GP P6 carryover

[tabs]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

I think I understand a little of both sides of the argument and like philcski believe most of the money wagered has almost no realistic chance of cashing.

Successfully parlaying 6 races is extremely rare with large fields and so many un-raced horses. Too many variables in the sequence for a player to be successful without spending much less then $300.00 in my opinion.

Can someone hit it for a dime –yes but you have better odds hitting the lottery.

Unless your handicapping shows that you are successful 90% of the time of including the winner using three horses or more in each race then you are playing a losing game imo.

Players that are investing $50 to $200.00 per ticket are fooling themselves and have almost no chance of hitting 6 of 6 let alone the big prize.

As long as the vast majorities play this wager for fun and small dollars I think it’s possible to make money on this wager.

The argument Doug puts forth is there are much better ways to win at the races.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Phil, I've seen that bet pay less than the parlay when a couple of improbable longshots win.

There was nothing even remotely special about that Santa Anita p5 I posted. The point was that it transformed a sequence of mostly terrible non-competitive betting races with small fields and hopeless toss-outs into an advantageous situation.

The Gulfstream p6 is generally made up of several attractive betting races with large fields, often wide-open races.

The more sensible thing to do is to target the race or two in the sequence where you most have an edge.

Of course that happens, it happens in multi race wagers all the time. If pool size < parlay it is guaranteed to happen. Hell Even the lowest day relative to parlay at SA was "normal" results (2 2-1, 2 4-1, 1 11-1).

The p5 at SA is obviously a good wager with the low takeout, I'm not suggesting otherwise. But we completely disagree what constitutes worthwhile sequences for multi race wagers. I'm looking for difficult sequences where I can possibly hit a separator horse or two. Singling the same horse as everyone else in a mundane sequence doesn't help me.

If you play the pick 6... And have scrutinized every race, who's to say you can't play the races individually as well?

[tector]

And it survives another day.

So we only have to dodge 4 more days. Obviously a goodly amount of money should go in tomorrow, Florida Derby day. And with many tracks not running Easter Sunday, it should take a lot of money then, too.

A carryover into the final day (if it happens) should be over $2 million--unless people hold back the last couple of days to try to crush it closing day, which could increase the odds of a single ticket winner.

Some effed up psychology on this bet....

[tector]

Only 2 days left to dodge. C/O now near $1.8m.

[JSwiss]

Originally Posted by tector

Only 2 days left to dodge. C/O now near $1.8m.

I'm not sure what rhyme or reason they are using to get here but people are throwing around the $8 million number for total pool on Friday if it gets there.

Update:

I think the Rainbow 6 has gotten more popular since it was introduced but I went back and looked in 2011 they had a $1.4m carryover to the final day and the total pool was right around $3.6m - still not sure it can get as high as numbers I've seen this year... and thats with groups like Twinspires who put $100,000 in the players pool and lost 94% of it... Don't see that happening again.

[Clip-Clop]

Just looked in my wallet from this weekend in Vegas and found a 5 of 6 ticket from the Venetian for Saturday. Couldn't find any payoffs for the consolation, does this bet not pay for 5 out of 6? I was hoping to cash on my next trip.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Just looked in my wallet from this weekend in Vegas and found a 5 of 6 ticket from the Venetian for Saturday. Couldn't find any payoffs for the consolation, does this bet not pay for 5 out of 6? I was hoping to cash on my next trip.

I don't think they pay 5 of 6 because with the ten cent increment, im pretty sure it's been hit with multiple tickets every day other than when the jackpot was scooped.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I don't think they pay 5 of 6 because with the ten cent increment, im pretty sure it's been hit with multiple tickets every day other than when the jackpot was scooped.

Probably right, thanks.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Just looked in my wallet from this weekend in Vegas and found a 5 of 6 ticket from the Venetian for Saturday. Couldn't find any payoffs for the consolation, does this bet not pay for 5 out of 6? I was hoping to cash on my next trip.

5/6 only pays when there's 1 or 0 6/6 tickets. The only exception may be closing day.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

5/6 only pays when there's 1 or 0 6/6 tickets. The only exception may be closing day.

I was afraid of that, I just looked up the rules and it says just that, bummer. Seems like a lot of players missed leg 2, including me.

[hi_im_god]

has anyone looked at friday's card yet? it's ugly.

6 full fields with 5 of them having ae's. 4 maiden races.

i don't see a race in there where you could single a horse with confidence. pletcher's horse in the first leg maybe?

i was looking forward to betting this but as i look at the actual fields i think i'll probably limit myself to a smaller ticket versus betting at it seriously. that's a really tough sequence.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

has anyone looked at friday's card yet? it's ugly.

6 full fields with 5 of them having ae's. 4 maiden races.

i don't see a race in there where you could single a horse with confidence. pletcher's horse in the first leg maybe?

i was looking forward to betting this but as i look at the actual fields i think i'll probably limit myself to a smaller ticket versus betting at it seriously. that's a really tough sequence.

Super tough sequence.

I'm actually against the Pletcher off the long layoff, although I'd be an idiot to leave him off the ticket.

Every race is a headscratcher in and of itself.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

has anyone looked at friday's card yet? it's ugly.

6 full fields with 5 of them having ae's. 4 maiden races.

i don't see a race in there where you could single a horse with confidence. pletcher's horse in the first leg maybe?

i was looking forward to betting this but as i look at the actual fields i think i'll probably limit myself to a smaller ticket versus betting at it seriously. that's a really tough sequence.

At first glance, it looked impossible.

[ateamstupid]

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board. Fogozano ran well against a tough field in his debut, so unless Pletcher's horse in the 11th is a rocketship, he could be a realistic single. I also think Nora's Song is clearly the horse to beat in the 13th and the 9th has a small group of logicals. I actually think the toughest race is the $6,250 claimer in the 10th. Plenty of horses with back races that fit and a murky pace scenario.

[lemoncrush]

I looked it over for an hour last night. If it wasn't a 10 cent minimum with a monster pot, I wouldn't even think of tackling it. But, ill throw $40 at it and take my chances. Right now, Third Martini in the 9th and Nora's Song in the 13th are my possible singles.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board.

I'm interested in seeing what the Darley filly is on the board, being a half to Royal Delta she's going to take some $.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board. Fogozano ran well against a tough field in his debut, so unless Pletcher's horse in the 11th is a rocketship, he could be a realistic single. I also think Nora's Song is clearly the horse to beat in the 13th and the 9th has a small group of logicals. I actually think the toughest race is the $6,250 claimer in the 10th. Plenty of horses with back races that fit and a murky pace scenario.

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

[santana]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.

I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.

after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.

If JV hangs around to ride Fogozano...i would probably single him...instead of going to keenland...tough rack of races, but when playing for a dime...thats alot of fun....

[santana]

Originally Posted by santana

If JV hangs around to ride Fogozano...i would probably single him...instead of going to keenland...tough rack of races, but when playing for a dime...thats alot of fun....

As of right now, i have a 150.00 ticket.....using just 3-11 in race 9...just a reach.

[Bogey]

Interesting to see Castellano sticking around for closing day and not at KEE on FRI.