Should Have

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't know about that. In the same way BTW is saying that Dehere might have had trouble running down the lone speed in 1993, Sunday Silence and EG might have had trouble running down the lone speed of King Glorious in 1989. No doubt that at 10f, it would have taken a huge effort on KG's part but with him having shown he could handle an off track in the Hollywood Futurity, I would have liked my chances going in if I were Hollendorfer and McCarron. Lone speed is a strong equalizer. Winning Colors, War Emblem, Go for Gin were all able to win it when most people expected they wouldn't last. Hard Spun, Lion Heart, Indian Charlie and Peace Rules didn't win but hung in a lot longer than expected.

Saying that he wouldn't have had any chance in the '89 TC races isn't really a knock on KG at all. While I remain highly skeptical of his ability to ever get 10f effectively, the bigger issue is the fact that the crop that year produced two of the best true 10f horses of the last 25 years....and he wasn't one of them.
Do horses like War Emblem sometimes win the Derby as the lone speed? Of course, but it is one thing to do it with Proud Citizen chasing you home, and an altogether different proposition when the two horses trying to get by you are Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

[miraja2]

Am I the only one looking forward to reading the book, The 2007 Kentucky Derby: A Comprehensive Analysis, by The Indomitable DrugS?
I think it will be a good one, but the 600 page length might be a bit daunting for some.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Saying that he wouldn't have had any chance in the '89 TC races isn't really a knock on KG at all. While I remain highly skeptical of his ability to ever get 10f effectively, the bigger issue is the fact that the crop that year produced two of the best true 10f horses of the last 25 years....and he wasn't one of them.
Do horses like War Emblem sometimes win the Derby as the lone speed? Of course, but it is one thing to do it with Proud Citizen chasing you home, and an altogether different proposition when the two horses trying to get by you are Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

What you say here is absolutely correct. There's almost no question that they would have turned out to be better and more natural 10f runners than KG was. I just feel like KG would have opened up 6-8 on them coming around the turn and that might have been just enough to hold them off.

[otisotisotis]

don't remember the year, but i thought Buddha had an outstanding chance.

[miraja2]

Stuff like this is impossible to know for sure but I would go with Gilded Time in 1993. The undefeated 2yo champ with a dam-side pedigree that suggested he might like 10f was injured while preparing for his 3yo campaign in SoCal.
I don't think he was the second coming of Affirmed or anything, but neither was that year's winner, Sea Hero.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

don't remember the year, but i thought Buddha had an outstanding chance.

2002, and I disagree (even though I love his trainer), Buddha was a pretty sorry excuse for a Derby favorite (almost as bad as the actual ML favorite, Harlan's Holiday.)

Devil's Bag was the one I'll always lament.

[philcski]

Also, before my time but Key to the Mint was probably the winner in '72 had he gone in the Derby.

I'm also glad no one has said Bernardini yet, because he wasn't winning the Derby at that point in his career last year.

[King Glorious]

Thanks for reminding me. Add Bernardini to my list. I don't see why he couldn't have won it. He was good enough to win the Preakness two weeks later. I know, I know. I thought he was good enough to win the Preakness anyway though so I don't think two weeks earlier, he wouldn't have been able to beat Barbaro.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Devil's Bag was the one I'll always lament.

Devils Bag was done well before that Derby. Now, if the 2YO Devils Bag showed up......

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Thanks for reminding me. Add Bernardini to my list. I don't see why he couldn't have won it. He was good enough to win the Preakness two weeks later. I know, I know. I thought he was good enough to win the Preakness anyway though so I don't think two weeks earlier, he wouldn't have been able to beat Barbaro.

He needed that Withers start. No way he would have been ready for the Derby off a maiden win- you don't seriously believe he could have beaten Barbaro do you? The Preakness is a different race, and (unfortunately) it fell into his hands after Barbaro went down.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Devils Bag was done well before that Derby. Now, if the 2YO Devils Bag showed up......

Yeah, I know. I remember waiting for the newspaper to show up the next day to find out what he did in the race before the Flamingo (Everglades I think?) and when he was kind of average I was disappointed, then the terrible performance in the Flamingo... still, something was wrong and if he had made it healthy to Churchill he would have destroyed that field.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Dehere would have had trouble running down the loose speed. His only decent effort going two turns was in the Fountain of Youth which was orchestrated by a crazy speed duel involving Holy Bull ( who actually did flip his palate ) and, I think, Ride the Rails. He may well have been essentially a closing sprinter.

As for Java Gold, I'm a huge fan, but it's not as though Alysheba and Bet Twice were slouches. While he obviously hammered them in the Travers, the track was a quagmire that day, and it's fair to say they didn't run their races. Considering the kind of horse Alysheba proved to be it's a little unfair to just assume Java Gold was better.

The horse that sticks out IMO is AP Indy who was scratched with a foot problem very close to the race.

As much as I believe JG was the best of that group, that year would have been the hardest year to win it because it was the deepest group of 3yos I've ever seen. Same goes with KG. I thought he was the best one but it's hard to put him over EG and Sunday Silence at 10f.