Thank You Mine That Bird

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What bias....one that helped overmatched horses?

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Kind of the way the old Keeneland played.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

its very rarely speed and not inside, the two are related.

[nomad]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Or you can say we were denied a possibly memorable finish by some sh*t horse from New Mexico who rode the bias and the smartest jockey on the track to a win. What's worse a slow race on off going with a fun finish or some horse that no one could identify who won by six or seven lengths?

HEY! Don't knock New Mexico. I live here & it IS in the United States.

The problem was that we handicapped like professionals & didn't use the twinza angle. When 2 horses in the race have similar names (Summer Bird, Mine That Bird), one will be in the money.
I forgot about that!

I bet Hold Me Back & Musket Man, & used Pioneer & Papa Clem, did not use FF or the winner.
Oh well

I wonder how much, if any, respect, MTB will get in the Preakness. Musket Man did prove himself to be a solid performer, as did POTN

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If it wasn't for Mine That Bird's inscutable effort today, we would have seen three relative mediocrities hit the wire together in one of the slowest KY Derbies in modern history. Now, instead of endlessly hearing about how wonderful a horse Pioneer of the Nile is, and one that only synthetic haters failed to see the obvious greatness of, we can all scratch our heads as to how this otherwise " slow " horse could destroy today's field.

I guess two things happened, the good horses all scratched for various reasons in the weeks leading up to the race and one horse loved the off-going....and the rest just aren't that good or completely didn't show up.

Today's Derby, which had a great deal of promise a month ago, ended up being a shell of its possible self, and one run on a sloppy surface that ultimately answered few questions. But at least it didn't produce a slew of undeserved accolades. For that I am thankful.

i agree with that. i was more excited about game one between the caps/pens then i was about the race.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i agree with that. i was more excited about game one between the caps/pens then i was about the race.

What was the score,by the way?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

What was the score,by the way?

3-2 caps! i was so mad about having to leave, about half an hour before the faceoff. thank god for sirius. people were looking at me kind of funny driving down the road, slapping the dashboard and yelling 'steckelllllllll!!". got home in time to see the last five minutes or so on t.v. watched the whole thing again last night when my son got home.

[byalip]

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by byalip

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

many times i don't even look at who's riding.
bill shoemaker could have risen from the dead to ride mine that bird, he'd have still been 50-1-and rightfully so.

calvin doesn't win every race with that ride you know. he has to have the horse to pull it off. it worked yesterday. everything came together for him and he got the brass ring.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by byalip

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.

The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If it wasn't for Mine That Bird's inscutable effort today, we would have seen three relative mediocrities hit the wire together in one of the slowest KY Derbies in modern history. Now, instead of endlessly hearing about how wonderful a horse Pioneer of the Nile is, and one that only synthetic haters failed to see the obvious greatness of, we can all scratch our heads as to how this otherwise " slow " horse could destroy today's field.

I guess two things happened, the good horses all scratched for various reasons in the weeks leading up to the race and one horse loved the off-going....and the rest just aren't that good or completely didn't show up.

Today's Derby, which had a great deal of promise a month ago, ended up being a shell of its possible self, and one run on a sloppy surface that ultimately answered few questions. But at least it didn't produce a slew of undeserved accolades. For that I am thankful.

Yes it certainly would have made a huge diff. if Quality Road and Revenge had shown up as they would have certainly had a great effort over that slop.

Potatoes with your sour kraut?

Blame on the Nordic weather god.
jeeezzzz...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If it wasn't for Mine That Bird's inscutable effort today, we would have seen three relative mediocrities hit the wire together in one of the slowest KY Derbies in modern history. Now, instead of endlessly hearing about how wonderful a horse Pioneer of the Nile is, and one that only synthetic haters failed to see the obvious greatness of, we can all scratch our heads as to how this otherwise " slow " horse could destroy today's field.

I guess two things happened, the good horses all scratched for various reasons in the weeks leading up to the race and one horse loved the off-going....and the rest just aren't that good or completely didn't show up.

Today's Derby, which had a great deal of promise a month ago, ended up being a shell of its possible self, and one run on a sloppy surface that ultimately answered few questions. But at least it didn't produce a slew of undeserved accolades. For that I am thankful.

And oh hell yes this race was the nail in the
coffin proving that POTN cannot run on dirt.

Righto.

[ninetoone]

Somebody at DRF better edit Beyer's chat transcript from the other day...whoops!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Somebody at DRF better edit Beyer's chat transcript from the other day...whoops!

You loved the winner?

Come on.....everyone mocked his chances.

[Lava]

POTN is a plodder

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You loved the winner?

Come on.....everyone mocked his chances.

My main bet was the 19 to win, but I did have a $10 6-8 exacta box as a flyer...who would have thought that it would be the six that would be nowhere to be found at the finish...so yeah, I'm a dumb *ss

[basement bob]

i can't wait to hear what john white has to say?