3/12: Gulfstream (7-11); Tampa Bay (9-12); Oaklawn (7-10); Santa Anita (5-10)

[Kasept]

Was inexcusably sloppy putting Friday plays together before 12p showtime, costing every chance to cash significantly in the highly bettable Santa Anita carryover sequence. P6 paid supremely nice $100k to three winners, and the review of the skein that Rick Hammerle and I undertook on ATR pointed you in the right direction in every leg. For my tickey, omission of Puype -- twice -- was the difference between something good, something special and the nothing received. Firster Shezabigbroad was bet like she couldn't lose in the 5th, and then ran like it, and though I used her in the P4 going three wide, I went just 2 deep on the sextet and felt foolish watching her romp home at even money. Perennial hanger Stoneside came through as advertised on the stretchout in the 6th, and El Martillo was indeed the right other horse with Uh Oh Bango in the feature. But the nightcap cost the conso ($600+) and the P4 as one of the very possible winners, Puype's Line One, hit us like a sucker punch. Did catch a couple P3's and broke even on the FG P4 earlier in the afternoon, but the day felt like a gigantic opportunity missed. Hope you did OK. There's countless spots this Saturday to make a pile! Should be a very good raceday...


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Deep and potentially productive MSW to start the P5, with several notable pedigrees involved. Albertrani FTS #7 Bayamo is yet another Bernardini, this one out of Known Fact mare Banshee Winds which makes him a half brother of the wonderful Banshee Breeze. Smilin' Phil Serpe brings Police Chatter back for a first time 3yo/second career start, 8 months after this brother of Tout Charmant and Forest Grove found Boys at Toscanova in his 5f debut at Belmont. 5-2 favorite Ninja Blade, a Windmill Manor homebred half brother of stake stalwart My Jen, has managed to run into Dialed In, Travelin Man and Arch Traveler in his three career tries..

Most Likely: #3 Ninja Blade 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Police Chatter 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Redeemed 6-1 WON ($14.80)
Super Add: #6 Ripples n' Waves 10-1 5th


8th: 1st Timely Writer, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Certainly no drama involved with 3yo season debut of juvy Champion Uncle Mo, as Team Todd choose to utilize one turm mile as first step toward Louisville. Anything less than an authoritative, geared down romp will likely be viewed askance..

Most Likely: #1 Uncle Mo 3-5 WON ($2.10)
Best Value: #6 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Rocking Out 4-1 4th


9th: 25th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Solid, well matched set of sophs for this. Pluck will SCR for the 1m spot at TAM today (7th)..

Most Likely: #5 Queen'splatekitten 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Newsdad 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Master Dunker 6-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Rafe 15-1 8th


10th: 67th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

This is an exceptionally good group and flies in the face of the braying naysayers and nattering nabobs that yearn for the alleged good ol' days when there were 14 Champions lined up in every handicap division race ever run..

Best Value: #4 Duke of Mischief 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Rule 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Soaring Empire 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Jackson Bend 8-1 5th


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Green's Hard Ten 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Miss Kitten 5-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Zeffee 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Fly Bye Wildcat 8-1 6th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 3-9-12
8: 1
9: 5-6-9
10: 1-4-5-6-7
11: 2-3

3x1x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1
9: 2-4-5-6-7-9
10: 1-3-4-5-6-7
11: 2-3-5-8

1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



TAMPA BAY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


9th: 13th Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Cherokee Queen 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Zagora 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Keertana 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Askbut I Won'ttell 4-1 5th


10th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P3, DD, Super)

Three fillies involved here are on the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager -- Miss Smarty Pants (50-1), Royal Delta (20-1, Wyomia (50-1) -- and above and beyond them, missies like Niji's Grand Girl, Third Chance, Her Smile and Devilish Lady have run races that make them competitive in this spot. Trickier-than-it-looks event..

Most Likely: #8 Royal Delta 7-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Wyomia 8-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #1 Miss Smarty Pants 4-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Blue Eyed Sweetie 12-1 8th


11th: 31st Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Thanks in part to the self-important machinations over Uncle Mo's 3yo debut, we are left with a less than vintage edition of this race which has seen a surge in its' importance over the past several years. Bretheren comes back off his Sam Davis score, and if the Super Saver sib exhibits the same '2nd off the break' prowess Pletcher sophs have flashed in recent winters, he should dust this cast of empty resume Derby Trail auditioning types..

Most Likely: #10 Bretheren 1-1: Outside draw a non-issue; His to lose.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Free Entry 7-2: Solid as 3yo; Tries two turns.. 6th
Best Value: #3 Beamer 10-1: Still owns upside; Ran sneaky 4th in Davis.. 4th
Super Add: #5 Too Experience 8-1: Just one bad race in career; Took to TAM.. 7th


12th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Would love to come up with something clever here, but just think you have to play it straight with the obvious players..

Most Likely: #4 Marcello 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 On Joline 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Al Nasr Dream 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #7 Stanley G. 8-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Dr Rico 6-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 3-5-7-8-9
10: 1-4-5-8
11: 10
12: 4-5-7-8-9

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 24th Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, Super)

Similarly to the Suncoast at TAM, five of these 9 are in the "KOFW". As good a race as the San Felipe is for the Derby boys, this filly prep event is the day's top test for lily seekers, and has any number of story lines..

Most Likely: #3 Joyful Victory 4-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Holy Heavens 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Rigoletta 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Dixie City 7-2 3rd


8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Shertzer 9-2 5th
Next Best: #9 Zoebear 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Duca 5-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Admiral Rocket 6-1 3rd


9th:52nd Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 It Happened Again 5-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #2 Win Willy 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Winslow Homer 9-5 6th
Super Add: #6 Thiskyhasnolimit 5-1 2nd


10th CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super):

Most Likely: #2 Dirty Cerday 9-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #10 Moneyonthegrass 6-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Muhaaseb 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Garcia's Letter 12-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 1-5-9
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-3-10-12

2x3x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (3/7/9-1-5-2) Paid $274.20



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


Another fun card at Santa Anita, which as Rick Hammerle has noted in recent weeks, has found its' stride in the second half of the stand. As discussed above, the Friday carryover sequence was challenging and rewarding for those that got through it, and today's sextet, in addition to the two stakes, is just as strong and harrowing..


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Beyond those that have been out on track already, a few well-bred firsters to seriously consider including #8 Just Meteor (Mandella, 9-2), #7 Dancing Joy (Powell, 6-1) and Kirkorian/Shirreffs' son of the great Starrer (#3 Guest Star)..

Most Likely: #10 Photo Shopped 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 First Blue Angel 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Cloud Man 8-1 WON ($29.00)
Super Add: #9 Eric the Ram 5-1 5th


6th: 74th Santa Margarita H. (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Looks once again like Always a Princess will try to parlay pace and form edge into third straight stake score. Even money Switch has proven versatile though, and her sprinter's gear will come in handy if Rosario wants to engage Garcia early. And in a case of musical pilots, note that Bejarano acquires the square priced Vision in Gold, who rallied and wired winning her last pair. With the added presence of St. Trinians, there is very little value to be built into your exotics plays, unless you try to fit plausable 'first dirt' underneath candidate Hemera (15-1) onto ducats..

Most Likely: #4 Switch 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Always a Princess 3-1 DNF
Best Value: #7 Hemera 15-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Vision in Gold 5-1 3rd


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bella Roja 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Higher Incentive 15-1 4th
-Next Best: #2 Rule the Storm 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #6 Manhattan Beach 5-1 8th


8th: 74th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Amazing how West Coast 3yo picture went from bereft of talent to intriguing in a matter of 3-4 weeks. Stake placements by Jakesam, Surrey Star and Premier Pegasus, emergence of Albergatti, Runflatout and Bench Points, and returns of Jaycito and Awesome Patriot, make this edition of the traditional Santa Anita Derby prep completely fascinating..

Most Likely: #2 Runflatout 4-1: Sadler masterful stretching 'em out.. 10th
Best Value: #1 Albergatti 6-1: Gomez sticks with pedigreed player.. 9th
Next Best: #9 Jaycito 7-2: First time Baffert & Garcia on; Working sharp.. 2nd
Super Add: #4 Awesome Patriot 12-1: Improved in dirt bow; Price is right.. 6th


9th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Catchy Tune 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Gripsholm Castle 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Andina 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Prytania 6-1 8th


10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Gallatin's Run 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Scored 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Lichtenstein 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Sweepemup 7-2 -
Hi-5 Play: #10 Jolly Ollie 15-1 -


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6
8: 1-2-9
9: 2-6-9
10: 5-9

4x3x3x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve