, I was thinking about Value Plus as another horse that could be listed among those with a spectacular start that fizzled out)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I didn't see the race, but from what I understand CQ had to steady and find room before getting past the other horses. So, if we're looking at the whole picture, we should consider that when comparing times. Also, CQ is not bred to be a sprinter, he's expected to improve when he stretches out. That makes a win like this more impressive IMO, this horse just knows how to win and has the talent do it. --now, hopefully he stays around long enough to prove it! (BTW, I was thinking about Value Plus as another horse that could be listed among those with a spectacular start that fizzled out)

I think you should watch the race before commenting on his trip. He NEVER steadied ( I just watched it again to make sure ).

What's interesting is that he did not go inside because he had nowhere else to go. He went inside because he insisted on it. Bejarano was whipping him lefty the entire stretch to get him to angle out and the horse wanted to go inside. Reminds me of a Billy Turner maiden winner at Belmont on July 1st who refused to pass outside the leader in the stretch and only got rolling, to win, when he was guided to the rail. So, to me, it was only in getting inside that he was completely comfortable.

As far as his future success based on his breeding....I'll believe that when I see it. Perhaps you are right but considering the pps of 2YOs from this barn I highly doubt we'll even get a chance to find out.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you should watch the race before commenting on his trip. He NEVER steadied ( I just watched it again to make sure ).

What's interesting is that he did not go inside because he had nowhere else to go. He went inside because he insisted on it. Bejarano was whipping him lefty the entire stretch to get him to angle out and the horse wanted to go inside. Reminds me of a Billy Turner maiden winner at Belmont on July 1st who refused to pass outside the leader in the stretch and only got rolling, to win, when he was guided to the rail. So, to me, it was only in getting inside that he was completely comfortable.

As far as his future success based on his breeding....I'll believe that when I see it. Perhaps you are right but considering the pps of 2YOs from this barn I highly doubt we'll even get a chance to find out.

Well, I did admit I had not watched the race, but the equibase charts comments say "steady 3/8s, driving" based on that and the comments of others... and this quote from a bloodhorse.com article:

"Circular Quay, seventh in the early going, started to work his way through the field but was forced to steady in traffic on the far turn and swung to the outside for clear running. Teuflesberg still led at midstretch as Run Alex Run and Shermanesque rallied strongly to his outside and Pegasus Wind began to tire. Circular Quay, still fifth with a furlong to run, veered toward the inside for his late charge. Blanc urged Shermanesque to a narrow advantage over Run Alex Run in the final eighth, but Bejarano guided Circular Quay through along the rail and got clear for the victory.

"He tried to go to the rail, and he was scared a little bit with the other horses," said Bejarano. "So I tried to put him in the best position. The last eighth, I tried to put him to the rail and in five jumps he was in the lead."


Also, sounds like it was the jock's idea, not the horse, to go to the rail... I really like it when a horse is willing to skim the rail, shows a lot of courage. and determination.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

I have to think the key to assessing his overall quality is the fact that the dam is a G1 winner and he hass a brother who is 2 for 3 earning 70k+. That means his brother wasn't winning at slouch tracks either. I also heard she has a nice yearling. Sounds like they have found a great broodmare. I am not saying this colt can win the Derby or anything, but he is from a very young and quality mare.

[blackthroatedwind]

If you believe charts and don't watch races for yourself it is impossible to judge them accurately. He may have had to hesitate some going towards the turn but I would hardly call it a steady. Plus, you claimed he had to steady to find room before getting past the other horses, and that is simply not true.

As far as Bejarano's comments, I suggest you watch the race carefully, as they don't seem wholly reliable. He wanted to get the horse outside ( understandable ) and as he said the horse wanted to go inside and basically he was left with no choice.

Please....just watch the race.

[Seattleallstar]

this thread is BS, it has turned into one of those threads again.

Gee wheres my ****ing name mentioned with this horse along with numerous others who thought this horse was something.

[blackthroatedwind]

What's wrong with a critical analysis of the race both visually and relative to the other races run at Churchill Downs on Saturday?

Perhaps more " God wasn't he great " posts would have kept this thread more in line.

I'm just trying to give my analysis of the race today. Sorry if it differs from others. I, for one, just don't buy the hype and see no concrete evidence that I should.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you believe charts and don't watch races for yourself it is impossible to judge them accurately. He may have had to hesitate some going towards the turn but I would hardly call it a steady. Plus, you claimed he had to steady to find room before getting past the other horses, and that is simply not true.

As far as Bejarano's comments, I suggest you watch the race carefully, as they don't seem wholly reliable. He wanted to get the horse outside ( understandable ) and as he said the horse wanted to go inside and basically he was left with no choice.

Please....just watch the race.

Just watched it. I see where he "steadied," and I agree, not much there... it was more of a hesitation as you described it. CQ certainly seemed comfortable coming up the rail. Let's not nick-pick words, but I wasn't making "claims" and didn't say 'steady TO find room', I said "steady and find room." HOWEVER, based on what I saw, CQ wasn't lacking room to get through, he just had to take the rail route to get there. More than anything, CQ showed he's fine dealing with traffic and getting dirt in his face.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, I was not wildly impressed by a second time starter that ran .11 seconds faster than a 2YO filly firster ( one that you labelled " not spectacular but solid " ).

I also wasn't wildly impressed that he ran .3 seconds faster than a $15K claimer that ran an average of a 44.67 Beyer figure in his previous three outings.

I wasn't impressed that he ran .56 seconds faster than a 2YO filly who endured a tough trip to win HER start a couple races earlier.

By the way, he did not dive to the rail, as he spent the entire race in the two path ( thus never losing any valuable ground ).

I do not believe that in judging Circular Quay's performace against other 6F races run Saturday at Churchill points him out as anything special whatsoever. I believe in looking at the whole picture.

CQ was not in the 2 path the whole race. His post position was eight and he ran for about 1.5 furlongs on the outside. He was moved to the inside and also moved around a slowing horse on the turn. He showed me a good deal of athleticism, many horses do not maintain their speed when moving left and right. Also he was fully within himself at the wire and looked to have plenty of run left in him. He looked like a horse that will have no problem stretching out.
I am not impressed with an analysis that is just comprised of recounting the final times of the other races on the card. My comments were based entirely on a visual review of the races, I had not even looked at the final times.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Just watched it. I see where he "steadied," and I agree, not much there... it was more of a hesitation as you described it. CQ certainly seemed comfortable coming up the rail. Let's not nick-pick words, but I wasn't making "claims" and didn't say 'steady TO find room', I said "steady and find room." HOWEVER, based on what I saw, CQ wasn't lacking room to get through, he just had to take the rail route to get there. More than anything, CQ showed he's fine dealing with traffic and getting dirt in his face.

Thanks for watching. I wasn't trying to give you a hard time, and appreciate your efforts, but merely trying to get you to look at it yourself.

He was definitely professional for a second time starter and showed more versatility than you normally see from young horses. I never said he wasn't a talented horse. I just don't agree with people that he so impressive that we should be declaring him the BC Juvie favorite when 95% of the contendors for that race haven't even raced yet.

The good 2YO racing will begin in earnest in a few weeks. Should be fun.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

CQ was not in the 2 path the whole race. His post position was eight and he ran for about 1.5 furlongs on the outside. He was moved to the inside and also moved around a slowing horse on the turn. He showed me a good deal of athleticism, many horses do not maintain their speed when moving left and right. Also he was fully within himself at the wire and looked to have plenty of run left in him. He looked like a horse that will have no problem stretching out.
I am not impressed with an analysis that is just comprised of recounting the final times of the other races on the card. My comments were based entirely on a visual review of the races, I had not even looked at the final times.

I don't agree that he had " plenty of run left in him " but we can certainly agree to disagree. I feel highly confident he ran as fast as he could have TODAY.

I am not asking you to be " impressed ", but I offer those comparisons as the fairest way to gauge his effort against the other races today. I have no problem with you judging him visually, and respect that, but it is certainly not the only way a horse should be judged. Relative time is important...at least to me.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Thanks for watching. I wasn't trying to give you a hard time, and appreciate your efforts, but merely trying to get you to look at it yourself.

He was definitely professional for a second time starter and showed more versatility than you normally see from young horses. I never said he wasn't a talented horse. I just don't agree with people that he so impressive that we should be declaring him the BC Juvie favorite when 95% of the contendors for that race haven't even raced yet.

The good 2YO racing will begin in earnest in a few weeks. Should be fun.

Cool. Absolutely looking forward to more baby races.
After watching the replay again, I'm impressed with how Chace City recovered and finished the race. He ran remarkably well to at least put himself back in the field after that start.