What if Invasor and Bernardini split?

Originally Posted by boswd

There are defintly alot of what if's. Now having said that The JCGC could could decide HOY if Bern. or Invasor win that race and none of the Big 3 win the BCC classic. No matter what happens in their final race before the BCC if either Lava Man or Invasor wins the Classic they are HOY. If Bernardini wins the JCGC he has sewn up the 3 yrold HOY. Now the big question is, if Inavasor wins the JCGC and Bernardini wins the Classic has Invasor done enough to win HOY. Is winning the Pim Special, Suburban, The Whitney and JCGC a better year than the Preakness, Jim Dandy, The Travers and The Classic. Hmmm. Now if Lava Man wins the Classic than that debate is over he is HOY.
Now even a bigger questin looms what if all three lose their final preps plus don't win the Classic. Who is then HOY?

I think you would prob go by who finished the best in their last two races (prep and classic).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I just checked again, and the futures are up now:

Bernadini 12 to 5
Invasor 13 to 2
Lava Man 13 to 2
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 40 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 40 to 1
Jazil 20 to 1
Bright One 20 to 1
lawyer Ron 20 to 1
Sun King 25 to 1
Perfect Drift 40 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 50 to 1
Premium Tap 30 to 1
Second of June 40 to 1
Cindago 25 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas and Shirroco must have been added this morning.

If anyone thinks the winner MUST come from LM, Bernardini, or Invasor, he or she can get almost 4-5 by taking all 3 in futures in this ratio:

If you bet $Y on Lava Man, then bet $Y on Invasor and 2.2 x $Y on Bernardini.

However, for that to be a good bet, the chance that one of those 3 wins the BCC would have to be 56% or more. The reality is, at this point there is probably LESS than a 56% chance that one of the "Big 3" will win the BC Classic. If you strongly disagree with that statement, then you should be loading up on the 3 futures above.

--Dunbar

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

[smuthg]

What is the latest on Sweetnorthernsaint? I saw him at 30-1 to win the BC Classic a few weeks ago; is he out? Still think he got checked in the stretch of the Preakness (not that it would have made a difference)...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

Well, applying my 30% sidelined estimate, 13-2 today is roughly the same as 9-2 on BC day. If Invasor beats Bernardini in the JCGC, that 9-2 would look great. If he gets trounced by Bernardini in the JCGC, the 9-2 won't look so hot. Similar thoughts about Lava Man's final prep.

As a general rule, futures have to be approached with a good deal of caution and skepticism. For example, the list above equates to a 27.6% track take! And it's worse than that because the winner of the BCC might not even be on that list of horses.

That's not to say certain individual horses in that list could not provide value.

Unless I saw a number that I absolutely loved, I would wait until Pinnacle and/or TheGreek put up their futures.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by smuthg

What is the latest on Sweetnorthernsaint? I saw him at 30-1 to win the BC Classic a few weeks ago; is he out? Still think he got checked in the stretch of the Preakness (not that it would have made a difference)...

just resumed training....i wouldn't look for him at churchill, discreet cat either.

and i'm not sure why so many think it's between invasor and bernardini, with lava man sitting alone at the top of the polls. one of them will come out of the jcgc a loser, pretty much guaranteeing no shot at hoy--not if one of the other two wins the bcc! if one of the two wins both, he's hoy. if all three fail in the bcc...well, now, it'll get mighty interesting!!!

[ateamstupid]

It's so great to have a math geek like Dunbar around.. Makes things so much smoother.

[boswd]

Originally Posted by Danzig2

and i'm not sure why so many think it's between invasor and bernardini, with lava man sitting alone at the top of the polls. one of them will come out of the jcgc a loser, pretty much guaranteeing no shot at hoy--not if one of the other two wins the bcc! if one of the two wins both, he's hoy. if all three fail in the bcc...well, now, it'll get mighty interesting!!!

Actually Both Bernardini and Invasor are ranked higher.
http://www.ntra.com/bc_wtc_ranking.aspx

The Classic Division is leaving me with more questions than answers. I would hope some more American horses get their names posted in top ten polls some time soon. I am hoping that Good Reward, Perfect Drift, and Suave show up soon. Lawyer Ron could show up soon, as well.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

The Classic Division is leaving me with more questions than answers. I would hope some more American horses get their names posted in top ten polls some time soon. I am hoping that Good Reward, Perfect Drift, and Suave show up soon. Lawyer Ron could show up soon, as well.

Suave did have a rough trip in the Woodward but I think we are much better off if he isn't in the ten best we have to offer.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

12-5 last I looked yesterday (at BetGameday.com and VIPsports.com). And if Pinnacle or TheGreek get their futures up before the JCGC, I expect slightly higher to be offered.

--Dunbar

7-2 at let it ride

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I like those odds on Sun King. This horse has been knocking on the door all year long. One more jump in the Woodward and he would have had Invasor beat. I really, really like this horse. He just may be my classic horse if something happens to Bernardini or Bernardini flops in his next race (that probably won't happen).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by boswd

Actually Both Bernardini and Invasor are ranked higher.
http://www.ntra.com/bc_wtc_ranking.aspx

well, funny, this is from ntra as well:



NTRAU



Week 27 of the 2006 NTRA Thoroughbred Poll conducted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), covering racing performances through September 10. Current Horse of the Year ranking of the top Thoroughbreds as voted by horseracing media representatives on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis with first-place votes in parentheses, 2006 record and total points. A-S: Age-Sex, Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, H-horse, F-filly, M-mare.
HORSE AGE-SEX RECORD POINTS PVS PROBABLE NEXT
1. Lava Man (11) 5-G 6-6-0-0 154 1 9/30 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship
2. Bernardini (4) 3-C 6-5-0-0 146 2 10/7 Jockey Club Gold Cup
3. Invasor (1) 4-C 4-3-0-0 127 3 10/7 Jockey Club Gold Cup
4. Silver Train 4-C 4-2-1-0 71 4 10/7 Vosburgh Stakes
5. Aragorn 4-C 5-3-2-0 61 5 10/7 Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile
6. Gorella 4-F 4-3-0-0 50 6 10/14 First Lady Stakes
7. Barbaro 3-C 5-4-0-0 43 9 Retired
8. Henny Hughes 3-C 2-2-0-0 35 7 10/7 Vosburgh Stakes
9. The Tin Man 8-G 4-3-1-0 33 8 9/30 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship
10. Fleet Indian 5-M 5-5-0-0 32 - Undecided

[Gander]

Whats really amazing to me is Flower Alley is still offered as a bet and is only 40/1. He should be minmum 100/1 and even that is too low. Am I the only one who saw his last 2 races?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gander

Whats really amazing to me is Flower Alley is still offered as a bet and is only 40/1. He should be minmum 100/1 and even that is too low. Am I the only one who saw his last 2 races?

lol
no, others saw. but many are still in denial.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's so great to have a math geek like Dunbar around.. Makes things so much smoother.

er, uh, thanks, Ateam. I think.

;>)
--Dunbar

[Revolution]

i cant see lava man or invasor being competitive with bernardini. unless david junior or shirocco can run on the dirt, the breeders cup classic is likely to be an easy win for bernardini. i do not think we have seen his best.

[boswd]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

well, funny, this is from ntra as well:



NTRAU



Week 27 of the 2006 NTRA Thoroughbred Poll conducted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), covering racing performances through September 10. Current Horse of the Year ranking of the top Thoroughbreds as voted by horseracing media representatives on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis with first-place votes in parentheses, 2006 record and total points. A-S: Age-Sex, Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, H-horse, F-filly, M-mare.
HORSE AGE-SEX RECORD POINTS PVS PROBABLE NEXT
1. Lava Man (11) 5-G 6-6-0-0 154 1 9/30 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship
2. Bernardini (4) 3-C 6-5-0-0 146 2 10/7 Jockey Club Gold Cup
3. Invasor (1) 4-C 4-3-0-0 127 3 10/7 Jockey Club Gold Cup
4. Silver Train 4-C 4-2-1-0 71 4 10/7 Vosburgh Stakes
5. Aragorn 4-C 5-3-2-0 61 5 10/7 Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile
6. Gorella 4-F 4-3-0-0 50 6 10/14 First Lady Stakes
7. Barbaro 3-C 5-4-0-0 43 9 Retired
8. Henny Hughes 3-C 2-2-0-0 35 7 10/7 Vosburgh Stakes
9. The Tin Man 8-G 4-3-1-0 33 8 9/30 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship
10. Fleet Indian 5-M 5-5-0-0 32 - Undecided

I know it is very bizarre they have three rankings one for money, one that includes every division and one for the Classic division. Now how can Lava Man be number one inthe one for everybody, the one you just posted but be number 3 in the Classic divison.

[Gander]

i do not think we have seen his best.

Referring to Bernardini, I completely agree. How scary is that? He could become the Roger Federer of horse racing. This horse is the one preventing me from making a huge bet on Lava Man in the Classic. I think its Bernardini and then everyone else. The fact that people think Invasor and the Sun King are going to give him any kind of sweat in the Jockey Club cracks me up.

[boswd]

I agree with you about Bernardini but there is always that one horse that pulls the upset. I really like Sun King I think he is going to love the 1 1/4 he came charging his last two races.