Harlem Rocker

[hockey2315]

Hope you're right . . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Harlem Rocker went 3 1/5 faster than the horses in the 4th race, which is around 40 points, maybe 42, so assuming the track didn't change that race got a 66 or so....which probably makes sense especially considering the trouble the winner of that race had at the start.

[hockey2315]

Not sure if you're replying to me - but I was referring to the Preakness thing - not questioning the fig. 106 sounds about right to me. . . Obviously VERY early to speculate on but I wonder how hard he'd get bet in the Preakness with such a high fig.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not sure if you're replying to me - but I was referring to the Preakness thing - not questioning the fig. 106 sounds about right to me. . . Obviously VERY early to speculate on but I wonder how hard he'd get bet in the Preakness with such a high fig.

I was just pontificating into space.

I guess it depends what happens next Saturday. However, considering what we've seen already, and also considering Harlem Rocker has high profile connections, he can't be too big a price.

What did Red Bullet pay in the Preakness....6:1?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not sure if you're replying to me - but I was referring to the Preakness thing - not questioning the fig. 106 sounds about right to me. . . Obviously VERY early to speculate on but I wonder how hard he'd get bet in the Preakness with such a high fig.

Not hard at all... the last two sharp winners of the Withers that went on to the Preakness (Scrappy T, Bernardini) went off at 20-1 and 12-1, respectively. If you like him that day, you will get a decent price.

I think people forget how well Scrappy T ran in the Preakness because of the collision with Alex and the ensuing amazing recovery- he blasted the front runners and had a clear lead at the top of the stretch. What an incredible race that was!!!

[blackthroatedwind]

He's about as likely to be double digit odds if he goes in the Preakness as I am to dunk on LeBron.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I was just pontificating into space.

I guess it depends what happens next Saturday. However, considering what we've seen already, and also considering Harlem Rocker has high profile connections, he can't be too big a price.

What did Red Bullet pay in the Preakness....6:1?

6-1

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not hard at all... the last two sharp winners of the Withers that went on to the Preakness (Scrappy T, Bernardini) went off at 20-1 and 12-1, respectively. If you like him that day, you will get a decent price.

I think people forget how well Scrappy T ran in the Preakness because of the collision with Alex and the ensuing amazing recovery- he blasted the front runners and had a clear lead at the top of the stretch. What an incredible race that was!!!

I know ... I bet Scrappy to win that day. I was pissed that he didn't win, but then I was happy to see such a great race. Alex displayed amazing athleticism that day ...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's about as likely to be double digit odds if he goes in the Preakness as I am to dunk on LeBron.

I'll get you a trampoline.

Agree though- I'm guessing 6-1 to 8-1 is about right.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's about as likely to be double digit odds if he goes in the Preakness as I am to dunk on LeBron.

Too funny ...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I know ... I bet Scrappy to win that day. I was pissed that he didn't win, but then I was happy to see such a great race. Alex displayed amazing athleticism that day ...

It happened right in front of me... I still can't believe it to this day he actually stayed up. Looking at the photo in "The Greatest 100 Moments in Racing History" right now actually. Had a big exacta box Alex-Scrappy so I was happy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'll get you a trampoline.

Agree though- I'm guessing 6-1 to 8-1 is about right.

The only way he will be that high is if someone explodes in the Derby...and even then.

Red Bullet got drowned by FuPeg in the Wood, FuPeg jogged in the Derby, and yet Red Bullet was still 6:1. It's probably not unfair to compare most of this year's Derby to FuPeg's competition.....but Harlem Rocker will be coming to the Preakness ( at least theoretically ) with a very hefty fig...and Todd Pletcher's hefty profile.

Honestly, unless Big Brown dominates the Derby, this horse could be 4:1. Close your eyes, and think about this........everyone will love him. I'm regretting starting this thread already.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

It happened right in front of me... I still can't believe it to this day he actually stayed up. Looking at the photo in "The Greatest 100 Moments in Racing History" right now actually. Had a big exacta box Alex-Scrappy so I was happy.

I bet!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The only way he will be that high is if someone explodes in the Derby...and even then.

Red Bullet got drowned by FuPeg in the Wood, FuPeg jogged in the Derby, and yet Red Bullet was still 6:1. It's probably not unfair to compare most of this year's Derby to FuPeg's competition.....but Harlem Rocker will be coming to the Preakness ( at least theoretically ) with a very hefty fig...and Todd Pletcher's hefty profile.

Honestly, unless Big Brown dominates the Derby, this horse could be 4:1. Close your eyes, and think about this........everyone will love him. I'm regretting starting this thread already.

Red Bullet was also trained by Orseno... a fine horseman but not exactly a high profile guy.

Nah, this thread was warranted- keep in mind the people on here are sharp and see all the angles relative to the Preakness public, which has a strong favoring towards horses that ran in the Derby (which was the point of my note on Scrappy T and Bernardini, both who came in with similar Withers results as Harlem Rocker, albeit against stronger Preakness fields).

[the_fat_man]

While I was impressed by the horse's first two races, especially the second, when he ran down a loose Samba Rooster, I'm not as quick as some to make him a strong Preakness contender for a number of reasons:

1) This was the 1st time he was actually behind and between horses, and he seemed to have difficulty with this; on the backstretch, early, his footwork was off, and he might've been on the wrong lead

2) He was worked over in the stretch alot more than his previous races and while he showed signs of wanting to drift in in the previous races, while nonetheless running straight in the lane, today, he drifted in badly late, having to be pulled off by Coa, and switched back lefty late, as well ---not exactly signs of a horse that wins easily

So, while the race was a new experience for him (running behind horses), he also seemed to take a step back in terms of footwork. Going two turns might present a new challenge for him.

Moreover, I don't think the runner up wants a mile and that ridiculous 1st qtr says as much negatively about the runner up as it does positively about the winner.

[hockey2315]

He was definitely green . . . may have room for improvement. . .

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I know ... I bet Scrappy to win that day. I was pissed that he didn't win, but then I was happy to see such a great race. Alex displayed amazing athleticism that day ...

By the way, did you know he's still running??

I was gonna say.

The horse has yet to go two turns.
He has run down some very fast paces.


I do like how he can relax behind horses well
for only 3 races. And he has had an easy time
at the end basically cruising home without effort.

Two turns... Seems to me you gotta see that first.
Or the others are just so weak...

[Linny]

Hard to speculate as to his Preakness odds today. It all depends on next Sat. If someone dominates (BB maybe or possibly a resurgent Pyro? Col. John decides he loves dirt?) he gets "the aura" of invincibility. Bernardini was a big price because he was taking on the second coming of Man O' War in Barbaro, who had by then already been canonized. (2000 was the same w/FuPeg and RB.)

I do however see this as more of a chaos Derby (like Giacomo's or Charismatic's) which could yield an oddball winner thus lowering the price on Harlem Rocker in the Preakness.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

By the way, did you know he's still running??

Yep, he's still in my stable mail.