Change of Plans for Lava Man

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Here's Doug prepping Lava Man for the Goodwood

Thats the Big Buckin Chicken!

The Tin Man is a better horse NOW. He has aged like a fine wine. Still tough against the Euros, but he will again dictate some pace and be a player in determining the outcome.

[Danzig]

welll, if it isn't my favorite science teacher....good morning!

i would love to see the tin man win....an older horse in the mold of john henry--only maybe not as nasty! and affirmed would have a bc winner. that would be sweet.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I don't fancy Affirmed's boy in the BC Turf simply because he has always been better at 10f than at 12f. Against genuine 12f types (of which there aren't a lot in the US this year), I'm afraid he'll be exposed as lacking stamina for 12f at the top level.

The Million fit TTM like a glove this year - ideal distance, ideal pace scenario - in my mind, he should have been even money, not the lovely price I got. Astonishing how people get caught up in arguing 'who is the best horse? (in absolute terms)' and forget to look at the likely pace scenario.

The BC Turf is not 12 furlongs this year. Chirchill does not run 1 1/2 mile races. The race will only be 1 3/8 miles this year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Here's Doug prepping Lava Man for the Goodwood

He's not being chicken at all. He's planning on running the horse in the toughest race there is. He's planning on running him in the $5 million BC Classic. If he were chicken, he wouldn't be running him in there. Not only that, they are going to supplement him. If they were chicken in the least bit, they could use the fact that he's not nominated to the BC as an excuse not to run him.

The next race is only a prep race. The race is irrelevant compared to the Classic. The purse of the Goodwood is $400,000. The $5 million race is just a tiny bit more important than a $400,000 race. The purpose of the prep race for Lava Man is to prepare him for the Classic. O'Neil is going to choose the prep that gives LM the best chance to win the Classic. He obviously doen't want to have a really tough prep race. Even if he knew for sure that he would beat TheTin Man, he still would not want to run against him because you don't want your horse to have to fully exert himself in he prep race. LM has already had a hard campaign this year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Since when does Churchill not run 1 1/2? The past BC Turfs there have all been 1 1/2.

You're right. It's only the Filly and Mare Turf that will be run at a different distance. The Churchill layout cannot run a 1 1/4 mile race on the grass, so the Filly and Mare Turf will be 1 3/8 miles.

Someone had told me that the BC Turf would also be run at 1 3/8 miles. That information is wrong.

By the way, The Tin Man has won at 12 furlongs.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

He's not being chicken at all. He's planning on running the horse in the toughest race there is. He's planning on running him in the $5 million BC Classic. If he were chicken, he wouldn't be running him in there. Not only that, they are going to supplement him. If they were chicken in the least bit, they could use the fact that he's not nominated to the BC as an excuse not to run him.

The next race is only a prep race. The race is irrelevant compared to the Classic. The purse of the Goodwood is $400,000. The $5 million race is just a tiny bit more important than a $400,000 race. The purpose of the prep race for Lava Man is to prepare him for the Classic. O'Neil is going to choose the prep that gives LM the best chance to win the Classic. He obviously doen't want to have a really tough prep race. Even if he knew for sure that he would beat TheTin Man, he still would not want to run against him because you don't want your horse to have to fully exert himself in he prep race. LM has already had a hard campaign this year.

Why didn't they supplement him earlier in the year when it was cheaper, with that new rule that was instated? or did the supplement him already?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

Why didn't they supplement him earlier in the year when it was cheaper, with that new rule that was instated? or did the supplement him already?

With the new rule, I don't think the price is any cheaper earlier in the year. As far as I know, it's a one-time fee of $150,000 and that makes the horse eligible for life. With Lava Man, I don't know whether they paid the money yet or not.

[Scav]

well if that is the case, they will probably do it last minute to make sure he didn't get hurt, that is the only logical reason

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

well if that is the case, they will probably do it last minute to make sure he didn't get hurt, that is the only logical reason

Yes, exactly.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

By the way, The Tin Man has won at 12 furlongs.

I know he has, but his best form have been at 10f, IMHO. A good horse can beat lesser types over a trip different from its best, eg. Bold Forbes in the Belmont, I just feel (fear?) The Tin Man can't beat first class 12f horses. I love the horse but am aware of his limitations.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

this is being discussed in another thread,
but clearly I was referring to 2002 when he was in better form.
set slow fractions and lost to a somewhat weak BCT field.
he has no chance this year, but please, bet as much as you possibly can on him.

Repent

[Danzig]

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Honu

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

lol,
yeah that sounds about right.

and as much of a chance as Karens Caper has in the BCFMT.


Repent

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

Honu is not a dude. Honu is a girl. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/4 miles, not 8.5 furlongs.

I am mistaken. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/8 miles.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by repent

if you reallly believe that...

Repent

You are a funny basta*d, and I think Rupert would know if I were a boy or a girl because we have met. Purses may be inflated but so are the owners wallets with what the horse has earned this year.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Honu

You are a funny basta*d, and I think Rupert would know if I were a boy or a girl because we have met. Purses may be inflated but so are the owners wallets with what the horse has earned this year.

Repent, remind me what you think of Smarty Jones. (so folks can judge for themselves your knowledge of horse talent.)

--Dunbar

[repent]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Repent, remind me what you think of Smarty Jones. (so folks can judge for themselves your knowledge of horse talent.)

--Dunbar

he sucked.

now go f*ck yourself.


Repent

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by repent

he sucked.

now go f*ck yourself.


Repent

You seem a little sensitive about the Smarty Jones subject. However, you seldom miss an opportunity to trash him. IMO, it puts your views on The Tin Man in perspective.

--Dunbar