5/21: Belmont Park ($105k C/O)

[Kasept]

Funny how you could see the Belmont carryover slipping away Thursday starting with headscratching win by Eldaafer in the 5th ahead of Kindergaerden Kid in the 6th. While some tickets might have had one or the other on them, it would have been improbable that many had both. And when Tim Ice sent 10-1 Gangbuster, a solid synthetic performer, to an inner turf win in the 8th, the double carryover was assured.

What is always fascinating about the dynamics of the P6 is how Thursday, the sequence in New York looked very plausable and approachable and proved impossible, while the Hollywood skien looked very tricky and basically went chalky with just one winner of more than 5-1. Of course part of Thursday's challenge in Elmont was made much more daunting with the scratch of The Cuff Shooter from the nightcap. And despite finding a successful single of Spacy Tracy in the 7th, I was still only able to get 2 of the winners on the ducat. Friday's Belmont sextet looks well worth trying though...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Flaming Punch 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Goodgollymissdolly 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Illegal Search 5-2 5th


2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Great Cliff 2-1WON
Next Best: #6 Amelia the Cat 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Florida Girl 9-2 2nd


3rd: NYB-CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Next Day 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Bridge to Nowhere 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Nolite Timere 8-1 3rd


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Guiseppina 9-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Golden Grove 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Morningsideheights 6-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Mordecai Jones 5-1 5th


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Remittance 6-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Grand Piano Man 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Lord 12-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1
3: 2-5-7
4: 3-4-5-8-9
5: 4-6-7

1x3x5x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 (1-1/4/6/7-5-6/10) 4 Correct Paid $53.00


6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Al Muhtasib 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 High Stakes Player 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Loquacious 5-2 2nd


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sterling Silver 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Maid of Flowers 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Pin Turn 12-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Mesa Fresca 10-1 WON


8th: C/CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

NOTE: #11 Matt's a Giant and #1a Fujita BOTH DREW IN...

Most Likely: #2 American Cruiser 8-5 WON
Best Value: #9 Straight Romance 15-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Matt's a Giant 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Can't Refuse 15-1 8th


9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

NOTE: #11 Stormy Dixie DID DRAW IN...

Most Likely: #11 Stormy Dixie 3-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Genuine Charm 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Lucida 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Hill 5-1 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8-9
5: 6-7
6: 1-4-8
7: 2-6-9
8: 2
9: 11

4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-8
7: 2-6-8-9
8: 2
9: 6-11

3x4x1x2 = $24 x $2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve