Can he do it?

[Thunder Gulch]

Sure he can, but I think he is much less likely than I had rated the likes of I'll Have Another, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and others. To me this is more like a Funny Cide or War Emblem type attempt. A very good horse at the right time, but it doesn't feel like a great one to me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Sure he can, but I think he is much less likely than I had rated the likes of I'll Have Another, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and others. To me this is more like a Funny Cide or War Emblem type attempt. A very good horse at the right time, but it doesn't feel like a great one to me.

See, I actually rate him above most of them. He did well out west, won better races then, say, the Ill. Derby. Seems far more tractable than war emblem and funny cide. Didn't care for the folks surrounding big brown, and to a degree, I'll have another. The only one of those you mention that I thought really had a shot was smarty...and I think cc has a much better rider than sj had.

But, like I said, I've seen some damn good horsesncome this far and not do it. I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that chrome will. It I'd like to see it happen.

Great story, small time owners, trainer who has worked in the industry for decades, and isn't a super trainer...a humble dam, a cheap stud fee...its something all of us on here dream of doing, finding that special horse...and playing the game at a top level without having to be rich as Croesus.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Danzig

See, I actually rate him above most of them. He did well out west, won better races then, say, the Ill. Derby. Seems far more tractable than war emblem and funny cide. Didn't care for the folks surrounding big brown, and to a degree, I'll have another. The only one of those you mention that I thought really had a shot was smarty...and I think cc has a much better rider than sj had.

But, like I said, I've seen some damn good horsesncome this far and not do it. I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that chrome will. It I'd like to see it happen.

Great story, small time owners, trainer who has worked in the industry for decades, and isn't a super trainer...a humble dam, a cheap stud fee...its something all of us on here dream of doing, finding that special horse...and playing the game at a top level without having to be rich as Croesus.

It will be good for the game.....I have people at work , neighbors asking me who I like, If the Cali horse will win the TC.....it would be good for the game

Can the horse do it? Yes I think he can. The question is will the jockey who is not a regular rider at Belmont ask him too early or too late? It would benefit Victor Espinoza to have a few mounts that week at Belmont to get him use to the configuration.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Anything is possible but I do not expect him to win. As I have said before, I think when a horse wins the first two legs he is usually pretty knocked out for the Belmont. Not only that, I think the distance is a little long for CC. I'm a big fan of CC. I liked him in the Derby and Preakness but I don't like him in the Belmont at all. There will be plenty of fresh faces in there: Tonality, Bay of Plenty, possibly Candy Boy, and Commanding Curve to name a few.

Going 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles when he's fresh, I obviously think CC is the best horse. But going 1 1/2 miles when he's not fresh, I'll take my chances going against him. I will actually be surprised if he wins. To say it is difficult to win the TC is a huge understatement.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

What horse were you watching? CC wasn't even blowing hard after the race.

ya mean on that 15 minute stroll back to the winner's circle ? he could barely pick up his feet. That was a stunning victory today though.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Gave himself a year ban if Untapable won the Oaks.

I have no idea about California Chrome but I don't think he can do it.

[LITF]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Can California Chrome win the Triple Crown?

He certainly can win The Belmont but I won't be betting him to do so. I'll take Wicked Strong with a clean trip, which he should get with a smaller field and wider turns. Danza is a serious threat, as well. Tonalist, too. Samraat is interesting. The field in The Belmont will be much stronger than todays race, which really only had one interesting horse outside of the favorite, and he was washed out, went nuts in the gate, moved too early and had missed some training leading up to the race. Still, I thought he ran his nuts off to be third. Ride on Curlin, while a nice horse, will have to run even better than he did today just to hit the board in The Belmont. In fact, I think The Belmont will be a much more competitive race than even the derby was. Certainly it will prove more difficult than the Preakness. It wouldn't surprise me if Chrome didn't even hit the board.

With that said, I don't think it matters whether or not Chrome wins. ****, he could run last. He could split the field. He could even jump off the track, wrap his hooves around some woman's stomach in the grandstand as she's choking on a hot dog, give her the heimlich, hop back onto the track and win by open lengths and it wouldn't matter much. That card is going to be insane and to end it with a possible triple crown is going to be so much fun. I can't remember being so excited for a card. It's going to be an awesome day in three weeks. I can't wait. Hopefully the "industry leaders" can somehow, someway, find a way to market such a fantastic day. If horse racing can't flourish on this Saturday in three weeks than there really is no hope for a future for a sport that had once been referred to in the same breath as Kings.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by LITF

He certainly can win The Belmont but I won't be betting him to do so. I'll take Wicked Strong with a clean trip, which he should get with a smaller field and wider turns. Danza is a serious threat, as well. Tonalist, too. Samraat is interesting. The field in The Belmont will be much stronger than todays race, which really only had one interesting horse outside of the favorite, and he was washed out, went nuts in the gate, moved too early and had missed some training leading up to the race. Still, I thought he ran his nuts off to be third. Ride on Curlin, while a nice horse, will have to run even better than he did today just to hit the board in The Belmont. In fact, I think The Belmont will be a much more competitive race than even the derby was. Certainly it will prove more difficult than the Preakness. It wouldn't surprise me if Chrome didn't even hit the board.

With that said, I don't think it matters whether or not Chrome wins. ****, he could run last. He could split the field. He could even jump off the track, wrap his hooves around some woman's stomach in the grandstand as she's choking on a hot dog, give her the heimlich, hop back onto the track and win by open lengths and it wouldn't matter much. That card is going to be insane and to end it with a possible triple crown is going to be so much fun. I can't remember being so excited for a card. It's going to be an awesome day in three weeks. I can't wait. Hopefully the "industry leaders" can somehow, someway, find a way to market such a fantastic day. If horse racing can't flourish on this Saturday in three weeks than there really is no hope for a future for a sport that had once been referred to in the same breath as Kings.

I agree with you 100%. The Belmont will be a 10x tougher field than the Preakness. It's not always like that. There have been years where the Preakness was the stronger field. But this year it is no contest. The Belmont will be a much tougher field.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by LITF

He certainly can win The Belmont but I won't be betting him to do so. I'll take Wicked Strong with a clean trip, which he should get with a smaller field and wider turns. Danza is a serious threat, as well. Tonalist, too. Samraat is interesting. The field in The Belmont will be much stronger than todays race, which really only had one interesting horse outside of the favorite, and he was washed out, went nuts in the gate, moved too early and had missed some training leading up to the race. Still, I thought he ran his nuts off to be third. Ride on Curlin, while a nice horse, will have to run even better than he did today just to hit the board in The Belmont. In fact, I think The Belmont will be a much more competitive race than even the derby was. Certainly it will prove more difficult than the Preakness. It wouldn't surprise me if Chrome didn't even hit the board.

With that said, I don't think it matters whether or not Chrome wins. ****, he could run last. He could split the field. He could even jump off the track, wrap his hooves around some woman's stomach in the grandstand as she's choking on a hot dog, give her the heimlich, hop back onto the track and win by open lengths and it wouldn't matter much. That card is going to be insane and to end it with a possible triple crown is going to be so much fun. I can't remember being so excited for a card. It's going to be an awesome day in three weeks. I can't wait. Hopefully the "industry leaders" can somehow, someway, find a way to market such a fantastic day. If horse racing can't flourish on this Saturday in three weeks than there really is no hope for a future for a sport that had once been referred to in the same breath as Kings.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by casp0555

It will be good for the game.....I have people at work , neighbors asking me who I like, If the Cali horse will win the TC.....it would be good for the game

No question about it - would be great for the game. A real shot in the arm on the public relations side.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Who, realistically, has a shot at him? A fresh Danza from off the pace? Commanding Curve? I don't know...This is the weirdest triple crown I can remember. For the 2nd time in two weeks, nobody went after the lead except for the desperate; Social Inclusion is a head case, Bayern is proven to be a complete fraud, Kid Cruz never got the fractions and probably wasn't good enough to do anything with them any way, General Arod can't finish....on and on... Ride On Curlin was the only horse beside Cali Chrome that even resembled and graded stake-type.
It is odd... Big Brown reminded me of a standout in a poor crop; CC just leaves me empty - like I can't even believe how crappy this entire 3yo crop is. None of these "New Shooters" - fresh, with no excuses, (other than they don't belong) couldn't come close - Not taking anything away from him, and the bettors sure had it right, but I think he wins the triple crown because this may well be the worst crop of 3yos in the history of the sport.
And I hate to say that
Because it is a backhand to one of the greatest accomplishments in all of sports.
But I just can't get away from being completely uninspired by either of these two performances.
Hopefully, something shows up at Belmont and actually gives him something to deal with - an honest pace, a closer or two than can actually wants to come after a horse, something... I don't know man...When the winner of one of the worst Tampa Bay Derby's in history - who couldn't even win the pointless "Calder Derby" -rounds out your superfecta - kinda says it all.

I think this post is a little harsh. This 3yo group may not be spectacular and was hampered with injuries (like many years) but they are far from the "worst crop of 3yos in the history of the sport". The 2008 crop was horrendous outside of Big Brown. Even with the quarter crack he was still a deserved 1/9 in the Belmont. Denis of Cork was a CLEAR second choice in there. Da'Tara won, Anak Nakal was third. That was the worst crop of three year olds in the history of the sport.

This Belmont is much stronger than you think. When 2nd through 5th skip the Preakness and point towards the Belmont, that poses a major threat to CC. They are going to be fresher and well prepared for the race. You could also argue we haven't seen the best of many of these challengers yet. Would you be surprised to see Danza or Wicked Strong improve? Danza has had just 5 career starts and is a half to a graded stakes winner over a mile and a half. Wicked Strong has had just 7 career starts, got a far less than perfect Derby trip, and is a big long striding horse meant for Belmont Park.

Throw in Tonalist who appears to be for real after his Peter Pan. The barn has been high on the horse since he broke his maiden at Gulfstream. Only 4 career starts, another hometrack advantage type, tactical speed to give Rosario plenty of options, and also looks like the longer they go the better.

Haven't even mentioned Commanding Curve or Intense Holiday. If CC is going to win the Triple Crown he's really going to have to earn it.

So before you cite the horse who ran 5th beaten 12 lengths and claim that him completing the superfecta is why this years crop is the worst of all time maybe you should take a look at the prospective Belmont field.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by LITF

He certainly can win The Belmont but I won't be betting him to do so. I'll take Wicked Strong with a clean trip, which he should get with a smaller field and wider turns. Danza is a serious threat, as well. Tonalist, too. Samraat is interesting. The field in The Belmont will be much stronger than todays race, which really only had one interesting horse outside of the favorite, and he was washed out, went nuts in the gate, moved too early and had missed some training leading up to the race. Still, I thought he ran his nuts off to be third. Ride on Curlin, while a nice horse, will have to run even better than he did today just to hit the board in The Belmont. In fact, I think The Belmont will be a much more competitive race than even the derby was. Certainly it will prove more difficult than the Preakness. It wouldn't surprise me if Chrome didn't even hit the board.

With that said, I don't think it matters whether or not Chrome wins. ****, he could run last. He could split the field. He could even jump off the track, wrap his hooves around some woman's stomach in the grandstand as she's choking on a hot dog, give her the heimlich, hop back onto the track and win by open lengths and it wouldn't matter much. That card is going to be insane and to end it with a possible triple crown is going to be so much fun. I can't remember being so excited for a card. It's going to be an awesome day in three weeks. I can't wait. Hopefully the "industry leaders" can somehow, someway, find a way to market such a fantastic day. If horse racing can't flourish on this Saturday in three weeks than there really is no hope for a future for a sport that had once been referred to in the same breath as Kings.

Save my brillance this is the best post I have read on DT in a while..NICE

[Benny]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

Can the horse do it? Yes I think he can. The question is will the jockey who is not a regular rider at Belmont ask him too early or too late? It would benefit Victor Espinoza to have a few mounts that week at Belmont to get him use to the configuration.

Agree that he needs to get a feel for the unique Belmont strip a few days before, BUT, I think his brother can be very helpful tohim in preparation as he has many years on it.

That said CC has had two great trips on the TC trail. All it takes is a bad break from the gate or a bad trip as he will be targeted by freshened shooters. Victor admitted to the mental presssures he felt as the race didnot go as he thought it would, good thing he is so experienced.

[Calzone Lord]

In a crop hit hard by injuries and setbacks to promising route horses like Shared Belief, New Year's Day, and Honor Code...

California Chrome has certainly been a great thing for racing. Let's pretend he wrenched an ankle after the Santa Anita Derby.

That leaves Commanding Curve as your Kentucky Derby winner:



Instead of wearing a blanket of roses and etched in history as a Kentucky Derby winner, Commanding Curve still has his N1X allowance condition.


Ride On Curlin, a horse who is 0-for-8 lifetime in stakes races, would be a Preakness winner by a lopsided margin:




These two horses are a combined 1-for-15 lifetime in races beyond the distance of 6 furlongs. The lone win coming in a Maiden Special Weight race.


California Chrome hasn't exactly had to beat anywhere near the level of competition that some other horses have, to get to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown.

However, he'll get a very tough test in the Belmont. He's not as well suited to the distance as some of his rivals, and a third race in five weeks, at a third different race track, is a test in it's own right.

He doesn't exactly have an Easy Goer or a Coastal set to oppose him, but he's in for a very challenging test and he'll surely get the best male competition this crop has to offer at the moment...and most of them won't be making their 3rd start in five weeks, at their third different track.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

California Chrome hasn't exactly had to beat anywhere near the level of competition that some other horses have, to get to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown.

However, he'll get a very tough test in the Belmont. He's not as well suited to the distance as some of his rivals, and a third race in five weeks, at a third different race track, is a test in it's own right.

He doesn't exactly have an Easy Goer or a Coastal set to oppose him, but he's in for a very challenging test and he'll surely get the best male competition this crop has to offer at the moment...and most of them won't be making their 3rd start in five weeks, at their third different track.

Now, see, this post just makes me disappointed all over again about the 2004 Belmont.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think hes in trouble..the dist and race riding may get to him late in the belmont..nyra is the real winner here..and lets be honest.we cant have a 10.5k investment win the crown.its bad for racing imo i dont think the owners will live long enough to hoist the trophy ..he looked like he was gonna code out yesterday....

[cal828]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i think hes in trouble..the dist and race riding may get to him late in the belmont..nyra is the real winner here..and lets be honest.we cant have a 10.5k investment win the crown.its bad for racing imo i dont think the owners will live long enough to hoist the trophy ..he looked like he was gonna code out yesterday....

I was thinking the same thing. That Coburn guy got beet red in the face. I thought he was going to have a stroke or a heart attack. Belmont folks may need to have a defibrillator handy.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by cal828

I was thinking the same thing. That Coburn guy got beet red in the face. I thought he was going to have a stroke or a heart attack. Belmont folks may need to have a defibrillator handy.

I think he needs to cut down on race day medications...

But to answer the original question, no....

[cal828]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

I think he needs to cut down on race day medications...

But to answer the original question, no....

No doubt, but if it was me and I had a triple crown on the line, I'd probably need about a half a dozen Wild Turkeys and coke to make it through and pray I could still talk when and if the post race interview comes up.