Latest Future Odds for Derby 2008

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would rather take a shot with two dudes in a horse suit than that horse.

classic

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

* Flying First Class - facile 106 Beyer sprint win - big sprint pedigree - was instantly stretched out to two turns and beaten soundly while favored over Curlin.

Damn, where was I to get some of that money? What pools are you playing?

[declansharbor]

50$ Cowboy Cal
10$ Etched
5$ Into Mischief/Maimonades
10$ Coal Play
10$ Double Down Vinman (my homer pick, no real shot at winning)
10$ Blackberry Road

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would rather take a shot with two dudes in a horse suit than that horse.

Well basically....yeah.
In a related matter, I think one of the sometimes overlooked ways to do these future wagers is to do the same sort of pedigree analysis someone might do for a 2yo MSW. Look at the horse's pedigree and in addition to looking at the horse's stamina influences (which everybody does) try to see if this horse is likely to be fast developer. Giant Moon is a perfect example. His dam-side pedigree is tailor made to produce a horse that is a fast-developer. The three stallions in the most important positions in his dam-side pedigree (Capote, Deputy Minister, and Lord Durham) were ALL 2yo champions. Capote, meanwhile demonstrated ability to sire precocious 2yos (Boston Harbor etc).
His sire, meanwhile (Giant's Causeway) is a very versatile sire, but he too was a G1 winner at 2, and some of his very best runners have been top-notch 2yos (Shamardal, First Samurai etc).
So basically Giant Moon has a pedigree which indicates that it is LIKELY that this horse will - if he has any ability at all - be good as a 2yo. That is good news if you are looking at him in a 2yo MSW, but in my opinion makes him a bad bet in a future pool. Obviously this pedigree does not preclude him from continuing to improve in the months ahead, but it does mean that he is more likely to have already reached his peak than a colt whose pedigree is less geared towards early development. Now in Giant Moon's case, there is also the tiny matter of him not being very fast. I use him here just as an example.
I don't really play futures, but if I did, my advice would be to only play horses that are very long odds, that seem likely to be able to go 9f and beyond, and whose pedigree hints that they are not likely to have already reached their peak.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well basically....yeah.
In a related matter, I think one of the sometimes overlooked ways to do these future wagers is to do the same sort of pedigree analysis someone might do for a 2yo MSW. Look at the horse's pedigree and in addition to looking at the horse's stamina influences (which everybody does) try to see if this horse is likely to be fast developer. Giant Moon is a perfect example. His dam-side pedigree is tailor made to produce a horse that is a fast-developer. The three stallions in the most important positions in his dam-side pedigree (Capote, Deputy Minister, and Lord Durham) were ALL 2yo champions. Capote, meanwhile demonstrated ability to sire precocious 2yos (Boston Harbor etc).
His sire, meanwhile (Giant's Causeway) is a very versatile sire, but he too was a G1 winner at 2, and some of his very best runners have been top-notch 2yos (Shamardal, First Samurai etc).
So basically Giant Moon has a pedigree which indicates that it is LIKELY that this horse will - if he has any ability at all - be good as a 2yo. That is good news if you are looking at him in a 2yo MSW, but in my opinion makes him a bad bet in a future pool. Obviously this pedigree does not preclude him from continuing to improve in the months ahead, but it does mean that he is more likely to have already reached his peak than a colt whose pedigree is less geared towards early development. Now in Giant Moon's case, there is also the tiny matter of him not being very fast. I use him here just as an example.
I don't really play futures, but if I did, my advice would be to only play horses that are very long odds, that seem likely to be able to go 9f and beyond, and whose pedigree hints that they are not likely to have already reached their peak.

When they finally get around to putting on the grass we shall see his truest potential because GC is a much better turf sire than dirt sire, especially with non 2 year olds. The list of accomplished GC dirt horses at age 3 and older is very short as compared to the list of turf horses.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

$60 ON CROWN OF THORNS,$40 ON COUNTRY STAR



Actually,I'd put the whole $100 on the horse related to TIAGO("ALONZO"..I THINK).Don't see odds though(so if can't get odds then i'd go with these 2.) Don't know if any of the 3 are still healthy.I'm sure these geeks will know.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Damn, where was I to get some of that money? What pools are you playing?

Flying First Class was favored over Curlin in the Rebel - look it up.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Flying First Class was favored over Curlin in the Rebel - look it up.

Albarado stalked the leaders with Curlin in fourth early as Xchanger flew out of the gate to lead the field by himself through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 3/5 and 1:12 2/5. The 9-5 favorite Flying First Class, also coming off a flashy maiden win, was a bit rank early but stayed close to the leader and took over on the final turn for Edgar Prado. But Flying First Class had nothing left for the stretch run. Curlin broke with the second flight of horses, settled behind the leaders, and swept up to the them while four wide and getting out on the final turn. Curlin got the lead at the top of the stretch and kicked clear while under strong handling as he drew off late.

He paid $6.40, $4, and $3.40


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38046

[Bobby Fischer]

More underlays than overlays. Maybe could narrow it down and dutch 5 for a profit on a small wager, but no one is really a lock at this point. Top choices are Court Vision and Monba so far, but it's way to early. Have to watch these others.


EDIT

ATONED -13
COURT VISION -39
COWBOY CAL -13
MONBA -25
VISIONAIRE -10
$100 TOTAL

[Bobby Fischer]

biggest underlay would have to be Into Mischief.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would rather take a shot with two dudes in a horse suit than that horse.

Rather harsh opinion IMO... he hasn't proven to be exceptionally fast yet but he's also done zero wrong and none of this crop has proven anything yet, outside of War Pass.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by wac

i hate only 40/1 on Monba but based on his race in the cashcall i will probably be putting some money on him in the first pool of the Derby futures as i loved the way he closed into good fractions at the end of that race and it appeared that the track played pretty fair that day not dominated by one type or the other and i think his breeding has some potential for a KD winner.

I've seen 60/1 somewhere.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'd put $50 on Cowboy Cal at 75-1 and $50 on Unbridled Vicar at 250-1

NT

Interesting thought. I've liked that a horse a bit since the Arlington meet. If Mad Flatter runs well enough in the Lecomte, it would make that guy a whole lot more attractive.

I love the price, but would still love to see him run a "fast" race. He seems to be on the improve, no doubt, but he has yet to run a race that indicates that he's in the same league as any of the division leaders, and I feel like he's had a few good chances to do so.

With THAT said, I suppose that's why you get 250-1 on him...and I liked his last race an awful lot.

Now that you've got me thinking about it, maybe I'll put some money on that when I'm in Vegas in a few weeks.

[Round Pen]

Best horse you have never heard of Miner's Claim (150-1). But soon you all will know him.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Flying First Class was favored over Curlin in the Rebel - look it up.

You're right. It was the middle of the night. As I was walking this morning it came to me that they met in the Rebel as well as the Arkansas Derby. The fact that I took Curlin at 5:2 that day only further goes to show how brain dead I am. Then again, I'm a SMALL bettor.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Nothing on that board looks interesting to me right now.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Nothing on that board looks interesting to me right now.

alot of the horse on the board can't get 7 furlongs, much less 10.

[Hoist Her Flag]

The Futures are great, anything 100-1 or more is worth a shot. Still some horses with talent and pedigrees at 100-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

alot of the horse on the board can't get 7 furlongs, much less 10.

I know - if I thought Noble Lad could get atleast a mile - I'd stab at the 200/1 with him.

200/1 is just not quite tempting enough - at least when you're dealing with a still unraced 3yo maiden, who missed his most recent work, and has a highly speed oriented pedigree.

There's really nothing out there that has me interested right now.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know - if I thought Noble Lad could get atleast a mile - I'd stab at the 200/1 with him.

200/1 is just not quite tempting enough - at least when you're dealing with a still unraced 3yo maiden, who missed his most recent work, and has a highly speed oriented pedigree.

There's really nothing out there that has me interested right now.

You keep up with unraced horses better than anyone. Its amazing.