This Given Saturday - Page 2

ArlJim78 · #21 03-17-2007, 07:17 AM

Any Given Saturday raced on Tampa sand last time for the first time and was comfortable winning.

Why then is it automatically assumed that Street Sense is going to be uncomfortable and at such a disadvantage?

How was Any Given Saturday able to do it?

I agree that a looking for a horse with an affinity for the surface is a good angle. It certainly works for me on poly. But before having raced on the surface its seems strange to jump immediately to the conclusion that the horse won't handle the surface.

Any Given Saturday showed that he can run the same kind of race over the TBD surface as he did in previous races in Kentucky. Why won't Street Sense do the same?

golfer · #22 03-17-2007, 07:35 AM

Arljim, the only reason to assume he won't is the price! If Street Sense is the big favorite, and he doesn't take to the surface, there may be value elsewhere. This type of assumption makes most sense when going against a big favorite, although you certainly won't be right all the time. But you don't have to be.

ArlJim78 · #23 03-17-2007, 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Arljim, the only reason to assume he won't is the price! If Street Sense is the big favorite, and he doesn't take to the surface, there may be value elsewhere. This type of assumption makes most sense when going against a big favorite, although you certainly won't be right all the time. But you don't have to be.

Well for multirace plays you can't just leave out all favorites because you won't be right often enough because they win too much.

Certainly if you think he's worth the risk to play against it makes sense but I don't think you are going to get any bargain price on Any Given Saturday either, and I don't see any other likely win candidates.

There are many many races you can play each day with false, overly bet, heavy favorites. I guess I'm more inclined to play against those types and not this one considering what the horse has shown and the connections.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #24 03-17-2007, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Well for multirace plays you can't just leave out all favorites because you won't be right often enough because they win too much.

Certainly if you think he's worth the risk to play against it makes sense but I don't think you are going to get any bargain price on Any Given Saturday either, and I don't see any other likely win candidates.

There are many many races you can play each day with false, overly bet, heavy favorites. I guess I'm more inclined to play against those types and not this one considering what the horse has shown and the connections.

is it safe to say that you think street sense is a winner today ?

golfer · #25 03-17-2007, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Well for multirace plays you can't just leave out all favorites because you won't be right often enough because they win too much.

Certainly if you think he's worth the risk to play against it makes sense but I don't think you are going to get any bargain price on Any Given Saturday either, and I don't see any other likely win candidates.

There are many many races you can play each day with false, overly bet, heavy favorites. I guess I'm more inclined to play against those types and not this one considering what the horse has shown and the connections.

Understood, mine was more a general statement than specific to this race, however, I'm still taking a stand against (in the win spot).

Thunder Gulch · #26 03-17-2007, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm not dismissing Street Senses performance in the BC juvy, but I think it's irrelevant tomorrow. He hasn't raced in over 4 months, and doesn't have a trip over the tricky surface at Tampa. And most importantly, whether it's trainer speak or not, the horse is not cranked and does not need to win. All he wants is a good performance.
Any Given Saturday needs the Graded Earnings to get to the derby,
and is ready to roll.
Bet against Pletcher and Velasquez at your own risk.

My thoughts exactly. Plus, nobody has come off of the BC gold rail to run well.

Thunder Gulch · #27 03-17-2007, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Well for multirace plays you can't just leave out all favorites because you won't be right often enough because they win too much.

Certainly if you think he's worth the risk to play against it makes sense but I don't think you are going to get any bargain price on Any Given Saturday either, and I don't see any other likely win candidates.

There are many many races you can play each day with false, overly bet, heavy favorites. I guess I'm more inclined to play against those types and not this one considering what the horse has shown and the connections.

An overlay is an overlay, whether it's 10-1 or 8-5. I think AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field if Street Sense weren't in it, so by tossing him, I'm getting twice the fair odds in my opinion. Kinda like Lava Man in California. So many people are quick to try to beat him that he goes off more than even money and wins 8 straight.

#28 03-17-2007, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

So many people are quick to try to beat him that he goes off more than even money and wins 8 straight.

If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.

Lots of ways to look at it from a probability point of view. Looking for that big kill on a favorite at even money is death long term. In other words if you make that kill once, stop. But the tendency is very clearly to put big money down, make a 100% profit, and its party time. Then you look for party time again, and take a smackin. People cant leave that apparently easy money alone for long in this game.

That being said I will have fun watching, not wagering on this race. Imo Street Sense and Nobiz are the capable monsters this year. If you had to pick two horses that have a shot at the TC, I would go with these two.

#29 03-17-2007, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.

Lots of ways to look at it from a probability point of view. Looking for that big kill on a favorite at even money is death long term. In other words if you make that kill once, stop. But the tendency is very clearly to put big money down, make a 100% profit, and its party time. Then you look for party time again, and take a smackin. People cant leave that apparently easy money alone for long in this game.

That being said I will have fun watching, not wagering on this race. Imo Street Sense and Nobiz are the capable monsters this year. If you had to pick two horses that have a shot at the TC, I would go with these two.

3 year olds don't run 8 straight. More like 3 and then retirement.

ArlJim78 · #30 03-17-2007, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

An overlay is an overlay, whether it's 10-1 or 8-5. I think AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field if Street Sense weren't in it, so by tossing him, I'm getting twice the fair odds in my opinion. Kinda like Lava Man in California. So many people are quick to try to beat him that he goes off more than even money and wins 8 straight.

Yes and even money is an overlay on Street Sense if he shows up in the same form that he showed in his last two races. Even a close approximation of those races will get it done here.

I just think that after this race people are going to be looking back and thinking why in the world was I trying to beat him with this field.

#31 03-17-2007, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

3 year olds don't run 8 straight. More like 3 and then retirement.

You are correct. But if you cant find 8 races with even money favorites you just know are going to win... you are not looking. The temptation of easy money is my point Dr. Pillow. Kinda like when two teams play, its one or the other, 50/50 shot with a return of less than 100%. And you just know you have the winner. You are familiar with these plays I will assume.

Storm Cadet · #32 03-17-2007, 10:16 AM

Race Projection:

1.Op Steve: NY Bred who jumped 35 performance fig points from maiden to second race. I expect him to regress a little as he has not faced this competition so far in his career. Positive to him as he was closing well on a very speed favoring bias last out. If he pairs that last performance, he'll still be short of a win here.

2. Street Sense: Has shown nice small progressive figures in each of his last four races and has done well on fast, slop, poly and a juiced up Breeders Cup surface last year. Projecting him to run a triple digit performance fig today from off the pace. Does he need a race? Lots of works says he ready to go. No price though.

3. All I Can Get: Ran a triple top last out...should regress back to his level today.

4. AG Saturday-2 nice off the pace wins on poly in his 1st 2 starts, then exploded to a triple digit 4W performance in the KY JC on 5 weeks rest. First out this year JV rides just hard enough to get the win. If he pairs up his JC performance fig, or IMPROVES as Pletcher usually does, he'll win, but at no price.

I don't see anybody else being competitive in this race. Race is a pass and watch from cold and icy Long Island!

Dunbar · #33 03-17-2007, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

An overlay is an overlay, whether it's 10-1 or 8-5. I think AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field if Street Sense weren't in it, so by tossing him, I'm getting twice the fair odds in my opinion.

By "tossing him", do you really think he has zero chance to win? Of course not. So, what chance do you give Street Sense? Let me turn that question around. Would you take 2-1 on Street Sense if you could get it? If so, you think he has at least a 33% chance to win the race.

You said AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field without Street Sense. If you mean 3-5 is fair odds, then that means that AGS would have a 5/8 = 62.5% chance to win the race without Street Sense. The rest of the field would have 37.5% chance to win. WITH Street Sense, those numbers are obviously reduced. If fair odds on Street Sense are, say, 2-1, then that 33% has to come from the chances of AGS and the other horses. AGS's chance to win would drop from 62.5% to around 42%. A 42% chance to win is close to 7-5. That's consistent with your 8-5, but it's heavily dependent on the fair odds you assign Street Sense. My point is it usually pays to assign odds rather than "toss". (unless you truly think Street Sense has zero chance, in which case you can make a ton of money by offering various people on this forum 2-1 on Street Sense.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.

That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.

--Dunbar

#34 03-17-2007, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.

--Dunbar

If you make that single play "longshot" play 9 times... you only have to hit it once. And if you find nine races in which you project fair odds close to but not double digits on a double digit odd horse...

I guess the real point is I would have never bet Lava MAN to win the 8 races he has. In hindsight I would be way ahead. But I never would have done this. How many times do you see even money favorites win 8 races in a row using any track and any 8 races on a given day?

saucon17 · #35 03-17-2007, 05:08 PM

That was the best stakes race so far this year, Classic Calvin "Borail",
that race didn't deserve a loser

Indian Charlie · #36 03-17-2007, 05:10 PM

why the front wraps for street sense?

GPK · #37 03-17-2007, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17

That was the best stakes race so far this year, Classic Calvin "Borail",
that race didn't deserve a loser

Mike...does anyone love the rail more than Calvin?? No fear....I love it.

saucon17 · #38 03-17-2007, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Mike...does anyone love the rail more than Calvin?? No fear....I love it.

Kev, I never seen a jockey like Calvin squeeze through the smallest gap
on the rail. Has some Guts.

saucon17 · #39 03-17-2007, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

why the front wraps for street sense?

He had them on in BC Juvy, probably more cautionary than
anything or track is known for running down horses.

PPerfectfan · #40 03-17-2007, 05:20 PM

That is the Cajun coming out in him.lol 'Round here ya gotta go where ya gotta go. I think we just say the KY Derby winner folks. Some may say the race took alot out of SS but I think even if it did he has plenty of time to recover and doesnt have to win the next prep. Damn he is nice. And couldnt happen to better connections. Geaux Calvin!!