Let's Make Things Interesting (A Proposal)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Revolution

this is a pretty ridiculous thread. why would anyone lay $1500 to win $1000. the only horse that would make sense to wager on is bernardini. lava man and invasor are not going to beat him. give me bernardini, david junior, and electrocutionist and I will lay the $1000 to your $1000.

Randall would have a GREAT bet in this case. Randall could turn around and get Bernardine at 12-5, David Junior at 12-1, and Electrocutionist at 25-1, all at BetGameday.com (also at VIPSports.com). Randall would be GETTING about 3-2, while he'd be GIVING 1-1. You'd be getting the worst of it by far, Revolution.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Dun, I did some numbers in my head and 3/2 is what I came up with. But run the math and see what you think. Also consider that not everyone on here is that comfortable sending money offshore.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dun, I did some numbers in my head and 3/2 is what I came up with. But run the math and see what you think. Also consider that not everyone on here is that comfortable sending money offshore.

Randall, I didn't mean to suggest you were purposely offering a bad bet to people. When I first looked at your offer, I couldn't immediately say either way whether it was attractive or not. It was only when I saw that Gameday had those futures up that I could see it wasn't "generous". In fact, your offer IS better than what one would get by betting at World Sports Exchange's futures. (wsex.com)

Here's how someone betting at Gameday (or its sister, VIPsports.com) could do better than your offer.

Bet $660 on Bernardini at 12-5. You collect $2244 if Bernardini wins.
Bet $300 on Invasor at 13-2. You collect $2250 if Invasor wins.
Bet $280 on Lava Man at 7-1. You collect $2240 if Invasor wins.

The total bet is $1240. The profit will be between $1000 and $1010, depending on which horse wins.

So, it would be risking $1240 to win $1000+. That's way better than putting up $1500 to win $1000.

--Dunbar

PS. Your point about some people not wanting to bet offshore is valid. And I am no fan of Gameday, despite their "A" rating at SportsbookReview.com.

PPS. Accept Revolution's offer as fast as you can!

[randallscott35]

Dun,

I don't know Revolution, doubtful I'd do anything with him, plus he seems to be offering even money on a grand and I'm not going for that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dun,

I don't know Revolution, doubtful I'd do anything with him, plus he seems to be offering even money on a grand and I'm not going for that.

If I knew him/her, I'd gladly take the even money offer. As I said, I could turn around and GET 3-2 on the same 3 horses offshore.

Let's say I spread $1000 on Bernardini, David Junior and Electrocutionist at Gameday. If one of them wins, I'd win $1500. I'd pay Revolution the $1000 and still have a $500 net profit. If some other horse wins, I collect $1000 from Revolution and lose $1000 at Gameday, breaking even. So, I'd either make $500 or break even. That's the kind of bet I like.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If I knew him/her, I'd gladly take the even money offer. As I said, I could turn around and GET 3-2 on the same 3 horses offshore.

Let's say I spread $1000 on Bernardini, David Junior and Electrocutionist at Gameday. If one of them wins, I'd win $1500. I'd pay Revolution the $1000 and still have a $500 net profit. If some other horse wins, I collect $1000 from Revolution and lose $1000 at Gameday, breaking even. So, I'd either make $500 or break even. That's the kind of bet I like.

--Dunbar

Again, Dun, I'm at the whim of someone on a message board without a rep on here sending money to Steve. So what happens when you go and place those bets offshore right now and the guy renegs on the offer. You are holding the bag

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If I knew him/her, I'd gladly take the even money offer. As I said, I could turn around and GET 3-2 on the same 3 horses offshore.

Let's say I spread $1000 on Bernardini, David Junior and Electrocutionist at Gameday. If one of them wins, I'd win $1500. I'd pay Revolution the $1000 and still have a $500 net profit. If some other horse wins, I collect $1000 from Revolution and lose $1000 at Gameday, breaking even. So, I'd either make $500 or break even. That's the kind of bet I like.

It's not quite as good as I said, Randall. I could get $1440 for my $1000, not $1500. Here's how:

Bet $718 on Bernardini at 12-5
Bet $188 on David Junior at 12-1
Bet $94 on Electrocutionist at 25-1

Total bet is $1000. No matter which horse of the 3 wins, I profit between $1441 and $1444. So if I combine that with the 1-1 bet with Revolution, I'd either win $441+ or I'd break even.

I agree with you completely about only making bets with people you are comfortable with. I'm not really advocating you should take the bet vs a stranger. I also doubt that Steve is willing to be the middle man in such a bet. But if he were, you could wait until Rev's money was in Steve's hands. You do not have much exposure in not grabbing the offshore odds right away. In fact, when Pinnacle and TheGreek put up odds, I'd expect them to beat Gameday's odds on 2 of the 3 horses.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Randall, I didn't mean to suggest you were purposely offering a bad bet to people. When I first looked at your offer, I couldn't immediately say either way whether it was attractive or not. It was only when I saw that Gameday had those futures up that I could see it wasn't "generous". In fact, your offer IS better than what one would get by betting at World Sports Exchange's futures. (wsex.com)

Here's how someone betting at Gameday (or its sister, VIPsports.com) could do better than your offer.

Bet $660 on Bernardini at 12-5. You collect $2244 if Bernardini wins.
Bet $300 on Invasor at 13-2. You collect $2250 if Invasor wins.
Bet $280 on Lava Man at 7-1. You collect $2240 if Invasor wins.

The total bet is $1240. The profit will be between $1000 and $1010, depending on which horse wins.

So, it would be risking $1240 to win $1000+. That's way better than putting up $1500 to win $1000.

--Dunbar

PS. Your point about some people not wanting to bet offshore is valid. And I am no fan of Gameday, despite their "A" rating at SportsbookReview.com.

PPS. Accept Revolution's offer as fast as you can!

Didn't break down the math like Dunbar - but you are right....nice job Dun!

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Didn't break down the math like Dunbar - but you are right....nice job Dun!

I was curious to see what Dunbar would have to say about this, Rupe says he's the goods and I believe him...

[Dunbar]

Thanks for the kind words, CR and Pointg.

--Dunbar

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Ok here goes. We need to liven things up a bit so I have a proposal.

I will put up a grand that says the one of the following horses will not win the Breeders Cup Classic. Bernardini- the top 3 year old, Invasor- the top older horse, and Lava Man- the top West Coast horse.(The bet would start now) Bernardini could be even money or less by himself in the BCC. You need to give me 3/2(which is a freaking gift but I'll do it anyway.) So 1500 from your end, a grand from me. I'm sure I'll get more than one taker here so I'll sort through and make sure I'm not betting against a degenerate who can't afford to lose it. (1 person in the end)

The money will be held by Steve (if he's cool with that) until the Breeders Cup.

Clearly, 1 of these horses will not win the BCC. Almost certainly, 2 of them will not win it (barring a deadheat). But one of them will win it. Most likely 'dini.....

I'll bet everything I own against a 3 horse deadheat!!!

[randallscott35]

The offer has been pulled.... Randall

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The offer has been pulled.... Randall

why? did you like Electrocutionist?
I'd go 150-100
you could make 10 like that
be the same bet
1500 is hard to come up with
I'd have to liquidate

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by BellamyRd.

why? did you like Electrocutionist?
I'd go 150-100
you could make 10 like that
be the same bet
1500 is hard to come up with
I'd have to liquidate

Coach, long story short, I was asked to pull it, so I did.

[randallscott35]

Should've done it. You would have grand off me. They run 1-2. Ha ha.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Lol, if I'd have had a grand...

shucks, I was gonna do it until you pulled the bet
at Steve's bequest (so I figure I better go take it
out of his ass at Carolina BBQ) LOL
I'll make the same proposition for 2007 on the same 3!