National Pride

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Scav

I don't even know what happened with Peace Rules, but I do know that there are a couple trainers that try and claim off of Contessa and Dutrow and they don't improve at all. It is like trying to claim off of Catalano around here, I have seen someone successful at it maybe twice in the last three years. Just don't even bother

Claiming horses and prospective 2yo's are completely different animals...Peace Rules ran well for Frankel, I don't know what came of him other than I believe I saw some of his weanlings going through the sales this year. To BTW's point - he has sold other 2yo's (actually 3yo's) that never panned out - Sunshine Alpine comes to mind, as well as Harborage...Don't know what that has to do with Contessa as a trainer...They were both raced well into their 3yo campaign....He has a large stable because he doesn't get near the stock that the big boys get, and has a whale of an eye for value at the sales

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Claiming horses and prospective 2yo's are completely different animals...Peace Rules ran well for Frankel, I don't know what came of him other than I believe I saw some of his weanlings going through the sales this year. To BTW's point - he has sold other 2yo's (actually 3yo's) that never panned out - Sunshine Alpine comes to mind, as well as Harborage...Don't know what that has to do with Contessa as a trainer...They were both raced well into their 3yo campaign....He has a large stable because he doesn't get near the stock that the big boys get, and has a whale of an eye for value at the sales

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

I wasn't implying anything, just that it is impossible to improve claimed stock off of trainers like Contessa, Dutrow and Catalano, there are many others that I just can't think of right now. William White comes to mind in Florida.

[blackthroatedwind]

Here is a list of Gary Contessa's winning firsters over the last 12 months....

11 wins from 68 starters for a 3.05 ROI but that includes Saturday's $86 winner.

National Pride and the aforementioned Another Foose obviously haven't run back. Here are the other nine and what happened to them. I will start with the best.

Mission Approved - broke maiden March 10th and has subsequently become a stakes winner on the turf. Won multiple turf races.

Brown Eyed Belle - broke her maiden December first and did not race again for over five months. She has subsequently won 2 races ( out of six or seven ).

Gansevoort - broke maiden December 9th, returned to win again on Jan 18th and has been unsighted since.

Motovato - 2YO winner at Delaware on May 5th. Bought by Gann and given to Todd Pletcher. Raced in Churchill stake on July 7th where he finished 5th at 3:1. Unsighted since.

Citi On Fire - broke maiden March 25th in NY Bred MSW, finished near last in two subsequent starts, left Contessa and was last seen racing in $4K claiming races at Finger Lakes and Penn National with minimal success.

Wheelit - broke maiden March 30th. Claimed May 4th for $14K and last seen running in $4K claiming races at Finger Lakes.

Keen Irish - broke maiden August 15th. Returned to finish third on September 8th and unsighted since.

Deities Day - broke maiden October 11th. Unsighted since.

He's a Ray - broke maiden in MSW January 20th. Unsighted since.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

I'm really not trying to infer anything. It's just that, to me, it seems that the horses he has had that have won their first starts have not done particularly well down the road and have often gone through lengthy layoffs. Now, to be fair, this is probably the case for many trainers ( if not most ), as getting horses to win first time often takes an enormous toll on them. And, National Pride could easily be an exception, as other than Long Boat Home, or something like that, few have been very fast. But, even that horse made only three more starts, all good, before disappearing for almost two years now.

Actually, trainers have been reasonably successful claiming from Gary over the last few years, and way moreso than claiming from Bruce Levine or Mike Hushion ( two guys who no sane person should ever claim from if you believe stats ).

[pmacdaddy]

Is there a source of those type of stats?

I know DRF PP's gives win % first claim, but I find the opposite just as valuable (or more). Currently rely on anecdotal info (look unfavorably on horses moving from Dutrow, Contessa, Levine, etc).

God only knows how screwed up my impressions are, especially outside of NY...

[blackthroatedwind]

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Is there a source of those type of stats?

I know DRF PP's gives win % first claim, but I find the opposite just as valuable (or more). Currently rely on anecdotal info (look unfavorably on horses moving from Dutrow, Contessa, Levine, etc).

God only knows how screwed up my impressions are, especially outside of NY...

You can look all this stuff up on Formulator.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm really not trying to infer anything. It's just that, to me, it seems that the horses he has had that have won their first starts have not done particularly well down the road and have often gone through lengthy layoffs. Now, to be fair, this is probably the case for many trainers ( if not most ), as getting horses to win first time often takes an enormous toll on them. And, National Pride could easily be an exception, as other than Long Boat Home, or something like that, few have been very fast. But, even that horse made only three more starts, all good, before disappearing for almost two years now.

Actually, trainers have been reasonably successful claiming from Gary over the last few years, and way moreso than claiming from Bruce Levine or Mike Hushion ( two guys who no sane person should ever claim from if you believe stats ).

Considering the stock he has, it's unreasonable to expect that many (if not most) have trouble with winners. You'd have to agree that he's been fairly successful taking horses off Dutrow et al. for a lot of his claiming clients. As you pointed out, many have run late into their campaigns before breaking...I personally have one that has been with him since January and just broke in October (one of the Hundai King of Albany's wunderkin)...Needless to say he does what he does....I know he was very high on He's Our Ray but believe he suffered a tendon or some other suspensory problem...I'll be glad to find out about the others

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes, I understand and agree it's hard for the cheap winners to win back, but out of the nine possible returnees at least five, and maybe six, have gone on extended sabaticals. Brown Eyed Belle was gone five months, He's a Ray ten months, Keen Irish made one subsequent start and has now been out three months, Gansevoort ran back in six weeks and has now been gone over ten months, Motovato was purchased, returned in two months, and has been unsighted for almost five months and Deities Day hasn't been seen in over six weeks since his big win.

I realize this is a small sample but, to me, it's not very encouraging.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

Now I would say you've covered it thanks

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can look all this stuff up on Formulator.

Thanks. Have to check that out...

[Rudeboyelvis]

Yes, it's a very small sample considering he's had close to 400 head come and go through his barn since the first of the year. Thanks for your objective candor, it's refreshing to read.

I agree completely with you about the frustrating prespective relative to the player, I guess it keeps things intereresting..He tries a lot of different angles with underperforming horses; quickly back after a poor effort, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, sprint to route , etc. Tough to guage.

[Linny]

I am not sure statisticaly but I would guess that his record with "first out to future success" is no better or worse than most. This I would believe especially if you take out the "elite" types like the multi million $$$ babies that guys like Pletcher etc get.
When he does get a decent horse (Gansevoort was pretty well regarded last winter and Mayan King from a few years ago may have been his) he does OK. I remember Mission Approved's win. He would have been 30-1 had he not had an entrymate with a decent start or two under his belt. I think he bucked shins which is VERY common after a strenuous first out win.
The fact is that guys like Todd and Rick Violette and McLaughlin see horses sidelined off debut maiden wins all the time. The difference is that most of those guys start out with better quality stock. It's fair to say that given the cost of his stock, overall that Gary does OK with young stock.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm just focusing on his relatively recent first time starters that won as that is the category National Pride falls under.

The two horrid purchases Paul Reddam made, Marquis Diamond ( who performed abyssmally in two subsequent starts and hasn't been seen since March ) and Barcola, were simply bad buys and whoever advised Mr. Reddam did a poor job of research. Both of those horses were bought off high Beyer figures ( Marquis Diamond an 83 and Barcola around a 114 ) earned when loose on enormous inside speed biases on the inner dirt. I feel I can say this now because I said it then on Byk's show.

From the perspective of Contessa's owners he did a great job in the case of both of those horses. If National Pride has indeed been sold for a substantial amount of money it is frankly another feather in his cap......and yet another good example ( at least for Gary ) as to why nobody should listen to me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

I am not sure statisticaly but I would guess that his record with "first out to future success" is no better or worse than most. This I would believe especially if you take out the "elite" types like the multi million $$$ babies that guys like Pletcher etc get.
When he does get a decent horse (Gansevoort was pretty well regarded last winter and Mayan King from a few years ago may have been his) he does OK. I remember Mission Approved's win. He would have been 30-1 had he not had an entrymate with a decent start or two under his belt. I think he bucked shins which is VERY common after a strenuous first out win.
The fact is that guys like Todd and Rick Violette and McLaughlin see horses sidelined off debut maiden wins all the time. The difference is that most of those guys start out with better quality stock. It's fair to say that given the cost of his stock, overall that Gary does OK with young stock.

Both Gansevoort and Mayan King have suffered through significant layoffs and back up my claims.

I agree about the guys you mentioned ( though I don't think Rick Violette necessarily belongs with Todd and Kiaran ) but would be interested to see you post specifics concerning their maiden breakers.

[Rudeboyelvis]

My response was to post #26

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

But I understand where you are coming from. That said, Bill Kaplan purchased 3 horses from Ocala for less then 100k combined - all three were in the Derby and none have been heard from since (unless you count Imwildandcrazyguy or whatever his name is, who's done nothing)

EDIT: Storm in May and I'mawildandcrazyguy were in the Derby....I knew he had another on the Trail but can't recolect the name...

[Linny]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Both Gansevoort and Mayan King have suffered through significant layoffs and back up my claims.

I agree about the guys you mentioned ( though I don't think Rick Violette necessarily belongs with Todd and Kiaran ) but would be interested to see you post specifics concerning their maiden breakers.

I'd have to research their stats. I added Violette because he generally has well meant firsters, not so much because they are in the same price range or class level as TAP and KM. He spans the gap between those two and a guy like Gary.

I suppose what would be needed is detailed follow up on ever first out winner in NY over the course of at least a year. That way you'd have several class levels covered. I think it's fair to say that far more is expected of the "typical" Spa maiden breaker than anything Gary saddles in November at AQU. I'd be curious to see what their overall records are.

Great, now I've established a project for myself and I'll end up overloading my damn stablemail with names of horses I'll never see again.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Linny

Great, now I've established a project for myself and I'll end up overloading my damn stablemail with names of horses I'll never see again.

Way to go, Linny

[ArlJim78]

I know Gann bought Medaglia D'Oro after a couple of starts or so. Anyone remember who had him first?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I know Gann bought Medaglia D'Oro after a couple of starts or so. Anyone remember who had him first?

I want to say Ron Moffett but I could be completely wrong. I'll see if I can dig it up.