Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You can add me to the guilty list for betting that nag.

There really didn't feel like there was any right move, from a betting standpoint, going into last years Derby.

Barbaro had become "the wiseguy" horse---and was bet to favortisim right up until one minute before post--when someone bet 100K on SNS. The same Barbaro who's win in the FLA Derby was being unfairly bashed on many message boards as a real moderate performance. With each workout going into the Derby, he seemed to gather more and more support. In year's past, those type of horses often seemed to run bad.

SNS was also really being bet---and his win at Hawthorne came with a very soft trip...so he couldn't be touched.

Brother Derek had a sprinter/miler pedigree and won soft stakes with easy trips. He was an ice-cold morning line favorite who couldn't be touched.

It seemed like there were a lot of traps last year...

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

DrugS, thoughts on AGS after the post position draw?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smuthg

DrugS, thoughts on AGS after the post position draw?

Nothing has changed at all.

My opinion is exactly the same as it was a couple weeks ago.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Nothing has changed at all.

My opinion is exactly the same as it was a couple weeks ago.

WOW, because I am really starting to sway. I just can't see him not being 8 wide.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There's a long run to the first turn, and Gomez is one of the more skilled riders around when it comes to dropping in and saving ground....he should be able to work a decent trip....even from way out there.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There's a long run to the first turn, and Gomez is one of the more skilled riders around when it comes to dropping in and saving ground....he should be able to work a decent trip....even from way out there.

everyone is saying Scat D. drew perfect and he is 14, not that much difference. It may benefit AGS is it makes him come from off the pace.