Not raced at two results

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ARyan

Not a Curlin supporter at all, but to play devil's advocate;

-Gelding
-NY Bred
-5 week layoff

Just off the top of my head...

Derby history is made to be broken...

Again, I am not a Curlin supporter.

Spoken like a true Curlin supporter.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Spoken like a true Curlin supporter.

I know, I am sick. I should try to go delete that post.

Damn me and my insatiable demand for debate.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

If they aren't tools what would you like me to call them? Past Performances can be criticized the same way...what Curlin did in the Ark Derby doesn't necessarily translate into how he will run Saturday but most handicappers ( myself included) study PP's...why? Because they are useful tools along with others. A tool isn't good or bad, it's how you use them. There are dozens of angles I don't list cause I fail to see any causal relationship in them...the ones I do list I can defend (except for Damascus one and I state that). Call me stupid but I think a lot of folks who are thinking about betting Curlin to win might want to know that no horse without a race at two has won the Derby since 1882 and with less than 5 LT starts has won since 1918...of course Curlin may win but betting him should be a decision based on all available info not just that which you favor.

Let me ask you, what is the causal relationship between Showup losing to Barbaro, et al, last year, and Curlins chances against this group on Saturday.

[letswastemoney]

Why aren't geldings supposed to win the Derby again?? I mean aren't they the same thing as male horses except without the thingamadobber.

I guess it's because there are less geldings out there? If it was 50 percent geldings, then they'd probably win about half of the Derbys.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Let me ask you, what is the causal relationship between Showup losing to Barbaro, et al, last year, and Curlins chances against this group on Saturday.

There is a causal relationship between not racing at two and having an adequate foundation to race 10 furlongs the first Sat in May against a field of 15-20 horses. Since Showup and Curlin are different horses, the effect will be different...I can't say that because Showup didn't win, neither will Curlin...all I am saying is that they share the same circumstance (no race at two) and I cite data regarding the results of Derby horses with no race at two. I can see from the data (43 horses since 1956, probably over 100 easily since 1882) that 0% of horses with no races at two have won the Derby while approximately 6-7% of all horses running in the Derby have won...what one makes of that is up to the individual, it is simply data!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I guess it's because there are less geldings out there? If it was 50 percent geldings, then they'd probably win about half of the Derbys.

Your point seems very obvious, but people seem to have forgetten some fairly obvious points around here. A lot of horses that win the Derby were very good 2yo colts. Very good 2yo colts aren't often gelded. That probably has more to do with it than the fact that geldings are somehow mysteriously jinxed.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Why aren't geldings supposed to win the Derby again?? I mean aren't they the same thing as male horses except without the thingamadobber.

I guess it's because there are less geldings out there? If it was 50 percent geldings, then they'd probably win about half of the Derbys.

There have been studies which indicate that a colt gelded early in life will develop physically a bit slower than one not gelded...if true, this would put the gelded horse at a physical disadvantage early in the 3yo season at a distance....but probably the main reason is that well-bred colts and those that show early promise aren't gelded as this would cost the owner potentially millions in stud fees. Look at the famous geldings...the ones that excelled on the track...most ran their best races well after their 3yo season...Kelso, Forego, John Henry as examples.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Your point seems very obvious, but people seem to have forgetten some fairly obvious points around here. A lot of horses that win the Derby were very good 2yo colts. Very good 2yo colts aren't often gelded. That probably has more to do with it than the fact that geldings are somehow mysteriously jinxed.

Again, these angles all have a defendable explanation...they aren't "curses" or "jinxs" I agree that colts that show early promise aren't gelded unless there are physical problems.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

There is a causal relationship between not racing at two and having an adequate foundation to race 10 furlongs the first Sat in May against a field of 15-20 horses. Since Showup and Curlin are different horses, the effect will be different...I can't say that because Showup didn't win, neither will Curlin...all I am saying is that they share the same circumstance (no race at two) and I cite data regarding the results of Derby horses with no race at two. I can see from the data (43 horses since 1956, probably over 100 easily since 1882) that 0% of horses with no races at two have won the Derby while approximately 6-7% of all horses running in the Derby have won...what one makes of that is up to the individual, it is simply data!

In a way man, I feel for you. I know you are just providing people with info and letting them figure out what to do with it.
I guess the problem is.....I don't think they should do a damn thing with any of it. If Curlin had run a 5f race last September, and then sat on the shelf for months (for whatever reason) before making his 3yo debut, he would be off the list, but would he actually have a more solid foundation?

[somerfrost]

Also, and Brock can probably help here, but it wasn't that long ago that geldings weren't allowed to enter major stake races in Europe (don't recall exactly when that changed or whether it applied to all graded stakes or just group ones)....they were thought to be unable to compete against colts/horses.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

In a way man, I feel for you. I know you are just providing people with info and letting them figure out what to do with it.
I guess the problem is.....I don't think they should do a damn thing with any of it. If Curlin had run a 5f race last September, and then sat on the shelf for months (for whatever reason) before making his 3yo debut, he would be off the list, but would he actually have a more solid foundation?

Curlin didn't start racing until when? He has raced 3 times...I would question his foundation whether he raced at two or not based on his total of three. Again, logic and common sense come into play...a 5f race at two and two preps at three and I wouldn't value him any higher, a 5f race at two and four preps at three and I would certainly look at him!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Curlin didn't start racing until when? He has raced 3 times...I would question his foundation whether he raced at two or not based on his total of three. Again, logic and common sense come into play...a 5f race at two and two preps at three and I wouldn't value him any higher, a 5f race at two and four preps at three and I would certainly look at him!

Again, not to get into a lot of vet research but there are studies concerning the effects of 2yo racing on such things as lung capacity, bone density, muscle development...again, Brock...are you here? I know you cited some of these studies. Remember that if a horse raced at two, he/she also trained up to said race, so he/she had a lot more serious work (on average) than a horse who wasn't readied for racing until three.

[packerbacker7964]

I think the racing at two thing also brings in the fact lot's of good horses race at an early age. If they are well breed the owners are more inclined to race them early because they were bought at an early sale. Late foals are another thing as is an early problem with their body's.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Also, and Brock can probably help here, but it wasn't that long ago that geldings weren't allowed to enter major stake races in Europe (don't recall exactly when that changed or whether it applied to all graded stakes or just group ones)....they were thought to be unable to compete against colts/horses.

Somer, thats STILL the case for our classics, the 2000 Guineas, Derby and St.Leger - only Entire Colts and Fillies allowed.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Again, not to get into a lot of vet research but there are studies concerning the effects of 2yo racing on such things as lung capacity, bone density, muscle development...again, Brock...are you here? I know you cited some of these studies. Remember that if a horse raced at two, he/she also trained up to said race, so he/she had a lot more serious work (on average) than a horse who wasn't readied for racing until three.

I'll see if I can dig them out but youre correct, most of the studies Ive read advocate racing quite alot at 2 to get the benefits that you have mentioned!