Travers Stakes (gr. I)

[Mike]

I'll tri key Street Sense over CP West and Grasshopper

I think Street Sense is such bad odds, and I think a previous poster might have nailed it, with a smaller field, and pace, , he might not run according to form. He has the class, no doubt to win from anywhere, but he does have a habit of winning or losing by just enough. He hung and gawked against Curlin, and was all out to beat Any Given Saturday. He had to run down Hard Spun with a perfect trip. Might be a time to take a shot...esp if he does go off at 1 to 9. why not....Graveyard of favorites..... don't spend a lot, but maybe get a lot back. Grasshopper I hear alot about, but like a previous poster said, might be the wiseguy horse.... Maybe bet on the 20-1 shot? For You Reppo? Haskin kinda mentioned the horse sheepishly last night on Steve's show, as maybe a horse that was interesting.....

[Bobby Fischer]

For You Reppo is interesting. His pedigree says no, but he has a foundation of 9f races, and a good trainer. Gomez can ride... why not


No one should beat Street Sense here, unless Street Sense tires unexpectedly.

Grasshoper has the most unknown potential, but I think Sightseeing has solid form.

If Sightseeing could magically combine the best aspects of his last two races -
The Dwyer where he makes excellent headway on the backstretch before getting sandwiched, and The Dandy where he shows late interest -
Sightseeing could at least make Street Sense work. Then sightseeing could magically combine some pick-6 tickets for me.

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I actually completely disagree with this. I see no value in betting Street Sense in that he is sure to be an underlay. He should have won the Jim Dandy with plenty in reserve almost without asking. However I counted 13 cracks of the whip and a lot of action from Calvin to get by CP West who didn't ever go away. I have this theory that this is not his preferred set-up for a peak performance and by that I mean he does well with a solid pace and perhaps bigger fields, with a smallish field and moderate pace he doesn't have the explosiveness. That and the oddities about each and every one of his trips make me just a bit sceptical.

The big thing in his favor is that this race didn't attract any monsters or real up and comers, so it should be his for the taking. I'm looking hard at this Grasshopper, need to check out his tg# from the last race.

I still keep leaning on Street Sense being a Churchill Downs lover / horse for course. In his last 6 races he has had 2 blow out wins at CD and in the 4 races at other tracks (you can even go back to races before his Juvenile victory at Kee / AP) he has been in "dogfights" and he even lost 2 of those 4 "dogfights" to horses he toyed with at CD (much of this can also be made of the pace scenario noted above). He may win, but if I am going to take between 1 to 5 and 1-2 I want a horse that is clearly 5 lenghts better than the remainder of the field. At CD I would agree. I am not as inclined at any other track. I would lean towards Grasshopper or Sightseeing if SS goes off too low.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

I still keep leaning on Street Sense being a Churchill Downs lover / horse for course. In his last 6 races he has had 2 blow out wins at CD and in the 4 races at other tracks (you can even go back to races before his Juvenile victory at Kee / AP) he has been in "dogfights" and he even lost 2 of those 4 "dogfights" to horses he toyed with at CD (much of this can also be made of the pace scenario noted above). He may win, but if I am going to take between 1 to 5 and 1-2 I want a horse that is clearly 5 lenghts better than the remainder of the field. At CD I would agree. I am not as inclined at any other track. I would lean towards Grasshopper or Sightseeing if SS goes off too low.

you may be right about the churchill angle, although i think there is a little more to it. i'm working up some detailed thoughts on how i see this race breaking down and will post it later. bottom line is i agree with you that if Street sense wins this this race it will be another hard fought one length win.

[golfer]

Initial thoughts, this appears to be a COLD Street Sense over Sightseeing exacta, with a possible reverse. Grasshopper, off the 4pt TG top, seems to be a bounce candidate, and I don't like the pattern on CP West.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by golfer

Initial thoughts, this appears to be a COLD Street Sense over Sightseeing exacta, with a possible reverse. Grasshopper, off the 4pt TG top, seems to be a bounce candidate, and I don't like the pattern on CP West.

Totally agree and hope for an $8 exacta

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

I still keep leaning on Street Sense being a Churchill Downs lover / horse for course. In his last 6 races he has had 2 blow out wins at CD and in the 4 races at other tracks (you can even go back to races before his Juvenile victory at Kee / AP) he has been in "dogfights" and he even lost 2 of those 4 "dogfights" to horses he toyed with at CD (much of this can also be made of the pace scenario noted above). He may win, but if I am going to take between 1 to 5 and 1-2 I want a horse that is clearly 5 lenghts better than the remainder of the field. At CD I would agree. I am not as inclined at any other track. I would lean towards Grasshopper or Sightseeing if SS goes off too low.

I disagree with people who say he is just a CD lover, because of how he ran at Pimlico. He didn't win that day, but it was arguably the best race he has run yet. I sound like a HUGE Street Sense fan in this thread, and I'm really not, but against this particular field I would be absolutely SHOCKED if he doesn't win.

If Street Sense goes off at 3/5 my bet is definitely in.
Its just a matter if I want to drive all the way to the track to bet and then it falls to 1/5.

I think Ajim has an interesting way of viewing this horse but I also agree 10f is just too long to beat this horse with these even on a bad day. 70 to 80% chance Street Sense wins.

[MOONMON]

Remember Upset?!?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

If Street Sense goes off at 3/5 my bet is definitely in.
Its just a matter if I want to drive all the way to the track to bet and then it falls to 1/5.

I think Ajim has an interesting way of viewing this horse but I also agree 10f is just too long to beat this horse with these even on a bad day. 70 to 80% chance Street Sense wins.

when he owns the rail on the second turn and has a solid pace to run into, he is real tough, (Juvenile, derby, preakness) i don't think he gets either today.

when he is denied the rail, or the pace is moderate to slow, or both, he ends up in a fight that he can still win but not a sure thing at low odds. (Tampa Bay, Bluegrass, Jim Dandy)


of course Street Sense will be no surprise today no matter how they run it, but I'm picking Grasshopper despite adding 9 pounds, another furlong, and a big class hike.

[Bobby Fischer]

Sight Seeing will need a slow pace and to be on even-terms with Street Sense to have a shot. He was content to track in the Dandy.

Cornelio will probably ride CP pretty honest and I don't expect him to race-ride Street Sense. Albarado has to take a shot with Grasshopper, the pace and the rail should open up late if not early.

Gomez on For You Reppo is about the biggest threat to race-ride and box-in Street Sense, but if the pace opens up so will the room.

[letswastemoney]

Sightseeing stunk

[Danzig]

but grasshopper looked good. one to keep an eye on when the top horses all retire in a few months.

congrats to street sense, looked a bit like a battle, but the champ prevails. first 2 yo champ/derby/travers winner in YEARS and years.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

you may be right about the churchill angle, although i think there is a little more to it. i'm working up some detailed thoughts on how i see this race breaking down and will post it later. bottom line is i agree with you that if Street sense wins this this race it will be another hard fought one length win.

You nailed it along with stating Grasshopper is one to watch.

I bow.

[Danzig]

nicely done jim!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but grasshopper looked good. one to keep an eye on when the top horses all retire in a few months.

congrats to street sense, looked a bit like a battle, but the champ prevails. first 2 yo champ/derby/travers winner in YEARS and years.

he will be a huge underlay next time. he rode the softest ground saving trip off all time to still get beat in a mediocre time. I would be betting against all these next out other then street sense.

[ArlJim78]

wow did Grasshopper give me a thrill there. after six furlongs I was thinking he might be able to hold off Street Sense. Borel used different tactics today and it paid off. Hats off to Street Sense but no shame in Grasshoppers performance. Unreal that today was only his sixth race, first stakes race, only second time routing, and he nearly takes down a dual classic winner at 10 furlongs.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

wow did Grasshopper give me a thrill there. after six furlongs I was thinking he might be able to hold off Street Sense. Borel used different tactics today and it paid off. Hats off to Street Sense but no shame in Grasshoppers performance. Unreal that today was only his sixth race, first stakes race, only second time routing, and he nearly takes down a dual classic winner at 10 furlongs.

Jim, My question for you now is, did Street Sense answer your questions about him yesterday? And I don't mean that in a smart-ass way, I am actually curious. On the one hand:
1) He had no pace to run at considering Grasshopper got clear and got the half in :48.12.
2) He didn't get his preferred rail trip at all, and was pretty wide around the first turn.
3) He was certainly out of his element being that close to the pace with so few horses in front of him.
In spite of these problems he still prevailed over what seems like a pretty good horse in Grasshopper, and beat his two Jim Dandy rivals by over 16 lengths this time.
But on the other hand, your pre-race point that he lacked the same explosion under these conditions seems to be somewhat validated by the relatively slow time for the final quarter and the fact that he didn't blow by Grasshopper.
Just curious as to how your (or anyone's) take on the horse has changed after this race...if at all.

[Danzig]

maybe no 'explosion' since he was trying to close into a race with not much pace. closers won't look as amazing when the leaders still have plenty of gas left. of course, yesterday he wasn't much of a closer, more of a stalker laying that close to the lead. but it's a good thing he did.

i'm not ready to award him the bcc yet. altho there aren't any real superstars in the older division, he will still face a more formidable challenge from some of them that he hasn't gotten from his own peers.

but i do think he's sealed the deal on top 3 yo.