Sns??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Sir Greeley is just the horse to expose Strong Pretender for the fraud he is. At that point all his goo-goos will either have to acknowledge Sir Greeley as a top horse or that they were wrong about Strong Pretender. Win-win for me either way.

Strong Contendor may not be the horse many have thought he is but he is far more talented than Sir Greeley.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Strong Contendor may not be the horse many have thought he is but he is far more talented than Sir Greeley.

I hope they get to face off this weekend so you can see for yourself how wrong you are. I don't know if Sir Greeley can handle Sweetnorthernsaint but I'm not worried about Strong Pretender in the least.

[Cajungator26]

Strong Contender is more talented than Sir Greeley. Sorry, but he is...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Strong Contender is more talented than Sir Greeley. Sorry, but he is...

He's more accomplished by winning some terrible 3yo restricted races but not more talented. Here are their last 7 equibase speed figures:

Strong Contender
113
111
102
97
99
97
83

Sir Greeley
125
108
110
110
111
96
113

Sir Greeley went off at 7/2 in the Met Mile. I'd like to see Strong Pretender go off at those odds.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's more accomplished by winning some terrible 3yo restricted races but not more talented. Here are their last 7 equibase speed figures:

Strong Contender
113
111
102
97
99
97
83

Sir Greeley
125
108
110
110
111
96
113

Sir Greeley went off at 7/2 in the Met Mile. I'd like to see Strong Pretender go off at those odds.

I don't care what odds he goes off as, IMO, he is more talented than Sir Greeley. Overrated? YES, but definitely not a mule. SNS will take care of them both, either way... LOL.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Sir Greeley went off at 7/2 in the Met Mile. I'd like to see Strong Pretender go off at those odds.

And he was eased.....proving PT Barnum was right once again.

He's a moderately talented allowance type. Strong Contendor has flashed signs of genuine ability, and he certainly has a bad trainer to overcome, but he may turn out to be a very nice horse. Sir Greeley is an above average allowance horse.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And he was eased.....proving PT Barnum was right once again.

He's a moderately talented allowance type. Strong Contendor has flashed signs of genuine ability, and he certainly has a bad trainer to overcome, but he may turn out to be a very nice horse. Sir Greeley is an above average allowance horse.

I agree...

I can see SC improving this year... he's a big colt and I think that's tougher on a horse to overcome.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And he was eased.....proving PT Barnum was right once again.

He's a moderately talented allowance type. Strong Contendor has flashed signs of genuine ability, and he certainly has a bad trainer to overcome, but he may turn out to be a very nice horse. Sir Greeley is an above average allowance horse.

I'd say Sir Greeley is a legit G3 level horse in open company (having won 1 and run 2nd in another) that has also run 2nd in an open G1 and an open G2. I can't say the same for Strong Pretender who has only raced in 3yo restricted races so far and done nothing to impress me. The good thing is they'll get to prove themselves on the track on Saturday (hopefully). I don't know about Sir Greeley winning the race but he will finish ahead of Strong Pretender.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd say Sir Greeley is a legit G3 level horse in open company (having won 1 and run 2nd in another) that has also run 2nd in an open G1 and an open G2. I can't say the same for Strong Pretender who has only raced in 3yo restricted races so far and done nothing to impress me. The good thing is they'll get to prove themselves on the track on Saturday (hopefully). I don't know about Sir Greeley winning the race but he will finish ahead of Strong Pretender.

He was second in the Grade 1 Carter....which had an ungraded field last year....but you know that.

Here's the point....if someone had a crystal ball and said I happen to know that either Sir Greeley OR Strong Contendor will be a Grade 1 winner in 2007, and there was wagering on this proposition, Strong Contendor would be 1:9. That is indisputable.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know about Sir Greeley winning the race but he will finish ahead of Strong Pretender.

Originally Posted by Blackthroatedwind

Strong Contendor may not be the horse many have thought he is but he is far more talented than Sir Greeley.

Originally Posted by Cajungator

I don't care what odds he goes off as, IMO, he is more talented than Sir Greeley. Overrated? YES, but definitely not a mule. SNS will take care of them both, either way... LOL.

note to self: remember to post matchup odds this weekend between Strong Contender, Sir Greeley, and SNS.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second in the Grade 1 Carter....which had an ungraded field last year....but you know that.

Here's the point....if someone had a crystal ball and said I happen to know that either Sir Greeley OR Strong Contendor will be a Grade 1 winner in 2007, and there was wagering on this proposition, Strong Contendor would be 1:9. That is indisputable.

I 'd love to take 1:9 on that. There are a limited number of G1 winners in route races in the older male division. Last year you had Invasor, Lava Man, Premium Tap, Seek Gold, and Brass Hat. That was it, five older males won a G1 routing. In the sprints you had Thor's Echo, Pure As Gold, Bordonaro, Bishop Court Hill, Siren Lure, Silver Train, and Pomeroy. So seven older horses won a G1 sprinting. Seek Gold is a rare case, typically you have to be very good to win a G1 routing in the older horse division while we know that G1 sprints are frequently won by less than G1 animals.

All I'm asking for is when Sir Greeley beats Strong Pretender on Saturday that all the Pretendermaniacs don't make excuses or go into hiding and acknowledge that they either underrated Sir Greeley, overrated Strong Pretender, or both.

[KirisClown]

Strog Contender should run a big one this weekend... the distance is ideal for him...

[blackthroatedwind]

I think you're missing my point....


Sir Greeley is a nice horse. I am not disputing this. Strong Contendor had an undeserved reputation last year. I am not a fan of his trainer and not a fan of him particularly. However, he did run three pretty good races last year. His first start of 2006, the Dwyer ( yes, I understand the fig may be high as it was a tricky day and yes I know he had a perfect trip ) and the Super Derby. None of these were spectacular efforts but all were pretty good. Thus, I believe the possibility exists that he will be one of the better older horses running this year. I also won't be surprised when he turns out to be a complete fraud. However, he is FAR more likely to win a Grade 1 than Sir Greeley as we know Sir Greely has next to zero chance to win one and Strong Contendor is still an unproven commodity. Do I think he is a favorite to win a Grade 1? At this point, no he isn't, but he also is less than 5-1 to win one this year. Sir Greeley is legitimately over 30-1 and probably closer to 50-1 ( if not higher ) to win one.

Do I expect Strong Performer to finish ahead of Sir Greeley should they meet this weekend? Well, I would need to see the pps, and at this point I have no opinion on that. But, I don't think it's arguable that he has more upside. That is really all I am trying to say. Sir Greeley is a known commodity.

[Gander]

I give Sir Greeley a better shot at finishing 2nd than Strong Contender. Strong Contender either wins this or is off the board. Sir Greeley hardly ever wins races, seems to be gifted in the art of finding ways to lose.

Strong Contender is very talented but I dont disagree that he has always been overrated but thats not his fault. I think he wins this weekend but that still wont satisfy all the naysayers.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you're missing my point....


Sir Greeley is a nice horse. I am not disputing this. Strong Contendor had an undeserved reputation last year. I am not a fan of his trainer and not a fan of him particularly. However, he did run three pretty good races last year. His first start of 2006, the Dwyer ( yes, I understand the fig may be high as it was a tricky day and yes I know he had a perfect trip ) and the Super Derby. None of these were spectacular efforts but all were pretty good. Thus, I believe the possibility exists that he will be one of the better older horses running this year. I also won't be surprised when he turns out to be a complete fraud. However, he is FAR more likely to win a Grade 1 than Sir Greeley as we know Sir Greely has next to zero chance to win one and Strong Contendor is still an unproven commodity. Do I think he is a favorite to win a Grade 1? At this point, no he isn't, but he also is less than 5-1 to win one this year. Sir Greeley is legitimately over 30-1 and probably closer to 50-1 ( if not higher ) to win one.

Do I expect Strong Performer to finish ahead of Sir Greeley should they meet this weekend? Well, I would need to see the pps, and at this point I have no opinion on that. But, I don't think it's arguable that he has more upside. That is really all I am trying to say. Sir Greeley is a known commodity.

So do you think Strong Pretender is a better horse than Sun King? Sir Greeley dusted Sun King at this track and distance last year.

5-1 for Strong Pretender to win a G1 this year????? Even if he lives up to his trainers expectations he is still 5-1. There are so few opportunities to win a G1 in the older horse division and with horses like Invasor and Premium Tap coming back those chances will be further limited. Then throw in a bunch of 3yos from his crop that have as good a chance as him of moving forward (SNS, Lawyer Ron, Discreet Cat, even Steppenwolfer and Jazil plus a couple wild cards like Sunriver, Deputy Glitters, and High Cotton) and you are looking at way more than 5-1 before even including the Sun Kings and Wild Deserts and other known commodities.

The fact that Sir Greeley is a known commodity is why I love this matchup. No one can try and claim that Strong Pretender is as great as he's been made out to be if he can't beat Sir Greeley. Although I'm sure they'll try. Some mysterious anti-nag bias will have cropped up and compromised Strong Pretender.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am not going to go through the mathematical permutations but I think it is pretty fair to say that Strong Contendor is in the 16% range to win a least one Grade 1 this year. Maybe he's closer to 10% but he certainly has a very real chance. Sir Greeley has next to no chance.

Sun King is obviously a superior horse to Sir Greeley, the fact that he finished behind him in a meaningless allowance race ( coincidentally the kind of race Sir Greeley excels in ) is irrelevent to their respective talents, and I would hope you know that. Sir Greeley was on the pace, on a speed favoring track, while Sun King was wide and clearly closer than he would prefer to be. Considering their subsequent performances it would be silly to even suggest Sir Greeley is a better horse. Right now Sun King is superior to Strong Contendor but I would say Strong Contendor has more upside. He is probably more likely to win a Grade 1 in 2007 than Sun King.

Once again, I have no idea who has a better chance should these horses meet Saturday, and have made many bets ( and even won some ) on horses I believed to be inferior to their competition, but there is no doubt that Strong Contendor has MUCH more upside than Sir Greeley. Only one of them has any chance of having a big year in 2007....and it aint Mr. Greeley. Arguing otherwise makes no sense.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I root for him, and he's a nice horse, but he needs to really improve to race competitively with those horses. I guess you can always take a shot in a race like the Donn, as many are using it as a World Cup prep, and it's good to sometimes get an idea where you're at.

We'll see. I'll ask.

Tell him that I recommend it

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am not going to go through the mathematical permutations but I think it is pretty fair to say that Strong Contendor is in the 16% range to win a least one Grade 1 this year. Maybe he's closer to 10% but he certainly has a very real chance. Sir Greeley has next to no chance.

Sun King is obviously a superior horse to Sir Greeley, the fact that he finished behind him in a meaningless allowance race ( coincidentally the kind of race Sir Greeley excels in ) is irrelevent to their respective talents, and I would hope you know that. Sir Greeley was on the pace, on a speed favoring track, while Sun King was wide and clearly closer than he would prefer to be. Considering their subsequent performances it would be silly to even suggest Sir Greeley is a better horse. Right now Sun King is superior to Strong Contendor but I would say Strong Contendor has more upside. He is probably more likely to win a Grade 1 in 2007 than Sun King.

Once again, I have no idea who has a better chance should these horses meet Saturday, and have made many bets ( and even won some ) on horses I believed to be inferior to their competition, but there is no doubt that Strong Contendor has MUCH more upside than Sir Greeley. Only one of them has any chance of having a big year in 2007....and it aint Mr. Greeley. Arguing otherwise makes no sense.

OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.

If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit. You really don't understand how to look at this mathematically and the example you gave is WAY off course. Here's a SMALL part....if Strong Contendor ran in only two grade 1s, and was 20-1 in each, he would be under 10-1 to win a Grade 1 this year.

I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit.

I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.

I'd put him at 50-1 to get to the gate of the Donn and actually win it, maybe more like 70-1 since he still has to get through this prep and come back in 4 weeks. Then it is three more months before there is another G1 on the east coast which means he has to stay healthy and in training and performing at a high enough level to even be entered in another G1. I think that is incredibly unlikely and that even if he does enter another G1 his chances of winning are 50-1 again.

At least Sir Greeley will almost certainly be in the Carter and Met Mile as he has been a durable horse so perhaps the 50-1 odds on him are too low if you think 35-1 is completely unrealistic.