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#1
03-23-2009, 08:32 AM
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California two best 3yo's dirt projections...
Do they regress, hold form, or move-up on real dirt? My analysis.
* Pioneer of the Nile: The case for him handling dirt is pretty simple and straightforward. His sire Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes. His dam Star of Goshen was a freaky sophomore in '97.  Since Beyer figures have been published in the form - there have been 17 runnings of the KY Oaks and the avg winning figure is 99. Star of Goshen ran a figure faster than Oaks winning par when she won her lifetime debut. She came to Churchill on Derby week .. and obliterated a strong field by 11 lengths in the La Troienne. The crushed 2nd place finisher was Pearl City - who won the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at the same distance later in the year. The 4th place finisher was Ajina - who won the Breeders Cup Distaff later in the year and was named champion 3yo filly over Sharp Cat. Love That Jazz - who later beat males in a 6 furlong Graded Stake was part of that La Troienne pace as well. Star of Goshen was beaten bad as a 1/20 favorite in her next start, and was eased in her 5th and final start and retired. She might have been by great turf sire Lord At War .. but she loved dirt. Pioneer of the Nile is a half sib to Forefathers. Forefathers started his career on turf in Europe - was a bad 7th - and was sent to America. He was certainly a better horse on dirt than either turf or synthetic - surfaces he tried on multiple occasions. Pioneer of the Nile might have debuted on turf - but so did two of the last 3 Ky Derby winners in Big Brown and Barbaro. The case against POTN handling dirt is the fact that he debuted on turf when with Bill Mott. By Empire Maker out of a Lord At War mare - those are two very good turf names. Since synthetic track races are often run like bad, boring, unexciting turf races... a horse who is bred to simply hate turf like I Want Revenge is ... that's the type of horse you want going syn-to-dirt. POTN's off the pace running style is not nearly as dirt track friendly either. * The Pampelmoussee Sired by Kafwain - who ran a mind-boggling 115 Beyer in the San Vincente going 7fs in Feb of his 3yo season while dusting a future Big Cap winner in Southern Image. Like Star of Goshen - he had a big background from the 2yo sales, he was brilliant when right, but seemed to have real issues. Kafwain's a young stallion so the samples aren't big - but his offspring win at just 5% (3-for-55) on turf - 12% (16-for-139) on synthetic tracks - and 20% (80-for-405) on dirt. When you consider The Pampelmoussee is 3-for-5 lifetime on synthetic ... the rest of Kafwain's offspring win at less than 10% on syn tracks. That's a very positive sign for The P's dirt prospects. The dam of The Pampelmoussee is Comfort Zone. She was a total speed sprinter for Neil Howard. She broke her maiden in June of her 2yo season dominating a 5.5f Churchill Downs maiden race wire-to-wire in the slop with a huge 97 Beyer. She won an allowance next out by 5 in the Churchill mud. She only ran twice more .. both times showing intense speed and stopping in sprints. The P's chances of moving up on dirt look pretty great because of his speedy running style and solid dirt/sloppy track pedigree. However, The P's speedy dam Comfort Zone is a half sibling to 0-for-10 career maiden Wilshewed. That's only important because Wilshewed is the dam of Stormello - who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity in his only lifetime start over a syn track. So there is some syn track breeding in the tail-female. What's important to remember about The P - is that while I believe he could at least hold form and probably move-up on dirt ... his pedigree is so strongly slanted in favor of speed on both sides .. that in a fast paced 10f race like the Derby .. I think there is a great chance he won't see out the distance. Still, he might look pretty strong going into the far turn in the Derby. He should make life very tough for all of the real nice horses this year that want to stalk a cozy pace - and The P might set the table for a setup closer. The problem is that the closers this year all seem to have moderate talent. 
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#2
03-23-2009, 09:05 AM
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nice post.
I learned something about Pioneerof the Nile from your post. before I even look at surface: DISTANCE?: Pamplemousse is so abjectly distance challenged that he shouldn't even be entered into the KD. His stamina index shows him to be about a miler at most, and his sire is Kafwain. Eliminated. Pioneerof the Nile is more geared towards being a miler, but his pedigree doesn't eliminate him. TALENT?: PtN has pretty good talent. He usually shows a good response and has a quick turn of foot. Fairly game. His last prep was really dull, so all the focus will be on the final prep for flashing more recent talent. SURFACE?: PtN should be fine on dirt. The difference that comes in with the switch to dirt is that over that light-synthetic turf at Santa Anita, everybody that has about the talent to be training in around 48 or 49 for 4f on dirt, is working in 6 or 7 on that synth in 1:13 or 1:26... That's if they don't push the horse! All the 6Furlong sprinters are stretching to a mile in the afternoons as if it was expected. I could see an increase in distance affecting PtN a tiny bit more over a dirt surface. RUNNING STYLE?: I think his off the pace style hurts him in the Derby, because with his pedigree stamina and talent being on the fence, it's going to be harder to close. He will flatten out and run 10th
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#3
03-23-2009, 10:38 AM
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Very Nice write up....
I don't think you can eliminate The Pamplemousse solely based on Pedigree ...prime example would be Smarty Jones...many people did not like him based on his pedigree and we all know what he did in the Derby
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#4
03-23-2009, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board in his next race
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#5
03-23-2009, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
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