Morning Line

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

look at golden gate race 3 today. the #6 is a ridiculous 8-1 m/l.

it's a bad line. no one is going to be influenced by it. the horse will go off at 5-2 or lower.

let me know if i was wrong.

5-1. bet it.

[hi_im_god]

i can't wait for this thread to disappear.

[ninetoone]

The morning line fave (6/5) got hammered down to 3/5 & ran 2nd. The winner was the third choice on the M/L at 4-1 and was an overlay at 6-1.

Your 6 looked like it went off at 4-something to one...so you were right about the bad line on that one.

[dean smith]

Once again, I'm not trying to ruffle anyone's feathers...

But what point are you trying to make about GG #3?

Yeah, chances were the 8/1 ML on #6 was going to go down since it's a seven horse field (two being coupled) with a scratch (leaving five betting choices)! And as I said earlier, the 6/5 ML fav did go lower (3/5 w/ Baze aboard -- no surprise there). The second choice stayed at 5/2, and the third choice went to 6/1 (from 4/1). Your boy #6 was liked more than the other 8/1, who took the place of the longshot who scratched.

So... the morning line had the correct short-odds fav, was dead-on with the second choice at 5/2, and in the ballpark with the third choice. As for it being a bad line, I don't know. Your boy #6 finished fifth, a length and a half behind the other ML 8/1, who went to post with longer odds but finished fourth.

Seems like a pretty good line to me that pretty well reflected the public's opinion. I sense you getting frustrated with me, but tell me what I'm missing.

[dean smith]

And let me repeat: Please don't think I'm trying to declare that the ML is always 100% accurate, but I don't think there can really be any doubt that it steers wagered money in certain directions.

[dean smith]

And also please understand: I'm not trying to crusade for the abolishment of morning lines. I think they're goddamned wonderful! I hope one day my daughter marries a morning line maker! I simply cannot say enough good things about morning lines! If lovin' morning lines is wrong, then I don't wanna be right! Etc. The only reason this thread even exists is because the subject of bad morning lines came up on the show and I was dumb enough to call in and ask a question that I've often wondered: In a parimutual system in which the odds are dictated by where the public bets their money, what is the purpose of having a morning line if it's meaningless other than to provide a cheat sheet for the public?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'd like to see you and Roller Doc argue about something. My head might explode watching it, but it'd be worth it.

[dean smith]

Why would I want to argue with Roller Doc?

He sounds like a great, great man.

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Do you comprehend how mentally deficient you'd have to be to botch the top three going into the Derby?

We the public were mentally deficient enough to make sweetnorthernsaint not only a top 3 choice, but a favorite!!