4/10 (KEE): Maker's Mark (G1); Fort Harrod (L) - Page 2

the_fat_man · #21 04-10-2009, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

As far as Just As Well, I don't think they need to fall apart in front of him. He ran a pretty strong final quarter in the GP Turf Cap in a race that was certainly not collapsing. He needs a well-timed move going a mile but considering the pace will be good, he has the best turf rider on the grounds on his back, and will be a better price than Thorn Song.

What do you think of Twilight Meteor?

NT

I don't think JaW ran particularly well in the GP turf. He last moved a field that had done much middle running trying to run down Kip Deville -- that's the only way he was able to get past Court Vision or, even, Kiss the Kid.

As for TM, I never thought much of him as a horse but he'll probably get the best trip of all today. Unless, of course, Albarado uses his head and stalks with TS.

Sightseek · #22 04-10-2009, 11:12 AM

Twilight Meteor is scratched.

Travis Stone · #23 04-10-2009, 11:41 AM

I can't get excited about Thorn Song at 5-2 with his woeful deterioration in form last year. Sure he could win, and a good portion of the time he probably does, but I think there are better opportunities. Horses like Just as Well and Passager could easily win this race but ultimately they're good not great.

I think the interesting play in this race is Fluke who was really sharp last time against an okay group out west, has handled a wet turf before and is interestingly spotted by Frankel.

Bobby Fischer · #24 04-10-2009, 11:45 AM

MM - looks like a single-race pass to me. Not really liking anyone here at their probable odds.

The Harrod looks like it has an obvious winner, although I could be wrong.

jms62 · #25 04-10-2009, 11:51 AM

Unless it is a Fluke, You only need to go 2 deep... 4-Passanger / 7-Just as Well

booner · #26 04-10-2009, 02:23 PM

Now that Twilight Meteor has scratched, I don't have a play in this race. I went ahead and chose Fluke in the Keeneland contest.

blackthroatedwind · #27 04-10-2009, 02:33 PM

Not playing due to the scratch. No value, no pace, no interest.

Bigsmc · #28 04-10-2009, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Unless it is a Fluke, You only need to go 2 deep... 4-Passanger / 7-Just as Well

I admire your conviction, but you're completely disregarding Thorn Song?

Bobby Fischer · #29 04-10-2009, 03:26 PM

Gomez rode his ass off again in the Ft Harrod.

I like that he's been aggressive, and he's made the right moves, just has misjudged some of these to the favor of the last-move suck up specialists.

Thought Rocket Legs was a good price at 5-2 but he ran like a dud, broke sluggishly, swung up to the front in a pioneerof the early move in the face of a decent pace, and quit badly. Not a lot of horse to work with

cakes44 · #30 04-10-2009, 04:08 PM

Is there a weaker finisher than Prado these days? How did he not get that horse up in the Maker's Mark?

booner · #31 04-10-2009, 04:09 PM

Nice run by Mr. Sidney. Thorn Song ran Fluke into the ground, and then pretty well sunk into the ground.

Final time: 1:41.84. The course was so soft it looked like they were running on a treadmill halfway through and out of the final turn.

golfer · #32 04-10-2009, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Is there a weaker finisher than Prado these days? How did he not get that horse up in the Maker's Mark?

I was shocked he did not blow right by. Prado was supremely confident, waiting until Mr Sidney got away by 3 lengths before even asking Passager.

the_fat_man · #33 04-10-2009, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

I was shocked he did not blow right by. Prado was supremely confident, waiting until Mr Sidney got away by 3 lengths before even asking Passager.

That's one interpretation. Another is that Prado just couldn't go with MS, when that one moved to the leaders on the turn. That he couldn't run with him at that point and that he couldn't go by midstretch indicates how much better MS was today. (Or how big a hanger Passager is.) Of course, if Desormeaux GUNNED MS on the turn, like Gomez did Ventura yesterday, rather than going to the leaders patiently and in hand, Passager wins the race and the suckup, Just As Well, might've been 2nd.

golfer · #34 04-10-2009, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's one interpretation. Another is that Prado just couldn't go with MS, when that one moved to the leaders on the turn. That he couldn't run with him at that point and that he couldn't go by midstretch indicates how much better MS was today. (Or how big a hanger Passager is.) Of course, if Desormeaux GUNNED MS on the turn, like Gomez did Ventura yesterday, rather than going to the leaders patiently and in hand, Passager wins the race and the suckup, Just As Well, might've been 2nd.

It is possible that he couldn't go with Mr Sidney, but he certainly wasn't being asked or encouraged, and why that was only Prado knows.

the_fat_man · #35 04-10-2009, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

It is possible that he couldn't go with Mr Sidney, but he certainly wasn't being asked or encouraged, and why that was only Prado knows.

Golfer

He couldn't go with Mr Sydney 'cause he didn't have the requisite speed. Had Prado pushed him, he probably doesn't even get 2nd. If he couldn't pass MS with the trip he got, he certainly wasn't going to do by having to run earlier. He got the best possible ride and lost. Simple as that.

Suckups need the race to fall apart for them to win. If they had any speed/gameness then they wouldn't depend on ALL the others failing in order to win. The turf was off and the front runners got the worst of it. Passager needed MS to go harder on the turn or for there to have been another move in the race.

blackthroatedwind · #36 04-10-2009, 04:59 PM

I can only assume the race has been downgraded to a listed stake.

cakes44 · #37 04-10-2009, 05:22 PM

I don't see Mr. Sidney coming back on Passager if Prado sends him by right after the turn, though I guess it's possible. There was really no threat of losing 2nd regardless.

golfer · #38 04-10-2009, 05:33 PM

I've only seen Passager run 3 times in the US. His first start he made a fairly big early move, and rightfully tired in the stretch. 2 weeks ago, he made another big move, a bit later in the race, and was flying down the stretch until being shut off.

He may be a MAJOR hanger, but I did not have that indication until today. Perhaps if I had seen his European races, I might have been able to make a better determination, and a better wager.

the_fat_man · #39 04-10-2009, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

I don't see Mr. Sidney coming back on Passager if Prado sends him by right after the turn, though I guess it's possible. There was really no threat of losing 2nd regardless.

I think there was a similar situation a few months ago (AQU 9th race, I believe).

Searling, showing infinite patience, tried to explain to you why your perspective was off. You clearly didn't listen to him, as you're back with the same argument.

Bobby Fischer · #40 04-10-2009, 06:00 PM

GoGo Gomez 1st turn! Fort Harrod into solid fractions for 1 5/8ths
24.33 47.77, 1:11.47, 1:37.14, 2:04.40, 2:44.02

saving some bandwidth
click link to see awful .gif of Bold Early tactics from Gomez --> http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3076/gogo.gif