DERBY WORKS (4/27): Col. John (:57.4), Fillies (:58+) in Hot Drills

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I couldn't win the Oaks, IMO, for her to be the one more likely to run in the derby is silly to me.

Why?? I know nothing about the horses. Perhaps Eight Belles is always more tired after her works than Proud Spell. Perhaps it does mean something, but I think you'd have to really know both fillies and their regular reactions to workouts to make any judgement based on these works. I think the reason Eight Belles is the one headed to the Derby is Eight Belles is quite a bit larger than Proud Spell, and Jones thinks she has more talent even if she perhaps isn't necessarily better than Proud Spell right now. Jones think she is the one more likely to run a "huge" race which would be needed by either to finish on the board in the Derby.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Scav

Friggin HARTY going 57.4......that just cost me a couple points from the people that think he COULDN'T handle the track.....

right on, i think this horse must be used though. i won't bet him to win because of the price. he is bred to be a beast on the dirt. when big brown sputters like i think he will this should be one of the horses that has dead aim. real dirt might make this horse even better !

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

right on, i think this horse must be used though. i won't bet him to win because of the price. he is bred to be a beast on the dirt. when big brown sputters like i think he will this should be one of the horses that has dead aim. real dirt might make this horse even better !

Agree with you guys. First reaction I was happy because he ran so well on the dirt, then I realized that workout will be splashed all over the place and he just got bet down a few points.

[philcski]

Big Truck with a nice spin this morning, 5F in 59.40.

His chances went from 0.1% to 0.2%.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Big Truck with a nice spin this morning, 5F in 59.40.

His chances went from 0.1% to 0.2%.

How exactly did this increase the chances of the current favorite for the Mike Lee?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How exactly did this increase the chances of the current favorite for the Mike Lee?

You actually think he's the favorite for the Mike Lee? I figured I'd get 5-1 on him in that race

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

All kidding aside, the NY bred 3 year olds look especially strong this year. Big Truck, Z Fortune, Giant Moon and Icabad Crane just to name a few. The Empire Classic could be some race this year.

Agreed- all kidding aside, I actually like Big Truck. Just not for the Derby...

Z Fortune does, however, rate a big shot to hit the board IMO. I don't know if he's actually good enough to win but a mile and a quarter will fit him well, his running style fits well to get a good trip, and his speed figures are certainly competitive.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

All kidding aside, the NY bred 3 year olds look especially strong this year. Big Truck, Z Fortune, Giant Moon and Icabad Crane just to name a few. The Empire Classic could be some race this year.

Cape of Storms will be there too.

[sumitas]

Indeed. We'll see who's entered in the Mike Lee. I don't think the Big Apple Triple has ever been won. $250,000 bonus. These races are in addition to the $250,000 Empire Classic of course.
http://www.nybreds.com/frames/FS_triple.html

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree that this is a strong group of NY Breds.

Maybe someone can explain to me logically, after the insanity of the Derby subsides, what exactly is so compelling about Z Fortune. If a straw falls in his path he wilts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree that this is a strong group of NY Breds.

Maybe someone can explain to me logically, after the insanity of the Derby subsides, what exactly is so compelling about Z Fortune. If a straw falls in his path he wilts.

Other than his Rebel, which admittedly was a terrible effort at 70 cents on the dollar, he really hasn't run a bad race. He's stepped forward in each effort otherwise (technically the Risen Star was a step back speedwise but I think we can attribute the figure to the glacial pace since every runner out of the race ran a higher # in their next start), and his Arkansas Derby was legitimately good- if he doesn't get such a wide trip there, he wins. His running style seems to fit my projected pace scenario, as well. He certainly isn't a spectacular talent, but he grinds out decent race after decent race and if you're looking for horses who can hit the board at 20-1 or higher I think he's the right one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't get what was good about his Arkansas Derby, but maybe I'm making the mistake of thinking it will take a good horse to be competitive in this year's Derby, as there appears to ultimately be a dearth of those.

To me, he benefited from a fast pace, had a good trip ( I don't particularly get worked up about wides ), and couldn't get by a distance challenged mediocrity who was involved in a solid pace. I guess I should wait for the pps on Wednesday but I hope there are better alternatives than him. I haven't liked a race he has run save perhaps his maiden win.

[philcski]

I don't think the pace was all that swift, merely average. I don't know Oaklawn well enough to project pace from one distance to another, but the Northern Spur went 1:11 3/5 to the 6F at a mile, so not much slower and those beasts were MUCH worse than the Ark Derby. If it was, perhaps you should credit Gayego more than it sounds like you want to- he did come home in a solid 12.7 seconds after that. That one looks more concerning at 10F, though.

The sad truth is there isn't much to look at beyond Big Brown, Colonel John, and Pyro.

[alysheba4]

man, i just hope most people try to outthink the obvious...... big brown should be 1-5.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

man, i just hope most people try to outthink the obvious...... big brown should be 1-5.

He hits the board I am smoked for the whole day.....

[alysheba4]

hey, its just 1 race.......there will be about 25 more to get it back

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

He hits the board I am smoked for the whole day.....

How bout you listen to your uncle Phil, who says forget trying to beat him in every wager and take what's available?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

man, i just hope most people try to outthink the obvious...... big brown should be 1-5.

Let's hope you're kidding.

Excuse me for missing the obvious....it's Derbytime and people are prone to make even the most inane comments seriously.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Scav

He hits the board I am smoked for the whole day.....

SCAV I am with you..if he does I'll be heading over to SCORES - but the lap dances will be few....and the tips in coinage.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

How bout you listen to your uncle Phil, who says forget trying to beat him in every wager and take what's available?

Uncle?? we are like the same age I thought.

BIG BROWN GOES DOWN!!