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#21
02-05-2007, 05:01 PM
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I'm not gonna go crazy on this race, probably put $5-10 acrossed on Notional.
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#22
02-05-2007, 07:03 PM
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Quote:
 There are so many other ways to make money with a tough horse than stretching him out for your Derby dreams.
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#23
02-06-2007, 08:01 AM
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My guess is that Circular Quay is going here instead of FLA or SoCal is the length of the FG stretch. Horse who closes the way CQ does needs every bit of stretch he can get.
As an aside, has anybody noticed in the simulcasts from South America how insanely long the final straights are there? Could explain why some big winners down there don't do as well up here - they are grinders who need that long stretch to get up speed and pass the field.
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#24
02-06-2007, 08:20 AM
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CQ is the 9/5 morning line favorite... I added all the morning lines to the earlier post that lists the entire field.
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#25
02-06-2007, 08:28 AM
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Notional is a good bet against with the outside post. Circular Quay is an okay bet against with it being his first start of the year.
There is no shortage of speed which makes me like the Calder shipper a bit. Imawildandcrazyguy came from six lengths off a 23 4/5 quarter, and 48 3/5 half to win by 10. Third horse came back to win. There are things to like there, and you cannot argue with finding a closer at a decent price in a race of speed.
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#26
02-06-2007, 08:35 AM
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Perhaps the best recco for Wildandcrazyguy is the performances of Bill Kaplan's other pair the last two weeks.. Kaplan's situation is the wildest and craziest on the Derby Trail. A relative unknown with a 12 horse barn and three with potential for Louisville. Based on Storm in May's and Drums of Thunder's efforts at GP, I'd expect another strong effort from this one at N'orleans Saturday. Kaplan thinks just as highly of him as the other two...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#27
02-06-2007, 08:37 AM
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I can't imagine any other horse in the field is a better closer than CQ. But his likely short price and first run off the layoff, make him less than appealing as a win bet. I'd think you'll get a nice price on Imawildandcrazyguy.
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#28
02-06-2007, 09:13 AM
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Haven't looked at the PPs, but if there is plenty of speed, then I sit it custom-fit for CQ.
The negatives are that he already has the earnings for the derby so he may not be asked for his best, it's a 14 horse field and traffic could be an issue, and it is his first start of the year. Still, he's been working steady at Hollywood for awhile now, so I expect a solid effort from him.
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#29
02-06-2007, 09:16 AM
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Yeah, the first start off a layoff plus knowing they don't have to get wins or earnings to get into the derby could play a role.. But, CQ did win in his debut, so I don't see why he can't do it again!
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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