Hard Spun's Condition.......Fit Or Fatigued

[The Bid]

Jim,

I think you pretty much have Hardspun Pegged. Not a win contender, the breakdown you made is logical, and an off the board is in sight. Couldnt agree more.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Carl was probably happy with the work since he trains Street Sense! I just think that a jockey that does not ride in these types of races on a regular basis is more likely to screw up than one who does regardless of how many races they have won. It is a very tricky race to ride in because it is unlike any other. This year is really hard to figure because the pace picture is still unsettled.

Keep in mind a guy who has had live mounts several times hasn't even gotten a sniff, in fact I don't think he's even hit the board. (Johnny V)

I don't think Pino will "screw up", if the horse is good enough he will win, if he isn't he won't.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Hard Spun was a bit of a puzzle for me, but at the end of the day I decided that I don't think he is a win candidate, and not all that likely to hit the board even.
three things that bother me;
1) hasn't faced top competition, in fact avoided it.

2) the only time he faced some adversity, and had to be asked for everything and dig deep down, there was not much there. yes he was on the wrong part of the track but these were not top class horses, and for a moment he worked himself into competition but then could hold his position against forty Grams, and Officer Rocket. how much fight will he have when challenged in the Derby against much tougher horses? He doesn't look like a horse that you can fool with during the race. He doesn't like to be held, and he doesn't really have a kick either if pushed. He runs his best like in the Lanes End just letting him run. In the derby I like horses that have proven themselves in battle more, that are not so one dimensional, that can be rated a little if need be, and that have something in reserve when called upon.

3) The Lanes End looked to be a fantastic race. The only thing that bothers me is that this was a career best race for Hard Spun, Sedgefield, and Joe Got Even. Why did they all move up at the same time on that day? Why did Sedgefield finish within 3 lengths of Hard Spun that day? For Sedgefield it was a huge jump, like 5 TG points, 11 point jump on Bris. In his next race he fell back to earth big time. Something is odd there and if I don't believe that the Lanes End result was truly legit, then I can't play Hard Spun because the rest of his record doesn't do it for me.

Thats my take, boy will I look dumb if he runs like so many seem to think!

Okay, I buy some of your arguments, but judging Hard Spun's performance in the Lanes End based on what Sedgefield did in a TURF race the next time out in which he was running on 12 days rest and hung like a cheap suit is stretching it. How about the fact that Dominican ran in the race prior, and blitzed that field, yet still ran 3-4 lengths slower than Hard Spun did?

I have to believe the Lanes End was legit. He was the only Derby contender to run a :23 1st quarter and a sub :38 final 3. Plenty of these horses can do one or the other, but not both.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

Okay, I buy some of your arguments, but judging Hard Spun's performance in the Lanes End based on what Sedgefield did in a TURF race the next time out in which he was running on 12 days rest and hung like a cheap suit is stretching it. How about the fact that Dominican ran in the race prior, and blitzed that field, yet still ran 3-4 lengths slower than Hard Spun did?

I have to believe the Lanes End was legit. He was the only Derby contender to run a :23 1st quarter and a sub :38 final 3. Plenty of these horses can do one or the other, but not both.

I'm not so much basing my opinion on what Sedgefield did after the lanes end, although that wasn't encouraging because he had been previously much better on turf. And if I just look at the Lanes End then HS looks great, but there is still the other stuff that bothers me.

My main point with Sedgefield is that his figures jumped up so much in the Lanes End from his prior races. I am suspicious when a race brings back higher figures for everyone.

Dominican did not run the race that day that Hard Spun did, thats for sure. To his credit though it was his first start of the year after the equipment change and being off 4 months. When he came back in the BG he showed that he can kick home better than several of the top horses including Street Sense, although the way the race was run obscured any hope of finding out how fast he could have run, and the fact that it was on poly obscures what his dirt form might be like. Also the way I saw him gracefully veering out to avoid trouble without losing any momentum makes me think he has the agility to overcome obstacles in the derby.

I think Dominican might be sitting on a huge effort, and the price will be nice because of the obscured form that I mentioned, which is why I was touting him to be at least on the board. With Dominicans bad draw however i've lowered my expectations for him a bit.

Larry Jones took Hard Spun out to graze on Tuesday and Hard Spun was very lively. He refused to graze in a calm manner. Larry Jones was quoted saying "maybe we should have worked him more yesterday!"

I think this horse has tons of speed built up that he is ready to get out. He is my top pick.

I don't think that you can take into account what a jockey and trainer say a week before the biggest race of your life. I mean wouldn't you want your secret weapons kept under your belt until the big dance?

Originally Posted by AndieNicW

Larry Jones took Hard Spun out to graze on Tuesday and Hard Spun was very lively. He refused to graze in a calm manner. Larry Jones was quoted saying "maybe we should have worked him more yesterday!"

I think this horse has tons of speed built up that he is ready to get out. He is my top pick.

I don't think that you can take into account what a jockey and trainer say a week before the biggest race of your life. I mean wouldn't you want your secret weapons kept under your belt until the big dance?

Well you've sold me. I'm putting $25,000 across on him.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not so much basing my opinion on what Sedgefield did after the lanes end, although that wasn't encouraging because he had been previously much better on turf. And if I just look at the Lanes End then HS looks great, but there is still the other stuff that bothers me.

My main point with Sedgefield is that his figures jumped up so much in the Lanes End from his prior races. I am suspicious when a race brings back higher figures for everyone.

Dominican did not run the race that day that Hard Spun did, thats for sure. To his credit though it was his first start of the year after the equipment change and being off 4 months. When he came back in the BG he showed that he can kick home better than several of the top horses including Street Sense, although the way the race was run obscured any hope of finding out how fast he could have run, and the fact that it was on poly obscures what his dirt form might be like. Also the way I saw him gracefully veering out to avoid trouble without losing any momentum makes me think he has the agility to overcome obstacles in the derby.

I think Dominican might be sitting on a huge effort, and the price will be nice because of the obscured form that I mentioned, which is why I was touting him to be at least on the board. With Dominicans bad draw however i've lowered my expectations for him a bit.

I also think Dominican may be sitting on a big effort, the bad draw is obviously a concern but his style isn't as much a deterrent from out there. I like his chances to hit the board at a square price.

The "ultimate equipment change" is something more trainers/owners need to consider. It has turned this guy from a talented but unmanageable colt (see the KYJC) to a "graceful" (a very good description) runner. Unfortunately for the game, the goolies are the value in today's society...

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Well you've sold me. I'm putting $25,000 across on him.

Good...glad to be of help.

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I am worried by a jockey that cant tell how fast he is going. I understand that there are some jocks that are not great in the mornings that are fine in the races but very few of those win the derby

That is a seriously good point. We'll know what happened if Spun is leading by 10 going into the clubhouse turn .

[tycharles01]

Dominican got a chance if they decide to run on POLY

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Dominican got a chance if they decide to run on POLY

Yeah, no horse has ever duplicated good poly form on dirt.

[tycharles01]

Not saying that just saying if it wad run on Poly he would be 4 for 4 on it

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by philcski

I also think Dominican may be sitting on a big effort, the bad draw is obviously a concern but his style isn't as much a deterrent from out there. I like his chances to hit the board at a square price.

The "ultimate equipment change" is something more trainers/owners need to consider. It has turned this guy from a talented but unmanageable colt (see the KYJC) to a "graceful" (a very good description) runner. Unfortunately for the game, the goolies are the value in today's society...

That was 'unmanageable ridgling,' one testicle not descended, deemed to have been causing abdominal discomfort. Sometimes they leave the descended one, but with this one they took both.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

He would have been my top pick...but, his connections & the work scared me from doing that.

......dont overthink, its just a horse race. i remember ferdinand worked 58 flat, thats
before churchill was santa anita east.......he won rather easy

[Samarta]

You know it's a crap shoot....I think Hard Spun is as good as any horse in the field...One thing about the work that doesn't bother me is it's been a while since he raced and he was a handfull. So the 57 and 3 cured some of that, no doubt....but he has apparently been full of himself since as well, so they might be sitting on a monster....who knows....I am still amazed that he's 15/1 on the m/l. I just don't understand it and will be amazed if he isn't close to or even the betting fav at post time.....

[slotdirt]

I'm starting to worry about a faster than expected pace.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm starting to worry about a faster than expected pace.

You think that Hard Spun is going to gun to the front? Maybe Teuflesberg will loaf around and wire the field.

[slotdirt]

Well, if we get the Nobiz like Shobiz of the Wood, he's going to be at or near the lead, I'm guessing. THere are plenty of horses here who probably won't have the opportunity to run their usual race. (Yes, I know, Captain Obvious here.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Yeah, no horse has ever duplicated good poly form on dirt.

Dominican has actually repeated his Churchill effort three back twice on the poly, same three numbers. I actually have him as a board contender now, orginally thought he was a rat but he isn't

[golfer]

Dominican isn't a rat, but can you see him improving on the 3's? And if he runs another 3, where does that put him?
As far as Hard Spun is concerned, I agree with AJ, his competition to this point is very questionable. Sedgefield's only fast race ever was the Lane's End. His turf race 2 weeks later was his "normal" race.