Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Zenyatta ran her half mile in 49.70 and her six furlongs in 1:13.50

I don't understand. I thought Zenyatta was 75 lengths back after the first 1/4 and 120 lengths back after the half mile. That means for her to run a 49.70 the pace setters would have had to run like a 38 second half mile.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't understand. I thought Zenyatta was 75 lengths back after the first 1/4 and 120 lengths back after the half mile. That means for her to run a 49.70 the pace setters would have had to run like a 38 second half mile.

I think the official number was 16 lengths back after the first quarter mile, which is probably about right. But if you watch the pan shot, you will see she is much further back than that between calls. When they go into the clubhouse turn, she is a good 20 lengths back. They went the first 3 furlongs in about :35. She went :38 and change.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Zenyatta ran her half mile in 49.70 and her six furlongs in 1:13.50



Facepalm.

My pace figures have her running much faster early on in the BC Classic than any race she's run in over the last two years. The Moss pace figures had her running faster early than any race she had run in over the last two years.

Did Ketucky Roses In May steal your login again? Saying "it's actually one of the slowest she's run early in the race" is a weapons grade stupid comment. Show me your pace figures .. point me to races in the last two years where she ran faster on them.

We were talking about the earliest stages of the race. As you can see, I corrected my post before you made your post. As I said in the edited post, "When they went into the clubhouse turn, she was a good 20 lengths back. She ran her first 3 furlongs in somewhere between :38 and :39. That's not even close to the fastest she's run in the early stages of her races the last two years. It's actually one of the slowest."

In which races did she run her first 3 furlongs faster than :38 and change? She was going faster than that in the Lady's Secret, The Vanity, The Apple Blossom, The Santa Margarita, and almost all of her other races.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

We were talking about the earliest stages of the race. As you can see, I corrected my post before you made your post. As I said in the edited post, "When they went into the clubhouse turn, she was a good 20 lengths back. She ran her first 3 furlongs in somewhere between :38 and :39. That's not even close to the fastest she's run in the early stages of her races the last two years. It's actually one of the slowest."

I don't make numbers to that point - but - you have to take into consideration that she was exiting brutally slow paced races - some of which over days when the racing surface was yielding much quicker times.

Mike Smith just let her settle away from the gate like he always does. The only difference is that she was in with MUCH quicker horses this time - and on a surface that is much less kind to closers. Smith started to push her along after a quarter mile to keep her from dropping 30 back - and she basically had to work hard for 8 furlongs.

The idea that Smith "waited too long" is the single most retarded thought a person can have. He literally moved 8 furlongs out on her - and Zenyatta, with all that momentum on Blame - never got past him after the wire.

Had Smith let her drop 30 lengths back early and get comfortable - who knows what would have happened. She would have made up an insane amount of ground late and exploded past the wire for sure - but it's anyones guess what the result would have been.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't make numbers to that point - but - you have to take into consideration that she was exiting brutally slow paced races - some of which over days when the racing surface was yielding much quicker times.

Mike Smith just let her settle away from the gate like he always does. The only difference is that she was in with MUCH quicker horses this time - and on a surface that is much less kind to closers. Smith started to push her along after a quarter mile to keep her from dropping 30 back - and she basically had to work hard for 8 furlongs.

The idea that Smith "waited too long" is the single most retarded thought a person can have. He literally moved 8 furlongs out on her - and Zenyatta, with all that momentum on Blame - never got past him after the wire.

Had Smith let her drop 30 lengths back early and get comfortable - who knows what would have happened. She would have made up an insane amount of ground late and exploded past the wire for sure - but it's anyones guess what the result would have been.

I agree with you 100% about Mike Smith. He didn't "wait too long". He didn't want to be that far back. She didn't want to run in the early going. It wasn't his fault. She looked to me like she didn't like getting hit with the dirt. The thing that people are forgetting is that her two races at Oaklawn were in a 5 horse field and a 6 horse field. In the 6 horse field, she had post 6. She took very little dirt in those races.

It is true that Zenyatta never got passed Blame on the gallop-out but I think there are good explanations as to why. Blame was much fitter than Zenyatta. Blame has been running 1 1/8 mile races and 1 ¼ mile races. Not only had Zenyatta not run 1 ¼ miles in a year, she hadn’t even run 1 1/8 miles for 5 months. Her last two races were both 1 1/16 miles. As good of a trainer as John Shireffs is (even if he’s the best trainer in the world at getting a horse ready for a big race), I still think that Zenyatta was at a disadvantage coming into a 1 ¼ mile race against the best horses in the world, coming out of 1 1/16 mile races. Don’t get me wrong, 1 ¼ miles is definitely her best distance but it’s hard to be 100% fit to run 1 ¼ miles when you haven’t even run 1 1/8 miles for 5 months.

In a normal race, all Zenyatta needs to do is run a strong final 3 furlongs. In this race, she was a good 20 lengths back (between calls) going into the clubhouse turn. This forced her to have to make a prolonged run for the final 7 furlongs rather than just the final 3 furlongs. I’ll bet you she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5, which is unheard of. So she’s coming out of 1 1/16 mile races and she is forced to sprint her final 7 furlongs in a 1 ¼ mile race. It’s not surprising that she didn’t gallop out as strong as Blame.

[slotdirt]

So Big Z ran her fourth 1/8th in about 10 seconds? I'm impressed.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

So Big Z ran her fourth 1/8th in about 10 seconds? I'm impressed.

Where do you come up with that? If she ran 3/8ths in :38 and change and she ran the half in :49 and change, that would be :11, not :10. I think it was more like :11 2/5 or :11 3/5. She was probably about 13-14 lengths back at the half. She made up about 6-7 lengths during that 1/8th of a mile.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by sammy

Record 13: 9-2-2
Earnings $4,368,214

Record 20: 19-1-0
Earnings $7,304,580

so who is the better horse?

It's OK to admit you were wrong without making inane comparisons.

Originally Posted by sammy

q.r. will win this and is my top selection.

also blame will not finish in the money.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by sammy

Record 13: 9-2-2
Earnings $4,368,214

Record 20: 19-1-0
Earnings $7,304,580

so who is the better horse?

they are flesh and blood! How can you quantify them with numbers!!! They arent Rolexes you know...

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by sammy

Record 13: 9-2-2
Earnings $4,368,214

Record 20: 19-1-0
Earnings $7,304,580

so who is the better horse?

Those stats are totally irrelivant in this discussion. When further examining the races that Horse "A" and "B" ran in, I would think that horse "A" would have been 20: 20-0-0 in those races, where I can't be sure horse "B" would have been 13: 9-2-2. This is just getting beyond ridiculous now.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by sammy

too bad blame got his ass kicked by haynesfield.

then he would be HOTY.

but i'm sure you have some reasonable excuse for that piss poor showing.

to quote Morty... what is your primary malfunction sir?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by sammy

i guess there is no reason except maybe he didn't feel good that day, or maybe the other horse was just too fast for him on that particular day.

oh well, too bad.

race dynamics... a decent speed horse getting away with a slow pace.

Plus, he's going to be HOY anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by sammy

i guess there is no reason except maybe he didn't feel good that day, or maybe the other horse was just too fast for him on that particular day.

oh well, too bad.

It was fixed like a Rolex watch

[Duvalier]

Blame did beat some monsters in No Advantage and General Quarters along the way

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Blame did beat some monsters in No Advantage and General Quarters along the way

Well, let's not slight Taptam and Made for Magic along the way.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Blame did beat some monsters in No Advantage and General Quarters along the way

Not to mention being wired twice by 2 horses who would be called good, AT BEST. Funny Z never got wired. Pace was against her many times, lone speed and everything, she always ran them down.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by sammy

i guess there is no reason except maybe he didn't feel good that day, or maybe the other horse was just too fast for him on that particular day.

oh well, too bad.

You sir/madam are what we term a tard...because I guess last Saturday, Blame was just TOO FAST for Zenyatta.

[Duvalier]

Face it brah...neither of them raced against anything special

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by sammy

actually no he wasn't. she lost by a nose, not open lenghts like your boy did.

here, why dont you watch your horse of the year get "crushed"to refresh your memory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkBULHKdhD8

Fastest horse wins the race dumbass...here's something you may like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhSk3S13NnE

and this too:

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 Blame Garrett K. Gomez 12.40 4.40 3.80
8 Zenyatta Mike E. Smith 3.60 2.80
6 Fly Down Julien R. Leparoux 8.60
Also ran: 12 - Lookin At Lucky , 2 - Paddy O'Prado , 10 - Etched , 7 - Musket Man , 4 - First Dude , 9 - Pleasant Prince , 11 - Espoir City (JPN) , 3 - Haynesfield , 1 - Quality Road

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by sammy

thats it. i am issuing a throwdown.

i challenge you to a handicap-off.

loser leaves the derby-trail forever.

You might be on your way out anyway....
Advice I have been given, scale it back just a bit.