Gotta love Saratoga/NYRA - Condition Book

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

but again , please tell me what the last 5 yrs has to do with the stock he is taking to 'toga this year

are the same 2 yr olds going with him to 'toga this year?

You just don't get it apparently...That stats back up the fact that when Keaneally goes up to Saratoga with 2YOs, he simply doesn't do well for whatever reason. I mean yeah, he may do ok up there, but unfortunately for you and him there's going to be other horses running in the same 2YO races that Keaneally runs horses in. He's not going to be running races against mules. His 2YOs at Churchill have been running against maybe 4 trainers who are anything with 2YOs or that have any type of 2YOs in the barn (Assmussen, Amoss, Scherer, and Lukas). In case you didn't know there are trainers named Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin, and others. Historically he has not had his 2YOs ready to fire their best shot, what makes this year any different...

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No basic logic courses in college for you, Gales?

the same 2 year olds aren't going but the same crew is --- a crew that's shown to be pretty much INEPT at winning with 2 year olds (1st time starters, whatever). That's what the data is showing.

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

[gales0678]

[quote=JerseyJ]You just don't get it apparently...That stats back up the fact that when Keaneally goes up to Saratoga with 2YOs, he simply doesn't do well for whatever reason. I mean yeah, he may do ok up there, but unfortunately for you and him there's going to be other horses running in the same 2YO races that Keaneally runs horses in. He's not going to be running races against mules. His 2YOs at Churchill have been running against maybe 4 trainers who are anything with 2YOs or that have any type of 2YOs in the barn (Assmussen, Amoss, Scherer, and Lukas). In case you didn't know there are trainers named Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin, and others. Historically he has not had his 2YOs ready to fire their best shot, what makes this year any different...[/QUOTE]

the horses in the barn this year are different

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by gales0678

chuck , i will say he has a postive ROI for his 2 yr olds at saratoga

and....???

[JerseyJ]

[quote=gales0678]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

You just don't get it apparently...That stats back up the fact that when Keaneally goes up to Saratoga with 2YOs, he simply doesn't do well for whatever reason. I mean yeah, he may do ok up there, but unfortunately for you and him there's going to be other horses running in the same 2YO races that Keaneally runs horses in. He's not going to be running races against mules. His 2YOs at Churchill have been running against maybe 4 trainers who are anything with 2YOs or that have any type of 2YOs in the barn (Assmussen, Amoss, Scherer, and Lukas). In case you didn't know there are trainers named Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin, and others. Historically he has not had his 2YOs ready to fire their best shot, what makes this year any different...[/QUOTE]

the horses in the barn this year are different

And frankly, it doesn't matter to me, because He has NOT PROVEN that he can win with 2YOs and firsters at Saratoga.

It's like I said, you think that Assmussen, Lukas, Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin and other trainers who have outstanding stock for 2YOs on a regular basis are going to be sending out rats up at Saratoga in 2YO races? Keneally is going to have to run his 2YOs against OTHER TALENTED 2YOs. You think those guys I mentioned don't want to win races at Saratoga with 2YOs? You think that Lukas doesn't want to win with a Whitney 2YO, Zito with LaPenta, Baffert for Zayat or Pegram, Pletcher for Coolmore, Assmussen for whomever? You are out of your freaking mind if you think that Keneally's going to outperform those guys with 2YOs at Saratoga.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

and....???

if ma and pa joe bet $2 to win on all his 2 yr old starters they will walk away with a profit for the meet

some people here play the ex's and maybe some of his runners will fill on the bottom half of a big exacta

i'm just passing the info along, the booklet they hand out will not tell you to use his 2 yr olds

[gales0678]

[quote=JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

And frankly, it doesn't matter to me, because He has NOT PROVEN that he can win with 2YOs and firsters at Saratoga.

It's like I said, you think that Assmussen, Lukas, Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin and other trainers who have outstanding stock for 2YOs on a regular basis are going to be sending out rats up at Saratoga in 2YO races? Keneally is going to have to run his 2YOs against OTHER TALENTED 2YOs. You think those guys I mentioned don't want to win races at Saratoga with 2YOs? You think that Lukas doesn't want to win with a Whitney 2YO, Zito with LaPenta, Baffert for Zayat or Pegram, Pletcher for Coolmore, Assmussen for whomever? You are out of your freaking mind if you think that Keneally's going to outperform those guys with 2YOs at Saratoga.

i'm not talking about outperforming anyone , i'm talking about a positive ROI this year , do i think his barn will have the most 2 yr old winners of the meet no? but i think he will have some ready to go and he will show a postive ROI , he will fill in some nice ex's and tri's in the baby races this year , throw his runners out this year based on what the barn has done over the last 5 yrs at your own peril

[JerseyJ]

[quote=gales0678]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

i'm not talking about outperforming anyone , i'm talking about a positive ROI this year , do i think his barn will have the most 2 yr old winners of the meet no? but i think he will have some ready to go and he will show a postive ROI , he will fill in some nice ex's and tri's in the baby races this year , throw his runners out this year based on what the barn has done over the last 5 yrs at your own peril

Here's what you aren't getting though. In order for him to have a positive ROI on $2 win bets, his horses are going to have to beat the horses from the stables I mentioned, which isn't very likely to happen very often, hence why it will be tough for him to win many 2YO races at Saratoga, and tough therefore to build an ROI.

[gales0678]

[quote=JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Here's what you aren't getting though. In order for him to have a positive ROI on $2 win bets, his horses are going to have to beat the horses from the stables I mentioned, which isn't very likely to happen very often, hence why it will be tough for him to win many 2YO races at Saratoga, and tough therefore to build an ROI.

all it takes is 1 or 2 at a nice px for the meet to show a positive ROI , remember when he is in those full fields with the trainers you mention they will be taking a lot of $$$, his horses odds will be higher in 'toga than the rest of they year when he is at AP + CD + GP

saratoga is 6 short weeks

i will make you a bet that he has a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds this yr at toga ..... I can wire the $ to saratoga tomorrow byk can hold it and pay the winner when the meet ends

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

[randallscott35]

I swear people would fight about if the sky were blue on here...baby races are exciting as to the original post, bring on Toga.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

Steve,

how many do you think he is going to start 50 ? He only has to put 1 or 2 over this meet and you will make $$$ with him , throw his runners out at your own peril this year , there is always a few "suprise" trainers , i think he will be one this year , will see

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

What does Bill Mott winning for Zayot 2 years ago have to do with 2009? Last year he couldn't buy a race.

You have to be a lucky ass to win any 2year old race. Any trainer will tell you that.

If you are any kind of PLAYER, you don't play 1sters. These a Watch list races for god sake.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by MisterB

What does Bill Mott winning for Zayot 2 years ago have to do with 2009? Last year he couldn't buy a race.

You have to be a lucky ass to win any 2year old race. Any trainer will tell you that.

If you are any kind of PLAYER, you don't play 1sters. These a Watch list races for god sake.

no question , the whole point of my response to scav was to just tell him that the barn believes they have better stock this year then in year's past. that may not be good eneough to win some races because they can't know about all the competition.

will see what happens only a few more weeks to go

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by gales0678

no question , the whole point of my response to scav was to just tell him that the barn believes they have better stock this year then in year's past. that may not be good eneough to win some races because they can't know about all the competition.

will see what happens only a few more weeks to go

My biggest problem with Kentucky trainers invading the Spa, is NYRA gives them 30 stalls to encourage them to ship here, and the larger purses warrent the move. The problem is they don't start many of the ones they ship in. Leaving NY trainers to get lesser stall space, and they are forced to ship up and down 87. Of course, this has nothing to do with the topic

I don't have the stats, and I'm talking off the cuff/or out my ars, but I don't think the Past few years have not been to good to the Churchill group. They use to be a good angle at one time, but I find it as a good bet against the last few years.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by MisterB

My biggest problem with Kentucky trainers invading the Spa, is NYRA gives them 30 stalls to encourage them to ship here, and the larger purses warrent the move. The problem is they don't start many of the ones they ship in. Leaving NY trainers to get lesser stall space, and they are forced to ship up and down 87. Of course, this has nothing to do with the topic

I don't have the stats, and I'm talking off the cuff/or out my ars, but I don't think the Past few years have not been to good to the Churchill group. They use to be a good angle at one time, but I find it as a good bet against the last few years.

i'm sure they have been , he just has better stock this year than what he has had last couple of years , does better stock translate into wins ....they may or may not , as i told scav just don't blanketly throw out all of his this year

[Linny]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who has the horses, but pattern prevails. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Linny

Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who have the horses but pattern prevail. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.

i would rather take a shot with betting a trainer that will not get overbet/be the chalk in almost every race , how many 2 yr old horses that any of the 3 guys you mentioned are going to pay $10+ dollars to win , probably very few

when the word gets around that todd or kiran or Assmussen has a runner they get bet heavily in full fields and i just let them go at those short prices and pass

[Linny]

I don't have 2008 charts in front of me but I had Kensei at a decent price last summer and when I see the charts I'll be reminded of others. After all alot of the maidens will have 3 or 4 "top juvie trainers" represented.
I like P3's and P4's so I need to find trainers with winning profiles, not guys that hit the board. I'd rather be alive to Todd or Steve in a baby race than Eddie. If the issue is MDCL at Saratoga, don't overlook the Chief. Jerkens' Smokume paid for a great evening out at the Spa a few years back after a MDCL win. Like Kelly Kip a decade earlier, Smokume became GRADED WINNER.
The key is to spot trends early and pounce. Todd, for example often starts Saratoga with guns blazing, then runs through his stock and hits a lull during weeks 3-4. Then some of his opening week stock is ready to come back. (Mind you a lull for Todd often means winning with 1 of 5 rather than 1 of 4.)

[Travis Stone]

I should have saved the $8.50 for the movie last night to stay home and follow this thread. I think the thread was more entertaining (although Public Enemies is pretty good).