Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I posted this at one other place, thought I'd post it here as well...it might lead to some interesting discussions.

This is always a very tricky list. I tend to overlook slow performances in bad Grade 1 races, and focus primarily on horses who ran VERY fast with once-in-a-lifetime trips and circumstances.

In other words, horses like Seek Gold and Sultra didn't make the top 20---for their pathetic Grade 1 wins in time so slow, you could have timed the race with an hour glass or a sundial. Horses who win the coveted Grade 1's that way, (Lemons Forever) will however, get moved up.

Here are my rankings......


#1 Blue Grass Stakes- Sinister Minister.

*Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On that Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run that week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

#2 Arlington Million- The Tin Man

* America's most important Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day was won in theft fashion. It featured an INSANELY slow early pace and almost no passing at all. Perhaps, a less popular, and less likeable horse, wouldn't have been heaped with praise for such a victory. However, the California horse racing radio shows were flooded with callers who took strong offense to The Tin Man's win being criticized.

#3 Kentucky Oaks- Lemons Forever

* While it can be argued that horses like Sultra and Seek Gold were even less deserving Grade 1 winners than this talentless plodder, she did win the most important Grade 1 race in the land for 3-year-old fillies, and deserves this ranking for the wildly circmustance aided way she won it. Aided by an INSANELY hot pace, and a dead-rail track, she looped the field from 14th and last place---a field that was badly fractured.

#4 Goodwood Handicap- Lava Man

* Over the same wildly speed biased race track that yielded the best Beyer figure of the year (Bordonaro's 119 in wire-to-wire style) Lava Man was allowed an uncontested lead through soft early fractions. In what should have been a massacre with a sky high Beyer, Lava Man manged only a 109 figure, and ran absoltuely no better than 3rd place finisher Giacomo did against the circumstances.

#5 Street Sense- Breeders Cup Juvie

* While it was a sight to see---and it can't be easy to knock a double digit Breeders Cup Juvie winner who ran BY FAR a record Beyer figure in that race---the simple fact is that this performance was a circumstancial fluke that will not be repeated anytime soon. In a classic Churchill Downs collapse race (ala Seek Gold, Giacomo, and Lemons Forever) the horses who raced dead last and 2nd to last early on in the Juvie, ended up first and 2nd. The rest of the field BADLY fractured. However, not only was it a dream setup and dream pace scenerio---he also got a sensational rail-skimming ride over a track where the rail path was probably preffered. He also broke from post position #1, that post produced 4-of the-5 dirt winners on Breeders Cup day...the only loser recorded a lifetime top Beyer figure in defeat.

#6. Master Commander- Meadowlands Cup

#7. Jazil- Belmont Stakes

#8. Brother Derek- Santa Anita Derby

#9. Dubai Escapade- Ballerina Handicap

#10. Fleet Indian- Personal Ensign

#11. Henny Hughes- King's Bishop

#12. Aragorn- Eddie Reed

#13. Fabulous Strike- Mountaineer Stake

#14. Brother Derek- San Rafeal

#15. Circular Quay- Hopeful Stakes

#16. Pine Island- Gazelle

#17. Sun King- 2nd place Whitney Stakes

#18. Anew- True North Handicap

#19. Magna Graduate- Queen's County Hanidcap

#20. Bernardini- Jockey Club Gold Cup

#21. Seek Gold- Stephen Foster

#22. Likely- Laffeyette Stakes

#23. Stormello- Hollywood Futurity

#24. Sultra- Frizette Stakes

#25. Lawerence The Roman- Damon Runyon Stakes

1. Very impressive.

2. You show up, you run, you win, you've earned it. Period. There was no law at Keeneland saying you couldn't take on SinMin early. Same for Hollywood and Lava Man.

3. In my mind, the only arguably overrated graded race winners ran in off-the-turf races.

[philcski]

[quote=The Indomitable DrugS]I posted this at one other place, thought I'd post it here as well...it might lead to some interesting discussions.

This is always a very tricky list. I tend to overlook slow performances in bad Grade 1 races, and focus primarily on horses who ran VERY fast with once-in-a-lifetime trips and circumstances.

In other words, horses like Seek Gold and Sultra didn't make the top 20---for their pathetic Grade 1 wins in time so slow, you could have timed the race with an hour glass or a sundial. Horses who win the coveted Grade 1's that way, (Lemons Forever) will however, get moved up.

Here are my rankings......


#1 Blue Grass Stakes- Sinister Minister. AGREE, HOWEVER A LOT OF PEOPLE SAW THROUGH IT

*Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On that Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run that week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

#2 Arlington Million- The Tin Man I BLAME THE JOCKEYS, NOT THE HORSE HERE

* America's most important Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day was won in theft fashion. It featured an INSANELY slow early pace and almost no passing at all. Perhaps, a less popular, and less likeable horse, wouldn't have been heaped with praise for such a victory. However, the California horse racing radio shows were flooded with callers who took strong offense to The Tin Man's win being criticized.

#3 Kentucky Oaks- Lemons Forever LUCKY? YES. OVERRATED? NO.

* While it can be argued that horses like Sultra and Seek Gold were even less deserving Grade 1 winners than this talentless plodder, she did win the most important Grade 1 race in the land for 3-year-old fillies, and deserves this ranking for the wildly circmustance aided way she won it. Aided by an INSANELY hot pace, and a dead-rail track, she looped the field from 14th and last place---a field that was badly fractured.

#4 Goodwood Handicap- Lava Man AGREE

* Over the same wildly speed biased race track that yielded the best Beyer figure of the year (Bordonaro's 119 in wire-to-wire style) Lava Man was allowed an uncontested lead through soft early fractions. In what should have been a massacre with a sky high Beyer, Lava Man manged only a 109 figure, and ran absoltuely no better than 3rd place finisher Giacomo did against the circumstances.

#5 Street Sense- Breeders Cup Juvie A GOOD WIN? YES. OVERRATED? YES.

* While it was a sight to see---and it can't be easy to knock a double digit Breeders Cup Juvie winner who ran BY FAR a record Beyer figure in that race---the simple fact is that this performance was a circumstancial fluke that will not be repeated anytime soon. In a classic Churchill Downs collapse race (ala Seek Gold, Giacomo, and Lemons Forever) the horses who raced dead last and 2nd to last early on in the Juvie, ended up first and 2nd. The rest of the field BADLY fractured. However, not only was it a dream setup and dream pace scenerio---he also got a sensational rail-skimming ride over a track where the rail path was probably preffered. He also broke from post position #1, that post produced 4-of the-5 dirt winners on Breeders Cup day...the only loser recorded a lifetime top Beyer figure in defeat.

#6. Master Commander- Meadowlands Cup DON'T KNOW

#7. Jazil- Belmont Stakes DISAGREE. NOT A GREAT CLASSIC WINNER BUT NOT OVERRATED, EITHER

#8. Brother Derek- Santa Anita Derby AGREE THAT IT WAS OVERRATED

#9. Dubai Escapade- Ballerina Handicap DISAGREE, THE FIELD WAS TERRIBLE AND SHE DESTROYED IT

#10. Fleet Indian- Personal Ensign VERY MUCH AGREE I'D PUT THIS #1

#11. Henny Hughes- King's Bishop DISAGREE. NOTHING OVERRATED ABOUT THAT SPECIFIC RACE

#12. Aragorn- Eddie Reed AGREE

#13. Fabulous Strike- Mountaineer Stake ?? HE RAN 2ND AT A HUGE PRICE IN THE RIVA RIDGE. NOT FOLLOWING YOU HERE

#14. Brother Derek- San Rafeal CAN'T REMEMBER

#15. Circular Quay- Hopeful Stakes DEFINITELY AGREE

#16. Pine Island- Gazelle DISAGREE

#17. Sun King- 2nd place Whitney Stakes DEFINITELY DISAGREE

#18. Anew- True North Handicap DISAGREE

#19. Magna Graduate- Queen's County Hanidcap AGREE

#20. Bernardini- Jockey Club Gold Cup TOUGH CALL. A GOOD PERFORMANCE? YES. OVERRATED? YES.

#21. Seek Gold- Stephen Foster HOW WAS IT OVERRATED IF HE WAS LIKE 99-1?

#22. Likely- Laffeyette Stakes

#23. Stormello- Hollywood Futurity

#24. Sultra- Frizette Stakes THE WORST G1, EVER

#25. Lawerence The Roman- Damon Runyon Stakes WE'LL SEE. BIAS AIDED? YES. OVERRATED? WE'LL SEE IN HIS NEXT RACE.

[Seattleallstar]

all races involving Lava Man

Tin Man Million

Henny Hughes races

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

all races involving Lava Man

Tin Man Million

Henny Hughes races

All races involving Discreet Cat.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

All races involving Discreet Cat.

You brought it on yourself CJ......

More rehasing of old DrugS posts from elsewhere.....the 2nd "copy-paste" special of mine in this thread...

Discreet Cat VS Ghostzapper through their 3-year-old seasons

Career debut:

Discreet Cat: 1st by 3.5 lengths, 106 Beyer, 0 on Thoro-Graph
Ghostzapper: 1st by 9 lengths, 99 Beyer, 2 on Thoro-Graph


Record through 3yo season:

Discreet Cat: 6-6-0-0
Ghostzapper: 6-4-0-1


Top Career Beyer Through 3yo season:

Discreet Cat: 116
Ghostzapper 116

Worst Beyer of career:

Discreet Cat: 106
Ghostzapper: (3 times under 100)

Top Career Thoro-Graph figure through 3yo season:

Discreet Cat: -4.5 in Spa ALW, -4.75 in Jerome, ? for Cigar Mile
Ghostzapper: -4.5 in Vosburgh. By far his top

Grade 1 wins:

Discreet Cat: 1
Ghostzapper: 1

Number of starts around two-turns:

Discreet Cat: 0
Ghostzapper: 0

Why have the connections been shy to route these horses at a Classic distance:

Discreet Cat: Sire throws milers, dam was a speed mudder
Ghostzapper: Dam dropped confirmed sprinter City Zip

Both have falsly diagnosed pedigrees, and are absolutely bred to be speed routers.

The big difference: Connections:

Discreet Cat: Fools who think it's best to keep a horse in Dubai all winter
Ghostzapper: The magical Bobby Frankel

Conclusion: These horses are VERY similar through there 3-year-old season. Discreet Cat obviously holds the edge to this point----however, even being lightly raced, it's VERY unlikely he will make a big jump in form during his 4yo season like GZ did.

Discreet Cat is about to spend his 2ND entire winter in Dubai.

[cmorioles]

...and again, Ghostzapper is considered great for what he did at 4, not 3. You say yourself it is very unlikely he will make the big jump, so what is the point of the comparison?

This is like comparing Christian Laettner's Duke career to that of Michael Jordan at North Carolina. While both were outstanding at that reduced level, one was clearly overrated when the competition was stepped up. (Hint: It was the white guy)

I have some doubts that DC will be the great horse some make him out to be. I would not be shocked if he is though. But as a bettor, though I'll probably never get the chance, I'll take my shot against him at a ridiculously low price if he ever faces top class horses in the U.S. My main point is that due to the pathetic fields he lined up against, including the Cigar Mile, he performances almost have to be overrated.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

...and again, Ghostzapper is considered great for what he did at 4, not 3. You say yourself it is very unlikely he will make the big jump, so what is the point of the comparison?

This is like comparing Christian Laettner's Duke career to that of Michael Jordan at North Carolina. While both were outstanding at that reduced level, one was clearly overrated when the competition was stepped up. (Hint: It was the white guy)

I have some doubts that DC will be the great horse some make him out to be. I would not be shocked if he is though. But as a bettor, though I'll probably never get the chance, I'll take my shot against him at a ridiculously low price if he ever faces top class horses in the U.S. My main point is that due to the pathetic fields he lined up against, including the Cigar Mile, he performances almost have to be overrated.

Pre-NBA Laettner *sigh*

Any of the G1's won by Hollywood Story, Star Parade or Healthy Addiction.

What was the grade of the Oaklawn race Buzzard's Bay won?

[boswd]

In terms of Lemons Forever I would correct you in the Fact that the Alabama is histrocally the most important Grade I for 3 yr oldFilly's. It's the olderst Richest, non BC race and ran at 1 1/4.
The Oaks gets most of it's attention due to the fact they placed it a day before the Derby to give it a more grander exposure. I would say it is numer two though.

Yeah, that signature is interesting. Jesus, im thankful I missed the thread its from.

Actually, Drugs... pretty conclusive list. I cant really add any to it.

[Getaway]

I would love to own any one of those horses on that list!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

what no one wonder lady ann l ..totally fell into that gr 1..probebly should be no 1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Brother Derek is pretty damn nice horse actually.

However, his wins in both the San Rafeal and the Santa Anita Derby came uncontested on a comfortable lead, through very moderate fractions. Both wins were earned with textbook dream trips.

Brother Derek was made the morning line favorite for the Derby, pretty much off the basis of those two perfect trip wins.

BD is a pretty good horse as it is....however, when he is allowed an easy early lead through moderate fractions...he becomes a VERY good horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

I would say a case could be made that Brother Derek's KY Derby was the most wildly overrated performance by a losing horse this year. His wide trip was every phony wise guy's trip of the year causing people to inflate his chances in the Preakness which wasn't going to set up well for him even if he wasn't eliminated early in the race.

Was Discreet Cat's win at Saratoga going to be 25th so you snuck Sun King in just to keep him off the list?

[Swale84]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would say a case could be made that Brother Derek's KY Derby was the most wildly overrated performance by a losing horse this year. His wide trip was every phony wise guy's trip of the year causing people to inflate his chances in the Preakness which wasn't going to set up well for him even if he wasn't eliminated early in the race.

Was Discreet Cat's win at Saratoga going to be 25th so you snuck Sun King in just to keep him off the list?

Discreet Cat's win against a bunch of nobodys got all the Bernardini haters excited that Bernie would go down.