|
|
 |
|
#21
10-07-2007, 03:29 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine 
|
|
#22
10-07-2007, 03:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I don't have rules. I handicap the races and look for horses that make sense to me. I'm obviously in the minority.
|
|
#23
10-07-2007, 03:40 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
|
|
#24
10-07-2007, 03:55 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#25
10-07-2007, 04:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#26
10-07-2007, 04:06 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#27
10-07-2007, 04:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
I'm not endorsing War Pass for the BC Juvenile, though obviously at this time he is as strong as anyone, but I think it is fair to say that he could well be at a stronger tactical advantage in the Juvie at Monmouth than he was at Belmont. It is easier to bottom a field out going two turns there than it is at Belmont. I am loathe to bet one way speed horses, and the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate as of now is certainly a cause for pause, but tactically he may well be stronger next time. Or not.
|
|
#28
10-07-2007, 08:53 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
The reason I brought up the non bet-back topic harkens to researching Champagne winners BC Juvy histories after a discussion with Lansdon Robbins in reference to First Samurai. Since the advent of the BC, their have only been a couple standouts in the Juvy after winning the Champagne... Think I may still have the notes I made as a matter of fact.. I'll look for them as they were surprising.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#29
10-07-2007, 09:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Yeah, if you disect Champagne winners that ran in the BC I think you will find they didn't necessarily underperform...at least dramatically. It feels a little like the ridiculous Juvie/Derby jinx.
I have no idea right now what the Juvenile field will look like when assembled, and the posts are drawn, and right now I tend to favor Tale of Ekati, but considering the overall ineptitude we have seen, I can't dismiss any horse because it won a big race. Who are all the hidden horses out there this year?
|
|
#30
10-07-2007, 09:30 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Since 1990... Champagne Winner in BC Juvy
13/2-0-2 (And since Timber Country.. 9/0-0-2) 06 Scat Daddy - 4th @ 7-2 05 First Samurai - 3rd @ 3-2 (At Belmont) 04 Proud Accolade - 6th @ 5-2 03 Birdstone - DNS 02 Toccet - 9th @ 8-1 01 Officer - 5th @ 3-4 (At Belmont) 00 AP Valentine - 14th @ 5-2 99 Greenwood Lake - DNS 98 The Groom is Red - 6th @ 3-1 97 Grand Slam - 8th @ 2-1 (eased with cut) 96 Ordway - 3rd @ 3-2 95 Maria's Mon - DNS 94 Timber Country - WON @ 5-2 (At Churchill) 93 Dehere - 8th @ 3-4 92 Sea Hero - 7th @ 5-2 91 Tri to Watch - 8th @ 5-1 90 Fly So Free - WON @ 3-2 (At Belmont)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#31
10-07-2007, 09:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Point Given was a very hard luck second to AP Valentine and then an even harder luck loser of a photo to Macho Uno. Henny Hughes arguably ran better than First Samurai two years ago and came back to do the same in the BC.
Honestly, looking at that list only Dehere's failure surprised me. My point is that solid handicapping will make the right decisions and going into your handicapping with a preconceived bias will harm you in the long run.
|
|
#32
10-07-2007, 09:43 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Updated
Quote:
JEROME: McLaughlin-Luzzi (Daaher) SPINSTER (Gr. I): Pletcher-Gomez (Panty Raid) LADY'S SECRET (Gr. I): Baffert-Espinoza (Tough Tiz's Sis) OAK TREE MILE (Gr. I): Frankel-M. Baze (Out of Control) ANCIENT TITLE (Gr. I): Sise-Flores (Idiot Proof) 20 stakes... 18 different trainers (Only Frankel & Baffert with pairs of winners..) 17 different jocks (Only C. Velasquez, Albarado & Gomez get 2 each..)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#33
10-07-2007, 09:47 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
That is completely illogical.
|
|
#34
10-07-2007, 09:48 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Andy.. Who was Tri to Watch? Have not one iota of a recollection of that '91 Champagne winner.. None. A Fred Hooper runner trained by Carl Domino.. but what else did he ever do?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#35
10-07-2007, 09:50 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
which is reinforced by the payouts of the BC Juvie....the betting fav has won 8 times and we have only had double digit payouts 4 times (three in the past few years)....so while the Champagne winner might not have been winning, logical horses were.
__________________
 Seek respect, not attention.
|
|
#36
10-07-2007, 09:52 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#37
10-07-2007, 09:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I have very little memory of Tri to Watch, and was surely at that Champagne, so he must have been pretty nondescript.
|
|
#38
10-07-2007, 09:59 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#39
10-07-2007, 10:00 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#40
10-07-2007, 10:06 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
Linear Mode
