My Derby Trend.....

A liitle off topic but...
I remember being at Saratoga one morning for morning works when Baffert was getting Congaree ready as a 2yo....This would have been in July or August...what month did Congareee make his first start...My memory may be incorrect but I'm thinking that at the time that I saw him that morning, he had not raced yet...I do remember that Baffert was very high on the horse...the ownwers were there also...trying to remember...not sure but it seems like the owners were Stonerside...anyway he looked very impressive that morning at the Spa...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by JJP

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.

Congaree ran an incredible race in that Derby. He struck the front too soon or he might have been your winner... the rest of the pace finished nearly dead last.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think your memory of those two races is a little sketchy.

Orville N Wilbur's--who had run a pair of 107 Beyers sprinting as a 2yo, and was coming off a 5 length win in the Gr 2 San Rafeal was loose on the lead in the SA Derby. Indian Charlie and eventual champion sprinter Artax were stalking in 2nd and 3rd.

In the '01 Wood...Richly Blended, who broke his maiden by 15 lengths earlier in the year, and won the Gotham in his prior start, was loose on the lead. Congaree stalked him.

Indian Charlie was a freak--he made his stakes debut in that SA Derby, and won it in stakes record time, earning the highest Beyer ever published in the SA Derby. Like Congaree, he ran 3rd in the Ky Derby, but he came out of the race with a career ending injury.

Congaree just loved AQU...he was 4-for-4 there in his career---winning two Cigar Miles, a Wood Memorial, and a Carter...all of them supremely impressive fashion.

You're going by how the horses looked on paper going into the race, not what actually happened. I loved Real Quiet and Monarchos in the Derby for a reason....both were compromised by soft to slow paces in those preps and still ran well. I don't care if Artax was in there or not, they went slowly and SA was notorious for being speed favoring. You're right about Richly Blended's record, but he went slowly as well. Anyone who watched the Wood knew Monarchos had little or no chance to catch Congare, who prompted that soft pace.

I do agree w/your point about the expected pace in the Derby usually being fast. Too many dillusional owners of horses who shouldn't be running past 1 1/16 miles.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Well, we will just have to disagree.

I bet Real Queit and had the exacta in that year's Derby, and while I didn't bet either Congaree or Monarchos in the Derby--I personally felt going in that Monarchos was the more dangerous of the two because of the pace.

However, I just don't think it's fair to say they that those two ran better than Congaree and Indian Charlie in their Derby preps.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

woah. for 7 years i've put up with you insulting one of the greatly most underrated horses of all time, and now you call IC a freak?

I was obviously just kidding....

He's a bigger bum than Sun King or Meadow Flight.

Sun King a bum? That would mean 95% of todays horses are bums.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

There is something else about these horses along with
Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Monarchos, War Emblem
oh yeah.. my 3 syllable rule.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

1997 - 3
1998 - 5
2001 - 8
2002 - 4
2003 - 6
2004 - 7
2005 - 8
2006 - 10

I think the above is correct, but if not, don't shoot me over it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Don't worry, I will take your word.

I'm not about to go combing through old result charts, saying names outloud and clapping.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Don't worry, I will take your word.

I'm not about to go combing through old result charts, saying names outloud and clapping.

LMFAO! I skipped the clapping part.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

I'm glad everyone is having fun with this

but how many horses can you eliminate cause they don't

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I'm glad everyone is having fun with this

but how many horses can you eliminate cause they don't

Hey, I'm with you. I do the same thing... haha.

Last year, Eurobounce had some psychic lady predicting the derby. It was hilarious.

[tiznowthegreat]

4 horses nominated to the TC fit your so called derby trend this year -
Chelokee
I'm a Numbers Guy (No recorded workouts)
Steelix
Tiz Wonderful (Injured and off trail)

Looks like according to your formula it could be back to back for Matz!

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

4 horses nominated to the TC fit your so called derby trend this year -
Chelokee
I'm a Numbers Guy (No recorded workouts)
Steelix
Tiz Wonderful (Injured and off trail)

Looks like according to your formula it could be back to back for Matz!

I saw Steelix run last Saturday, and I think it's safe to say that the colt doesn't have much of a chance.