Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-15-2008, 12:24 PM
brianwspencer's Avatar
brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,894
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
Thanks, Steve, for the great news that the third of my four Future bets might not make it into the Derby. After making Future bets for the first time this year, I think I'll go back to not making 'em (too much unnecessary stress).
This is the first year I've ever played a future wager because I always hated the way Churchill did their pool and never felt like I could get the odds I wanted. Was in Vegas for the HPWS and decided to play one. Granted, I feel like sort of an idiot right now because I am stuck with Cowboy Cal at only 50-1. I was hoping he wouldn't be such a crapshoot come Derby time, but at least he got in so I have the action.

I guess that's why I find it fun this year. I imagine, had I gone with my original thought of playing Unbridled Vicar at 200-1 after he ran second to Denis of Cork, I would be having much less fun with it right now like you are.

I'm with Scav -- at least I've got action, and anything can happen I guess.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-16-2008, 12:43 AM
Unstable Unstable is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Los Angeles, California
Posts: 475
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
This is the first year I've ever played a future wager because I always hated the way Churchill did their pool and never felt like I could get the odds I wanted. Was in Vegas for the HPWS and decided to play one. Granted, I feel like sort of an idiot right now because I am stuck with Cowboy Cal at only 50-1. I was hoping he wouldn't be such a crapshoot come Derby time, but at least he got in so I have the action.

I guess that's why I find it fun this year. I imagine, had I gone with my original thought of playing Unbridled Vicar at 200-1 after he ran second to Denis of Cork, I would be having much less fun with it right now like you are.

I'm with Scav -- at least I've got action, and anything can happen I guess.
I was hoping to get all my Future bet horses in the race, even if they didn't look like the obvious winner (higher odds). The one horse I bet in Pool 1 is out of there. But two of the three horses I bet in Pool 2 are in, with a possibility of the third, depending on what happens this week-end. I didn't bet much, so it's no great loss. And I have to admit that, once I knew that they were in, it was pretty fun. Every time someone talks about one of "my horses" having a shot, I get a little excited.

I think I'll try to limit myself next year (assuming there is still a Future bet) to what worked this year: bet horses that run the week-end after the close of Pool 2. That way the odds are still big and the bandwagon is relatively empty.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-24-2008, 04:54 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,991
Default

You can expect Behindatthebar to run now as it appears yet another major share of him has been sold (est. $2MM) and the new connections intend to run. Todd Pletcher, who would prefer to wait until Preakness with him, has told CD to put him back on the 'probable' list.


1 Pyro 1,020,000
2 Tale of Ekati 738,000
3 Colonel John 720,000
4 Gayego 640,000
5 Big Brown 600,000

6 Z Humor 579,000
7 Monba 515,000
8 Court Vision 331,872
9 Z Fortune 329,000
10 Adriano 310,000

11 Recapturetheglory 300,000
12 Smooth Air 290,000
13 Cool Coal Man 212,767
14 Anak Nakal 212,216
15 Eight Belles (f) 210,000

16 Cowboy Cal 207,660
17 Behindatthebar 204,500
18 Visionaire 202,500
19 Big Truck 194,500
20 Bob Black Jack 180,000

21 Denis of Cork 165,000
22 Halo Najib $157,996
23 Indian Sun $154,000
24 Tomcito $151,292
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 04-25-2008 at 06:04 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-24-2008, 05:02 AM
zippyneedsawin's Avatar
zippyneedsawin zippyneedsawin is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,064
Default

My feelings on this are that it's a shame if a colt or two that would run if entered gets shut out.. but I think CD created it's own problem.. that is if the officials at Churchill even care.
I think the owners of the fillies have every right to cross-enter since it's within the rules.. I don't like it.. but it's their right.
BBJ and Denis of Cork (the two horse now at #21 & #22) have a much better chance of winning the KY Derby, IMO, than the fillies.
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-24-2008, 08:07 AM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

It is folly to ever assume that someone with an eligible horse will opt out of the Derby.

Sanan bought Behindatthebar this spring for a reason, and it wasn't to run in the Lexington.
__________________
RIP Monroe.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-24-2008, 08:12 AM
slotdirt's Avatar
slotdirt slotdirt is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,894
Default

The bigger problem, IMHO, is the gamesmanship of the system by some owners. And by some owners I mean Fox Hill Farm. Someone at CD should be leaning on Rick Porter VERY heavily making the point that in the next few days, he needs to decide whether to fish or cut bait.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-25-2008, 06:03 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,991
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
It is folly to ever assume that someone with an eligible horse will opt out of the Derby.

Sanan bought Behindatthebar this spring for a reason, and it wasn't to run in the Lexington.
Sanan actually was OK with not running in the Derby with this horse and waiting for Baltimore. With the prospective new partner coming into the mix for a reported $2MM, the scenario changed.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-27-2008, 05:44 PM
henschwar45 henschwar45 is offline
Yearling
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: COLUMBIA, SC
Posts: 6
Wink Dennis of Quark

steve,
do you see a horse like Cowboy Cal scratching out of top 20 and Dennis of Quark getting in? i live here in SC And really enjoy the program on sirius and the trrrn. I work at Churchill during Derby week and would like to meet you if
possible. I am a mutuel clerk for the last 17 years here at Derby Time. I own my own insurance agency the rest of the year.. also will you be doing dailt picks next week from churchill?

Henry
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-27-2008, 08:46 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,991
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by henschwar45
steve,

do you see a horse like Cowboy Cal scratching out of top 20 and Dennis of Quark getting in? i live here in SC And really enjoy the program on sirius and the trrrn. I work at Churchill during Derby week and would like to meet you if
possible. I am a mutuel clerk for the last 17 years here at Derby Time. I own my own insurance agency the rest of the year.. also will you be doing dailt picks next week from churchill?

Henry
H,

I don't think anyone will demure from the field without an injury. Denis of Cork looks more and more doubtful right now and it's tough to swallow given that he looks as good as any horse out on the track these last several days...

Thx for listening to ATR.. Glad you enjoy it and would be happy to meet at the Downs this week. Lots of DT there too. Will look at the P4's at CD and the Oaks/Derby cards. Tough this week with tons going on though. HOL carry Wednesday has to be covered too.

See you at CD!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:54 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.