Early Breeders' Cup Projections... - Page 2

#21 09-19-2006, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If it's the wrong distance it doesn't matter who she is facing. I can't believe you actually think Gorella rates to be even close to as good at 1 3/8 as she is at 1 1/8 miles. There is a WORLD of difference IMO.

Ad Valorum won one of Europe's big mile Group 1 races recently. Sorry if I'm not shaking in my boots about the milers coming from there. Look, I'm the first to just say " I'll take the Euros " for this race, but I don't think this year's contingent is looking very strong.

Everybody who understands racing from accross the pond knows that Ad Valorem is second or third tier...he is hardly of concern...

And, how come everybody can come on here with confidence and say that they KNOW Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 miles...the last time I checked, she hadn't raced at that distance ever....that is just your perception, but the truth is that she has been just as impressive and accomplished going the furthest she's gone as she has going a mile...you might want to review her PPs again....

Everybody also thought that Intercontinental was a miler last year - including her trainer - and yet she romped in the F&M Turf...

kentuckyrosesinmay · #22 09-19-2006, 11:05 AM

Early Predictions

Juvenile Fillies...Allude

Juvenile...Circular Quay

Mile...Gorella

Filly and Mare Turf...Ouija Board

Distaff...Happy Ticket

Sprint...Discreet Cat

Turf...Shirocco

Classic...Bernardini

These selections are full of chalk. It's a good thing that I will probably change my mind 500 times before BC day gets here. I like price horses, not chalk , but I also like to win my bets

, and right now, this is where I stand.

Hwjb · #23 09-19-2006, 11:22 AM

RATINGS:
Ouija Board 125
Alexandrova 123+
Gorella 122

I feel that the BCFMT is the race where the Euros are strongest.

Ouija Board has been campaigned with greater regularity than in previous seasons, but runs with credit race in race out. The 11f trip will prove ideal, she is amenable as regards her positioning through a race, and is a certainty to finish in the first 3: I'd put my life on that!

Alexandrova could scarcely have been more impressive in winning the Epsom/Irish/Yorkshire Oaks, seemingly well within herself. She relaxes well during her races and has a lethal turn of foot. She is a league apart amongst 3yo fillies (and the 3 4yos she faced at York).

Gorella switches off so well during her races that I imagine that she probably will prove effective over 11f, and her ability to quicken so well make her a formidable opponent in any company. However with even the slightest doubt over stamina the two fillies listed above will take advantage. I get the impression the Mile is shaping up into the less competitive race, and that may be the one they should aim for.

blackthroatedwind · #24 09-19-2006, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Everybody who understands racing from accross the pond knows that Ad Valorem is second or third tier...he is hardly of concern...

And, how come everybody can come on here with confidence and say that they KNOW Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 miles...the last time I checked, she hadn't raced at that distance ever....that is just your perception, but the truth is that she has been just as impressive and accomplished going the furthest she's gone as she has going a mile...you might want to review her PPs again....

Everybody also thought that Intercontinental was a miler last year - including her trainer - and yet she romped in the F&M Turf...

Yes, Joel, everyone knows Ad Valorem is second or third tier, thus his winning one of Europes biggest Group 1s at a mile does not speak well of their contingency this year. I understand the horses you mentioned may not have been in that race but I still consider it a bad sign.

I haven't noticed anyone saying they " know " Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 as she would be going shorter. However, in my extensive experience with horse racing I would say many more horses with explosive bursts like Gorella will NOT sustain that move as they stretch out severly. Certainly it is possible just not likely.

As for Intercontinental, while I certainly gave her no shot last year, and in my case it was because I was never enamored with her as a horse more than a feeling about the distance, but as I pointed out before she wired the field and for that reason I am not sure her win can be considered a true measure of the overall talents of the field. Somehow I don't believe Gorella will be in a position to go wire to wire. I'm sure you won't argue that if a horse is to successfully negotiate a distance that is overall to far for him or her that victory is very likely to occur on the front end.

Pointg5 · #25 09-19-2006, 11:30 AM

Perfect Sting...

tiznowthegreat · #26 09-19-2006, 11:38 AM

Juv Fillies - Cotton Blossom
Juv - Principle Secret
Mile - Libberitist
F and M Turf - Alexandrova
Sprint - War Front
Distaff - Fleet Indian
Turf - Cacique
Classic - Invasor

#27 09-19-2006, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yes, Joel, everyone knows Ad Valorem is second or third tier, thus his winning one of Europes biggest Group 1s at a mile does not speak well of their contingency this year. I understand the horses you mentioned may not have been in that race but I still consider it a bad sign.

I haven't noticed anyone saying they " know " Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 as she would be going shorter. However, in my extensive experience with horse racing I would say many more horses with explosive bursts like Gorella will NOT sustain that move as they stretch out severly. Certainly it is possible just not likely.

As for Intercontinental, while I certainly gave her no shot last year, and in my case it was because I was never enamored with her as a horse more than a feeling about the distance, but as I pointed out before she wired the field and for that reason I am not sure her win can be considered a true measure of the overall talents of the field. Somehow I don't believe Gorella will be in a position to go wire to wire. I'm sure you won't argue that if a horse is to successfully negotiate a distance that is overall to far for him or her that victory is very likely to occur on the front end.

Do you consider 1 3/8 miles "severely" longer than 1 3/16...it is only 3/16 of a mile longer...just like 1 3/16 miles is only 3/16 longer than a mile and she crushed a pretty solid Film Maker with ease at that trip and never needed her best to win comfortably....I just do not see it as a 'severe' increase in distance that she cannot handle...Whose to say that she isn't better going that far?..Seriously?..Who can justify that thought?

You are speculating that she will be at her best around one mile, and I am speculating that the extra 3/16 will not be a factor, especially if she can against her own sex.....it is all speculation....

...we'll see what happens....I'll tell you this, Lady of Venice should not factor in the decision because she has NO prayer in any BC race.....I liked her a lot but she has been very disappointing....

blackthroatedwind · #28 09-19-2006, 11:58 AM

Joel, seriously, I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. That doesn't make me right but I would say we have a basic difference of opinion about the game.

Cajungator26 · #29 09-19-2006, 12:02 PM

Unfortunately, we'll never know how Gorella will do at 1 3/8 if she doesn't run it. As for her running against horses like Aragorn... I'm sorry, but I just don't think she has a chance. I'd cheer her on if she was proving me wrong though.

#30 09-19-2006, 12:12 PM

Juv Fillies - Point Ashley
Juv - Principle Secret
Mile - Gorella if she goes
F and M Turf - Ouija Board if she goes
Sprint - Henny Hughes
Distaff - Baletto
Turf - Hurrican Run
Classic - Sun King

SniperSB23 · #31 09-19-2006, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Do you consider 1 3/8 miles "severely" longer than 1 3/16...it is only 3/16 of a mile longer...just like 1 3/16 miles is only 3/16 longer than a mile and she crushed a pretty solid Film Maker with ease at that trip and never needed her best to win comfortably....I just do not see it as a 'severe' increase in distance that she cannot handle...Whose to say that she isn't better going that far?..Seriously?..Who can justify that thought?

You are speculating that she will be at her best around one mile, and I am speculating that the extra 3/16 will not be a factor, especially if she can against her own sex.....it is all speculation....

...we'll see what happens....I'll tell you this, Lady of Venice should not factor in the decision because she has NO prayer in any BC race.....I liked her a lot but she has been very disappointing....

How does that make sense? So Silver Train won the BC Sprint at 6 furlongs and then went and won the Met Mile at 8 furlongs. By your logic if those two extra furlongs weren't an issue then he should have no problem adding two more furlongs and going a mile and a quarter.

It is pretty easy to justify that she is best at a mile since that is where her trainer, who knows way more about her than any of us, thinks she is best.

Buffymommy · #32 09-19-2006, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Unfortunately, we'll never know how Gorella will do at 1 3/8 if she doesn't run it. As for her running against horses like Aragorn... I'm sorry, but I just don't think she has a chance. I'd cheer her on if she was proving me wrong though.

Honestly, Gorella can win either race she enters. I don't think the distance is going to matter. Put that closing kick up against any horse and I think she comes out the victor. If she is in a longer race, jock will just wait a little longer to unleash the beast.

If she goes in the mile, we will just see it earlier.

Buffymommy · #33 09-19-2006, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Classic - Sun King

I like him too. I really think that this year he is beginning to figure this racing thing out. He has been improving in every race. He will be in my tris because he tries hard everytime. IMO, he will be in one of the top three spots at the finish line.

Cajungator26 · #34 09-19-2006, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

I like him too. I really think that this year he is beginning to figure this racing thing out. He has been improving in every race. He will be in my tris because he tries hard everytime. IMO, he will be in one of the top three spots at the finish line.

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic.

Buffymommy · #35 09-19-2006, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic.

Yeah. Now after Gorella wins her race (whichever she goes in) I will be a happy camper. But then when I cash a nice one on my Drifty/Sun King/Bernardini tri, I will be ecstatic!

#36 09-19-2006, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Joel, seriously, I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. That doesn't make me right but I would say we have a basic difference of opinion about the game.

we'll agree to disagree then...and we'll see what happens....

Cajungator26 · #37 09-19-2006, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Yeah. Now after Gorella wins her race (whichever she goes in) I will be a happy camper. But then when I cash a nice one on my Drifty/Sun King/Bernardini tri, I will be ecstatic!

Hilarious, Buffy. I'm going to make a guess that Bernardini doesn't hit the board at all. I say 4th or 5th...

Here is my prediction:

Perfect Drift
Invasor
Lava Man
Sun King
Bernardini

HAHA

kentuckyrosesinmay · #38 09-19-2006, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic.

I think that this horse will hit the board in the Classic. Depending on how he runs in his next start, I may even put him on top in a few exotic bets...We'll see.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #39 09-19-2006, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Honestly, Gorella can win either race she enters. I don't think the distance is going to matter. Put that closing kick up against any horse and I think she comes out the victor. If she is in a longer race, jock will just wait a little longer to unleash the beast.

If she goes in the mile, we will just see it earlier.

I would personally like to see her in the mile again because she was so close last year (3rd; lost by a length), and she didn't have the best of trips. Love this mare. With that being said, Aragorn sure is nice too.

Buffymommy · #40 09-19-2006, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hilarious, Buffy. I'm going to make a guess that Bernardini doesn't hit the board at all. I say 4th or 5th...

Here is my prediction:

Perfect Drift
Invasor
Lava Man
Sun King
Bernardini

HAHA

OHHH Lava Man MAY get my third place in the tri too. I say Sun King above Invasor though. I like Bernardini. He has won his races very easily, but there is just something that keeps me from falling head over heels for this horse. OH yeah, Barbaro. A wall comes up because of Bernardini's win in the Preakness. I think of that day as a dark one and I can't get past it. I think if Bernardini had not run in the Preakness I may be more on his bandwagon. Call me crazy...