Bounce theory, Steve?

[mclem10011]

I don't have enough knowledge of the sheets to comment on this study itself, although i did take a look at it. I don't get the feeling however in the case of Street Sense, that a bounce will happen. He may get the same trip that he got in the Derby, or run the same TG or Beyer numbers. But he may not have to, in order to still win this race.

[Kasept]

I have too much work to do before leaving tomorrow to detail this, but the crux of the confusion here is "big efforts" AS PART OF WHAT KIND OF OVERALL PATTERN AND AT WHAT POINT IN A HORSE'S DEVELOPMENT...

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Look I can't bash Frankel as he is obviously a world class trainer, but he is also so overly cautious and scratch crazy it's maddening. I think as horse fans we are all being brainwashed into thinking horses can't run well without 4 weeks or more rest. I think it's crap. I understand not all can, but I truly believe good horses can run good races without having "plenty" of time off. Allen Jerkens seems to disagree strongly with Frankel and he seems to have made an okay career for himself. Not all horses need to be babied.

You can bring a horse back in 3 weeks and they may win, but you may win the battle and lose the war. They may not come out of the race very good. It can totally knock them out. It obviously depends on the horse. Some horses are stronger than others. Smarty Jones was an "iron-horse". Most horses would fall apart if you gave them a campaign like that. He lasted for a while but it eventually caught up with him. I heard that when they finally retired him, he was a mess. He had practically no cartilage left.

In addition to handicapping for the last 25 years, I've been an owner and racing manager for about 23 years. I can tell you that in most circumstances I personally hate running a horse back in 3 weeks. There are times that I will do it, but in general I will try to avoid it.

It obviously depends on how hard the horse ran in his previous race. If the horse didn't run very hard, then that's a different story.

Everything I'm saying is a generalization. If you have a horse that always gets 5-6 weeks between races and then you run him on 3 weeks rest as a one-time deal, you can probably get away with it. You just don't want to make a habit of it.

[golfer]

OK, while woking on Saturday's card, I came across a perfect example of what this thread is about... 2nd race, #10 Travelin Leroy. Steve, when you get a chance (or anyone else), Travelin Leroy is a 4 yr old for Gamiel Vezquez, ran on April 29th (off 11 week layoff), ran a 1.5, which is a 5pt career top..now comes back 20 days later. I would normally expect a reaction to that 5 point, quite isolated top, and only 20 days rest. What say anyone else?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

And recognize that regressions come most often off of big, new high water mark performances. Neither Hard Spun or Street Sense are operating under that scenario. Curlin either for that matter... In the Derby, Hard Spun reached a slight new top and Street Sense got back to his BC Juvy top, though he had to leap to get back to it... Curlin paired up on his string of fast performances...

Wanted to bring this back forward for further questions, analysis, discussion, comprehension.. There is a big difference in a short turnaround for a horse like Silver Minister off his huge Blue Grass (a mammouth forward move) than horses like Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun coming off slight new tops or paired efforts.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wanted to bring this back forward for further questions, analysis, discussion, comprehension.. There is a big difference in a short turnaround for a horse like Silver Minister off his huge Blue Grass (a mammouth forward move) than horses like Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun coming off slight new tops or paired efforts.

Steve, would it be fair to say that none of the "sheet" people were touting Curlin because he basically has done something no other horse has ever done, aka starting off his career with amazing figs, and never going backwards despite so many efforts in such a short period of time (5 races in 15 weeks, starting with zero, and finishing with negative ?)
I've never seen a sheet like Curlin's, have you? From a TG standpoint, this horse started at zero, stayed at the same level up until Saturday... to have expected a monster race off the 2 week turnaround was hard to imagine. I wonder if any other horse who ran in the Derby has run a big top in the Preakness?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, would it be fair to say that none of the "sheet" people were touting Curlin because he basically has done something no other horse has ever done, aka starting off his career with amazing figs, and never going backwards despite so many efforts in such a short period of time (5 races in 15 weeks, starting with zero, and finishing with negative ?)

I've never seen a sheet like Curlin's, have you? From a TG standpoint, this horse started at zero, stayed at the same level up until Saturday... to have expected a monster race off the 2 week turnaround was hard to imagine. I wonder if any other horse who ran in the Derby has run a big top in the Preakness?

Jerry made Curlin 50-50 to go forward or regress. In terms of development, Curlin is rather unique given the lack of racing foundation at 2, and basically, this win really belongs to Helen Pitts as much as Steve Asmussen. Because the horse didn't run as a juvenile, he had to get 'bottom' from somewhere.. Since he didn't get it on the track in the afternoons, he had to get it in mornings..

I suppose his figs remind me of Afleet Alex a bit (as a 2yo), who really got his foundation on track; was fast in his second start and stayed fast ('2' and 4 straight paired performances through the BC Juvy) before moving forward into negative numbers at three..

[golfer]

Steve, generally speaking, I'm really just trying to learn as much as I can about which efforts may cause a "reaction".
I realize each horse is different, each situation needs to be evaluated on it's own merit. But is there a general guideline that we can use as a starting point, and work from there?
From now on, I plan on posting about horses that I consider major question marks on whether they will go forward or backward, or pair.. I would greatly appreciate your weighing in on what you would expect( and of course anyone else).

On a slightly different note, the one thing that stood out while handicapping Pimlico Saturday with the TG's was some of the extraordinary numbers these Maryland horses have been putting up, for certain trainers, especially. Now I don't follow Maryland racing, so either theses horses are far better than I realized, or perhaps the "medication" rules are a bit lax

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

On a slightly different note, the one thing that stood out while handicapping Pimlico Saturday with the TG's was some of the extraordinary numbers these Maryland horses have been putting up, for certain trainers, especially. Now I don't follow Maryland racing, so either theses horses are far better than I realized, or perhaps the "medication" rules are a bit lax

Medication rules are 'laxest in Delaware.. A big part of Maryland horses being better than possibly appreciated is Laurel. Laurel is a lot like Calder in that it is a deep, kind surface that lends itself well to keeping horses sound and developing condition. When LRL horses move to speedier surfaces, like Calder horses moving to Gulfstream, they can really 'move up'... (And fast works at LRL look slower than they really are like 'slow' works at Calder and Saratoga's Oklahoma Training Track..)

Examples? Well my guy Trombetta uses it to advantage all the time, but this weekend, how about Keep On Talking (3rd at 34-1) in The Very One; Winning Point in the Black-Eyed Susan (actually trains at old Bowie, another kind surface); Street Magician in the Jacobs; Ryan's for Real in the Schaefer.. Etc..

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Kasept

a horse like Silver Minister off his huge Blue Grass

hate to nit-pick.

but i assume you mean Sinister Minister's 2006 BG

SILVER MINISTER is a 5k claimer who ran at CD recently