Whitney Day Stakes

[Gander]

This kind of reminds me of last year's race. A big field, no huge standout like a Curlin or Invasor. And what happened? One of the luke warm favorites (Lawyer Ron) set a track record and went off at a juicy 5/1. Commentator will be much lower than that, probably 8/5, but you spend all this time trying to come up with a clever alternative and watch, he'll win by the length of the stretch.

[Bobby Fischer]

wow i just played separate single win bets on Acai and Stepaside, and didn't play the double or pick3.

[Bobby Fischer]

Hats off to the old General Commentator.

[sumitas]

I salute the Commentator.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Cowtown Cat will finish in EXACTLY ninth place.

I overestimated him again. He was last....instead of just ninth.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

I'm curious how you played it. I thought this post made great sense, but half the rational was based on the assumption that Commentator would be overbet. With your estimate of a 25% to win, Commentator was well underbet. Were you tempted to switch gears and bet him? Or to simply pass on the race?

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm curious how you played it. I thought this post made great sense, but half the rational was based on the assumption that Commentator would be overbet. With your estimate of a 25% to win, Commentator was well underbet. Were you tempted to switch gears and bet him? Or to simply pass on the race?

--Dunbar

I was surprised he was that long but I pretty much stayed with my play.
I swapped out using Solar Flare and used Commentator with Notional. Aside from doing that, the only other things I did right was figuring Notional would be about 6-1 and I pressed my exbox with Student Council a bit based on the track condition. I was wrong about the pace, set up and my horse's trip.

Still, great to see Commentator win. Winning Grade 1's thee years apart really remarkable.

[King Glorious]

Watching this race pissed me off. Pissed me off with his connections more than anything. I've been saying for three years that Commentator didn't need to be in sprint races. I said years ago that he could not win a top level sprint race and that he should be running in races 8-9f all the time. He simply doesn't have the true sprinter speed to lead in top class sprints but he can more often than not, run routers off of their feet. Just as he did yesterday. I've said that I thought Commentator was one of the 10 best horses we've seen in the past decade. I wonder what his list of accomplishments would look like had they stuck with this course instead of wasting him in all of those sprints? It looks like Zito finally gets it though. He says he's really thinking about the Mass Cap next because it's a two-turn 9f race. Guess it's never too late for the old light bulb to go on. Which takes me to another question. Back in January, after Commentator won his comeback race, there was a discussion on what he should do next and other things. I had said on that thread that I was upset that they kept running him in sprints to with Andy said to me

"However, when a trainer has a substantial resume of success it seems a little presumptuous for any of us to think we know better than them."

For the most part, I think he's right. The overwhelming majority of the time, the connections that are with the horses know more about what's going on and what they need to do with their horses. But sometimes, they can be wrong. So is anyone else as pissed off as I am that we haven't been able to see Commentator in his best element over the past few seasons? Is anyone else as pissed off as I am that we've been deprived of seeing a very possible hall of fame career? After seeing him dominate yesterday and after seeing him beat a horse of the year three years ago in the Whitney, is anyone else wondering why it seems to have taken Zito so long to figure out what was pretty obvious to even some novice people like a few of us on here?

[Indian Charlie]

I'm not pissed off about it, but it was clear back in 2005 that he was a much better horse being used as a speed router than he was in the role of bang for the lead in sprints. That only worked in those wonderful Y bred races.

Funny thing though, if the idiot on Tasteyville rode his horse to win, Commentator would be relegated back to sprinting again.