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  #1  
Old 10-25-2009, 12:33 AM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
How come to be "Lukas'd" doesn't mean to be like:

I mean, he's had a little success with 3yos.

Tank's Prospect - won the preakness and DNF'd in the Belmont, never running again.

Winning Colors - Never really the same after the Preakness. Stephens more to blame for that one I guess.

Tabasco Cat - won the preakness and belmont, then closed out his career going 1 for 6.

Thunder Gulch - Didn't make it to the BC of his 3yo year before being done.

Timber Country - Retired after Preakness.

Grindstone - I got a call a few minutes after the derby from a friend saying he was so messed up going into the derby, that immediately after the race the connections knew he was finished.

Editor's Note - After his Super Derby win, ran 11 more times with one win, an alw race. That was his only ITM performance, and 7 of those 11 races were double digit losses.

Charismatic - Broke down in the Belmont.

Commendable - you gotta be kidding me.

Cat Thief - Useful and did get the fluke BCC win. Worst crop in the last twenty years except for the Big Brown crop.

Serena's Song - She stayed good for a long time. Tailed off a bit at the end.

Sharp Cat - Got better with age.

Lady's Secret - Tailed off pretty bad at the end there.

Sacahuista - Nice filly

Most of those you list tailed off real bad, burned out or got hurt.
I also did mention he was more notorious with his 2yos in the 80s.
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  #2  
Old 10-25-2009, 12:49 AM
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For a recent horse ... I would have liked to have seen Zaftig run on dirt again after her Acorn win last year.

In just her 5th lifetime start, Zaftig won the Acorn with a 113 Beyer.

Since they've been published in the DRF in 1990, here are the top 3 all-time fastest winning Beyers in the Acorn.

* 2008: Zaftig (113)
* 1993: Sky Beauty (107)
* 1997: Sharp Cat (103)

At one point - Sky Beauty was 12-for-12 with 7 Grade 1 wins at Belmont Park. She was the queen of Belmont.

Sharp Cat won back-to-back Grade 1's by daylight with Beyers of 112 and 119 at Belmont in her final two starts there.

Zaftig ran exactly 8.5 lengths faster than the average winning Acorn figure... and the Acorn is a very serious race. Winners over that span include Meadow Star, Prospectors Delite, Sky Beauty, Inside Information, Sharp Cat, Jersey Girl, Three Ring, Bird Town, and Round Pond.


Zaftig came back injured .. and made just one more start in her career. She finished 3rd off the layoff in last years synthetic BC Filly and Mare Sprint and got hurt again. It sounded a lot like her decision to run in the BC last year was an owners decision...and she was rushed to it.
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  #3  
Old 10-25-2009, 06:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I don't know what he was thinking with Dinard. That horse was a near certainty to win his derby. EOTY I agree with him, sorta. I doubt he could have beaten that field.
Dinard was nowhere near a certainty.

A deserving favorite perhaps, but then again, IIRC, Hansel was running much faster (at least in the Jim Beam). Obviously Hansel bombed on Derby day, but was his best race ultimately better than Dinard's? Quite possibly. What if he showed up on Derby Day?

And what of Best Pal? Yes, Dinard got the better of him in the San Rafael (in Best Pal's 3yo debut off a 3 month layoff) and the Santa Anita Derby. But wasn't that somewhat of a winning profile for several Derby winners that decade? Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Go For Gin were also only earning placings in their preps before "peaking" on Derby day. And in fact, Best Pal ran a huge race only to be beaten by Strike The Gold, who at the time was in very good form and getting as much press as any of the other principals. His typical Zito decline later on has no relevance here.

Also of note is the results of the Strub series later that year when the roles between Dinard and Best Pal were reversed. Best Pal, in top form, was not threatened in the slightest by Dinard in either the San Fernando (at 9f) or the Strub (at 10f). Obviously, its quite possible Dinard's injury had residual effects that kept him from realizing his full potential, but obviously not enough to keep him from competing in Grade 1 events. Interestingly, both he and old rival Olympio never ran again after chasing Best Pal in the Strub series.

Finally, Dinard worked notoriously poorly leading up to the Derby (6f in 1:18). Was he injured in the work? Probably, but he certainly didn't limp off the track (the injury wasn't detected until 4 or 5 days post-work), so it's still possible he didn't care for the CD surface.

Last edited by RolloTomasi : 10-25-2009 at 06:54 PM.
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  #4  
Old 10-25-2009, 07:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Dinard was nowhere near a certainty.

A deserving favorite perhaps, but then again, IIRC, Hansel was running much faster (at least in the Jim Beam). Obviously Hansel bombed on Derby day, but was his best race ultimately better than Dinard's? Quite possibly. What if he showed up on Derby Day?

And what of Best Pal? Yes, Dinard got the better of him in the San Rafael (in Best Pal's 3yo debut off a 3 month layoff) and the Santa Anita Derby. But wasn't that somewhat of a winning profile for several Derby winners that decade? Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Go For Gin were also only earning placings in their preps before "peaking" on Derby day. And in fact, Best Pal ran a huge race only to be beaten by Strike The Gold, who at the time was in very good form and getting as much press as any of the other principals. His typical Zito decline later on has no relevance here.

Also of note is the results of the Strub series later that year when the roles between Dinard and Best Pal were reversed. Best Pal, in top form, was not threatened in the slightest by Dinard in either the San Fernando (at 9f) or the Strub (at 10f). Obviously, its quite possible Dinard's injury had residual effects that kept him from realizing his full potential, but obviously not enough to keep him from competing in Grade 1 events. Interestingly, both he and old rival Olympio never ran again after chasing Best Pal in the Strub series.

Finally, Dinard worked notoriously poorly leading up to the Derby (6f in 1:18). Was he injured in the work? Probably, but he certainly didn't limp off the track (the injury wasn't detected until 4 or 5 days post-work), so it's still possible he didn't care for the CD surface.
My recollection was that he bowed sometime after the Santa Anita Derby.

Remember that when him and Best Pal were racing against each other, Best Pal was a far more experienced and seasoned horse. In my eyes, there was a large gap in talent between those two.

And yeah, Dinard was nowhere near the same horse after the injury. It's pretty well established that horses are usually diminished after that injury, which is a testament to how good that horse would have been.

To recap, Dinard didn't even debut until opening day of SA. He won by 5 in 109.3.

Wheeled back in just two weeks in the Los Feliz, he wins by 6 in 135.3 over the VERY nice Olympio and Formal Dinner!

Back a month later, he drops back down to 7f in the San Vicente and loses by a nose to Olympio, while 9 back in third was Scan. Time? 121.2

Three weeks later is the San Rafael. Back again to a mile, he gets a super hard fought win over the vastly underrated Apollo (by a head) with Best Pal also in the photo for third. Eight back to fourth. Time was 135.4. To this day, one of the best races I've ever seen and one of my favorites as well.

Next up is the Santa Anita Derby. Another win over Best Pal in 148 flat, this time by a half length.

At this point, he's got 4 wins and a tough beat second in 5 starts. This horse was the real deal and almost certainly was better than anything in the East that year.

After the injury he made only three starts, all in the Strub series, and that was it. He never won, though he did get a 117 BSF in his last start for running second. That horse was simply great, no ifs ands or buts about it.

By the way, your comparison with horses later that decade is irrelevant. If anything, Dinard was right in the middle of a streak where the Santa Anita Derby winner was seemingly cursed.

After Sunday Silence won in 89:

1990 Mister Frisky. Almost dies during the triple crown from a throat abscess and never regained his winning ways.

1991 Dinard. See above.

1992 AP Indy. Scratched out of the Ky Derby on that very morning.

1993 Personal Hope. Never really heard from ever again.

1994 Brocco. Couldn't overcome Randy Winnick. Did he ever win again?

1995 Larry the Legend. Won the SA Derby and then didn't run again for like 15 months.

1996 was Cavonnier. I know he barely lost the derby, but wasn't he hurt shortly after that?

In that span, I'd say Dinard and Indy were just about as close to locks as you can have in that race, had they not been hurt.
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  #5  
Old 10-24-2009, 11:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Holy Bull:

2nd Donn to Cigar
1st Westchester
1st Met Mile
1st Brooklyn
1st Iselin
1st Whitney
2nd Woodward by a nose
1st NYRA Mile
retired

The Westchester and Brooklyn?? I guess Cigar beats him again by a nose in the Woodward?

His intended campaign was supposed to be...

Olympic
Donn
Santa Anita Handicap
Met Mile
Iselin
Woodward
BC Classic
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  #6  
Old 10-25-2009, 06:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KirisClown
The Westchester and Brooklyn?? I guess Cigar beats him again by a nose in the Woodward?

His intended campaign was supposed to be...

Olympic
Donn
Santa Anita Handicap
Met Mile
Iselin
Woodward
BC Classic
Plans change when you get beat. Gotta start from scratch sometimes. No way he was going to Santa Anita to run 10f.
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  #7  
Old 10-24-2009, 10:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Grand Canyon as a 3yo.
Isn't it amazing that a horse like that can run a 120 Beyer as a 2yo in the Hollywood Futurity and obliterate 2nd place finisher Farma Way.

And also at Hollywood Park - Favorite Trick gets voted Horse of the Year after obliterating a terrible Canadian horse and a lifelong maiden with a 101 in a year when the handicap division was at its deepest and the 2yo division was markedly below par.

People wonder why I thump hardcore with speed figures when I talk about evaluating top horses from different time periods ... and yet the same speed figures are down quite a ways on factors that determine whom I bet ... look no further than Favorite Trick.
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  #8  
Old 10-24-2009, 10:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Grand Canyon as a 3yo.

Landaluce as a 3yo.

How the BC Distaff would have turned out had Go for Wand not broken down.

Lost Code in the 1987 and 1988 BC Classics.

King Glorious face Easy Goer and Sunday Silence.

The 1987 Travers on a fast track so when Java Gold kicked ass, there would have been no excuses.

Dinard, Event of the Year, and Dehere in their respective Derbies.

Arazi sent to the Derby with more than that one 8f grass prep.

Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, and Holy Bull complete their 4yo seasons.

Ghostzapper vs. Smarty Jones.

Candy Ride in the 2003 BC Classic.

Zenyatta face the boys.

Manila in the 1987 BC Turf
Obvious choice, I wish I was at Belmont in 73 to watch Secretariat run.

My not so obvious choice Makybe Diva's third straight Melbourne Cup in 05.
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  #9  
Old 10-24-2009, 10:42 PM
chucklestheclown chucklestheclown is offline
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I wish Barbaro would have completed his 3 year old campaign.
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  #10  
Old 10-26-2009, 07:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy
i did see Onion beat Secretariat.
Did you cry?
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  #11  
Old 10-25-2009, 07:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Grand Canyon as a 3yo.

Landaluce as a 3yo.

How the BC Distaff would have turned out had Go for Wand not broken down.

Lost Code in the 1987 and 1988 BC Classics.

King Glorious face Easy Goer and Sunday Silence.

The 1987 Travers on a fast track so when Java Gold kicked ass, there would have been no excuses.

Dinard, Event of the Year, and Dehere in their respective Derbies.

Arazi sent to the Derby with more than that one 8f grass prep.

Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, and Holy Bull complete their 4yo seasons.

Ghostzapper vs. Smarty Jones.

Candy Ride in the 2003 BC Classic.

Zenyatta face the boys.

Manila in the 1987 BC Turf
I am pretty sure that he was a lot better off running in races where the next best horse was Music Merci.
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  #12  
Old 10-25-2009, 07:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
I am pretty sure that he was a lot better off running in races where the next best horse was Music Merci.
I'm even more sure you are wrong.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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  #13  
Old 10-26-2009, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I'm even more sure you are wrong.
I think we have had this discussion about 37 times, but just out of curiosity, at what distance would you have wanted to see your namesake compete with the big boys? Certainly not 10f. They would have destroyed him.
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  #14  
Old 10-26-2009, 11:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
I think we have had this discussion about 37 times, but just out of curiosity, at what distance would you have wanted to see your namesake compete with the big boys? Certainly not 10f. They would have destroyed him.
8f. Even up to 9f. I think beyond that, they start to even out. Depending on who else was in the race and how the pace played out, they might never catch KG going 10f. But at 8f, I don't think they'd have a chance of catching him.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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  #15  
Old 10-27-2009, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
at 8f, I don't think they'd have a chance of catching him.
Not a chance? Have you watched Easy Goer's 8f effort in the Gotham recently? I would argue that was a better race than KG ever ran at any distance.
At 8f, KG would have a shot, but at 9f+ I'd give him little or no chance.
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