Gulfstream Turf Course

[Scav]

OMG. Gulfstream Park listened to the fans!! Red at least marks the outer finish line on the turf. Get that inner rail taken care of and we are all good.

Great job Travis!

[Kasept]

Mentioned on the air that Powell had done some temp rail position work two winters ago... Here's his latest view of the new inner/outer concept.

From Handicapper's Edge at Brisnet


HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
by Dick Powell

Gulfstream Park has divided their turf course into inner and outer courses and a month into the 2010 meet we now have 50 turf races to analyze and see how the courses are performing. Through Wednesday of this week, there were 24 races run on the inner turf course and 26 races run on the outer turf course. Five of the 50 races were turf sprints and we will analyze them separately. This leaves us with 23 races run on the inner turf course and 22 races run on the outer turf course.

When the rail is out at least 72 feet, I am considering that the outer turf course. My research in the past showed that horses rallying from far back did well and outside post positions were inconsequential when the rail is out. Amazingly, favorites have won 10 of the 22 races contested on the outer turf course for a 45 percent strike rate. This percentage of favorites is even more amazing when you consider that the average field size was 10.91. The average winning mutuel was a healthy $17.57.

Races on the inner turf course would seem to be harder to win since the tight turns would generate rougher trips. And so far, that has been the case. In 23 races run on the inner turf course, only four favorites have been able to win for a strike rate of only 17 percent. The average field size was 11.09 and the average winning mutual was an even healthier $23.97.

So right out of the gate we see a giant dichotomy between Gulfstream's inner and outer turf courses. There is far more chaos in the results of the turf races run on the inner turf course with favorites only winning 17 percent and an average win price of $23.97. The outer turf course is the opposite in terms of winning form as favorites have won 45 percent and an average win price of $17.57.

When examining running styles, the differences are more subtle. Of the 22 races run on the outer turf course going two turns, four horses won that had the lead after a half-mile, four winners were in second after a half-mile and three were in third after a half-mile. Even with the wider turns of the outer turf course, which would seem to favor closers, horses that were prominent early won half the races. That said, four horses won after being 10th after a half-mile. What the research shows is that horses can race prominently on the outer turf course and win. Horses can sit far back on the outer turf course and win. What doesn't seem to be winning on the outer turf course are horses that run in the middle of the pack. There were only three winners that sat midpack after a half-mile and won.

Of the 23 races run on the inner turf course going two turns, there were three winning horses that won had the lead after a half-mile, only one horse that won from second after a half-mile and three horses that were third after a half-mile. Only 30 percent of the winners on the inner turf course were in the first three positions after a half-mile; way less than you would expect. Despite the tight turns of the inner turf course, two horses won after being 11th after a half-mile and five horses were ninth after a half-mile so as many horses won on the inner that were far back as those that won that were on or near the lead. And, only one of the seven closers was a favorite. Horses racing in midpack did much better on the inner turf course than the outer turf course as nine of the 23 inner turf course winners were racing in midpack after a half-mile.

Of the 22 races run on the outer turf course going two turns, only two were won from the rail, one from post 2, and two from post 3. So, only five horses won from the three inside posts on the outer turf course. One horse won from post 11, five won from post 10 and one won from post 9, so seven horses from the extreme outside posts won on the outer turf course. With the wider turns of the outer turf course, this makes sense and follows a trend that we wrote about a few years ago.

Of the 23 races run on the inner turf course going two turns, four horses won from the rail, two horses won from post 2 and one horse won from post 3, so only 30 percent of the inner turf course winners broke from the inside. One horse won from post 12, one horse won from post 11 and two horses won from post 10, so horses can win from the outside on the inner turf course. The point is that there was not any post position bias on the inner turf course.

So what do what conclusions can we draw about Gulfstream's two turf courses?

Favorites win only 17 percent of the races run on the inner turf course compared to 45 percent of the races run on the outer turf course. If you are playing horizontal wagers, you better go real deep on the inner turf course races while you should have a better chance of standing alone on the outer turf course.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced on or near the lead did surprisingly well.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced on or near the lead did surprisingly poor.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced in midpack did surprisingly poor.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced in midpack did well.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced far back did well.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced far back did surprisingly well.

On the outer turf course, horses breaking from inside posts did surprisingly poor.
On the outer turf course, horses breaking from outside posts did well
On the inner turf course, there did not appear to be any post position bias.

[cmorioles]

Still no discernible finish line.

[blackthroatedwind]

I appreciate Dick's efforts, and certainly enjoy that they dispute the lunacy an ex-poster/self-proclaimed genius used to claim about turf rail placement, but I have to wonder if such a small sample justifies making strong conclusions. I will be very interested in how this data looks after a full meet. Of course, the problem with that is how the courses can change over time, especially if there is a prolonged period without substantial rain.

Regardless, thanks a lot to Dick for the research and information.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Still no discernible finish line.

That was expecially relevent in yesterday's finale.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was expecially relevent in yesterday's finale.

A spelling error!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

So what do what conclusions can we draw about Gulfstream's two turf courses?

Favorites win only 17 percent of the races run on the inner turf course compared to 45 percent of the races run on the outer turf course. If you are playing horizontal wagers, you better go real deep on the inner turf course races while you should have a better chance of standing alone on the outer turf course.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced on or near the lead did surprisingly well.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced on or near the lead did surprisingly poor.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced in midpack did surprisingly poor.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced in midpack did well.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced far back did well.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced far back did surprisingly well.

On the outer turf course, horses breaking from inside posts did surprisingly poor.
On the outer turf course, horses breaking from outside posts did well
On the inner turf course, there did not appear to be any post position bias.

I don't know who Dick is but if I'm handicapping like this then I'm really in the wrong game. Then again, anyone just coming into the game sees this model as the way to go and follows it.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

A spelling error!

My money is on typo, unless of course you were referring to the second misspelled word. It is a sad day in DT land. Perhaps freddy stole BTW's login?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was expecially relevent in yesterday's finale.

I noticed this and it's being taken care of. There will be a red tape on the finish line the next time we're off the inside rail. We move to the inside rail this week, which has the red tape.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I noticed this and it's being taken care of. There will be a red tape on the finish line the next time we're off the inside rail. We move to the inside rail this week, which has the red tape.

You need to empty your messages.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

You need to empty your messages.

My sent box was full... both are empty now.

[Dick Powell]

Andy,
I wanted to wait until the sample was big enough but not wait too long into the meet and have it as useless. Results were interesting to say the least. One thing I have noticed, and maybe Travis could comment on this, is how the turf course(s) lack the bounce they used to have when they were first installed. They used to fly home with outrageously-fast final fractions. Now, not so much. I know the courses are being used hard and that might have something to do with it.
Dick

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice job dick thanks.