Form has gone out the window . . . or

[DonGuido]

maybe it's just me? Upets all over the cards on a large majority of races for cards going back weeks if not months. 80-1 shot coming in 2nd today at the Florida Derby for example. Wonder if anybody had him in their Pick 6?

Are the odds makers smoking something, are the bettors whacked out, "does anybody really know what time it is . . . does anybody care" Chicago. Our points scores have been pathetically lower than I can ever remember in the past years.

Not that any of this really matters in the big picture of life but still . . . something is very different this year, so far anyway . . . or is just me???

[cal828]

To be honest, I don't think it's all that unusual. Frustrating for sure and I sympathize with you, but I think it's pretty typical of horse racing. I think Miz Ruffian has the right idea. The rest of us try to make it a reasonable logical thing, but it just isn't and we refuse to accept it and keep on doing the same things (which is how some people define insanity.)

Really, I think there are parts of handicapping that are logical and parts that are not. The problem is figuring out which is which.

[JolyB]

I don't think that the handicapping world has shifted on its axis. There have been perhaps a few more perplexing results than normal, but these things average out over time.

On today's card, there were a number of fairly predictable results and a couple that were complete headscratchers. Identifier in the Hal's Hope was one of them. Even more baffling was the 4th placed finisher in that race who went off at 128-1. The 2nd place finisher in the Derby ran an incredibly brave race - ran much better than he looked on paper.

Year in, year out post time favorites tend to win just about 33-35% of the time, depending upon the size of the field. I think that's about what we have been seeing - today was a bit under that, but the fields were very competitive so that is no surprise. I felt that the ML was somewhat off today, with a number of 8-1 or 10-1 choices in the ML in fact going off quite a bit lower than that. The bettors seem to get it right more often than the linemaker.

There are always going to be results that make no sense and horses that on paper should win but find a way to get beaten. I guess that's why successful handicappers always seek value in their plays, knowing that they have to get a good price when they win, because they are going to lose many more times than they win. The trick is winning often enough at a good price to overcome the #$%&* takeout.

[Real Quiet]

I have always believed in the theory of chaos. If the favorite is going to win a certain percentage of the time you have to find overlays underneath. Fact of the matter is I cannot pick winners and make a profit. Ruffian and Roaming can because they are not swayed by the odds.
On another tangent will there be any tracks left running?

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

I have always believed in the theory of chaos. If the favorite is going to win a certain percentage of the time you have to find overlays underneath. Fact of the matter is I cannot pick winners and make a profit. Ruffian and Roaming can because they are not swayed by the odds.
On another tangent will there be any tracks left running?

Looks like Oaklawn will keep running unless things get a whole lot worse here. I really don't know what the number of Covid 19 cases are here at the moment.

I think you are right in your observation about finding overlays underneath. I have thought that for the last 3 or 4 contests, but like a lot of other people can't seem to break out of my comfort zone so resort to my usual type of play or something totally ridiculous like a Super High 5, which I really didn't intend to play until I saw all the scratches. I still think a SH5 can be hit in a smaller field like 8 or 9 horses, but not 12.

[cal828]

419 cases in the whole state with 26 deaths which is probably a pretty small number compared to other places I'm guessing. Hard to tell whether Oaklawn will continue.