kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1

Originally Posted by boldruler

I doubt Tagg said anything about Funny Cide. He doesn't say anything about any of his horses. My info is from a guy who knows the owner and he said 100x that Barbaro would romp in the derby. I didn't see you making that pick. You haven't exactly been red hot with your picks lately, from what I can tell. I would hope you didn't bet on Showing Up in this one.

You are indeed pretty stupid. I hit the Derby tri for two bucks using three horses on top(Barabro, AP Warrior, and SNS) keying Stepp 2nd and 3rd underneath. Now if you want to dispute that please fell free to ask about 13 people on here who called me or emailed me before the race or Lansdon, who I was with on Derby Day. If you would like we could make a nice little wager and I could fax you the IRS signings of the tickets.
And sorry, but very few owners are going to have as good an opinion on handicapping a race as about 15 people on here. Its an opinion, nothing more.
My "info" on here rarely if ever comes from a trainer, because like Blackthroat I don't like "trainer info". My info comes from a clocker who is the most respected private clocker in NY, and is known all over. he is there every morning in the dark and his opinion and tiimes are sought out by Zito, Frankel, Dutrow, Kimmel, and many others. He used to train, and trained grade one winners. Hes older now, and clocks. If Joe says he saw it, I take it as gospel. How would a trainer or owner know better than a good clocker? I mean a good clocker catches the fractions correctly and furthermore, one who used to train also pays attention to the way they are striding out and switching leads. Basically, owner and trainer info is useless, unless they asked the opinion of a good clocker.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I couldn't disagree more. Making money betting horses depends very strongly on how accurate is your assessment of any horse's chances. If you only bet horses whose odds were higher than their chances of winning you would be a huge winner in this game.

The simple fact is that Showing Up's odds will not reflect his chances of winning. Not even close.

If he was 30-1 I would make a huge win bet on him. His chances of winning are certainly greater than 3.33%. What I don't believe is that they are substantially greater than 10%.

I guess the difference in the way I see it is that I don't look at odds in the same way. I look at the chart and sheets myself and pick who I think is the winner and not who the majority thinks... if he was 91-1 and I thought he would win, I would bet him and the same would go if he was 2-1. I think that if you like a horse to win, you should bet him to win no matter what his odds are. JMO.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I guess the difference in the way I see it is that I don't look at odds in the same way. I look at the chart and sheets myself and pick who I think is the winner and not who the majority thinks... if he was 91-1 and I thought he would win, I would bet him and the same would go if he was 2-1. I think that if you like a horse to win, you should bet him to win no matter what his odds are. JMO.

This is simply a losing strategy.

First, and most simply, if you liked a 91-1 shot as much as a 2-1 shot you should bet a minimum of ten times as much on the 91-1 shot.

If you're rooting, and not betting, fine...odds are irrelevent. But, if you're betting, the odds are of paramount importance.

Originally Posted by oracle80

You are indeed pretty stupid. I hit the Derby tri for two bucks using three horses on top(Barabro, AP Warrior, and SNS) keying Stepp 2nd and 3rd underneath. Now if you want to dispute that please fell free to ask about 13 people on here who called me or emailed me before the race or Lansdon, who I was with on Derby Day. If you would like we could make a nice little wager and I could fax you the IRS signings of the tickets.
And sorry, but very few owners are going to have as good an opinion on handicapping a race as about 15 people on here. Its an opinion, nothing more.
My "info" on here rarely if ever comes from a trainer, because like Blackthroat I don't like "trainer info". My info comes from a clocker who is the most respected private clocker in NY, and is known all over. he is there every morning in the dark and his opinion and tiimes are sought out by Zito, Frankel, Dutrow, Kimmel, and many others. He used to train, and trained grade one winners. Hes older now, and clocks. If Joe says he saw it, I take it as gospel. How would a trainer or owner know better than a good clocker? I mean a good clocker catches the fractions correctly and furthermore, one who used to train also pays attention to the way they are striding out and switching leads. Basically, owner and trainer info is useless, unless they asked the opinion of a good clocker.

Ok. I watched a guy who used to post on ESPN site, tell people for weeks that Barbaro would romp. Didn't see you say that. Nice you picked a tri for $2, I actually lost $1K on the race betting SNS, but I watched my friend make more money than most people make in a year betting on the horse in future pools and on derby day and he told me the same thing about this weekend. I will go with the guy who I have watched collect and who posted on 3 sites how Barbaro couldn't lose. He said SU couldn't be beaten just like Barbaro. He also knows a little more than you and your clocker friend when it comes to the horse business.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is simply a losing strategy.

First, and most simply, if you liked a 91-1 shot as much as a 2-1 shot you should bet a minimum of ten times as much on the 91-1 shot.

If you're rooting, and not betting, fine...odds are irrelevent. But, if you're betting, the odds are of paramount importance.

I agree. I just won't make a big bet on short priced horses. There is no return on investment. What is the point of risking 1K to make $800 on a 4-5 shot. You need to win more than 50% of the time.

[blackthroatedwind]

I HIGHLY doubt your friend knows more about this game than Joe Petrucione. In fact, it is near impossible.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Ok. I watched a guy who used to post on ESPN site, tell people for weeks that Barbaro would romp. Didn't see you say that. Nice you picked a tri for $2, I actually lost $1K on the race betting SNS, but I watched my friend make more money than most people make in a year betting on the horse in future pools and on derby day and he told me the same thing about this weekend. I will go with the guy who I have watched collect and who posted on 3 sites how Barbaro couldn't lose. He said SU couldn't be beaten just like Barbaro. He also knows a little more than you and your clocker friend when it comes to the horse business.

No, I can assure you he does not know more. As a matter of fact, the clocker I refer to made close to 60 thousand dollars betting Barbaro that day and called him before the race to be the biggest cinch he ever saw in his life off his last work. Its only because he told me that that i used him on top in the trifecta(the 11,500 trifecta). In turn I helped him by telling him to make sure he used Stepp underneath.
I just called him right this minute toask him about the two grass works that he had and he said that they were very good and that he was a very live horse on saturday. I then asked him if off those workouts if he thought the horse compared to English Channel now(you said he was better) and he began to howl and laugh. He asked why i would ask that so I explained. He asked me where I find nuts like that.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by oracle80

No, I can assure you he does not know more. As a matter of fact, the clocker I refer to made close to 60 thousand dollars betting Barbaro that day and called him before the race to be the biggest cinch he ever saw in his life off his last work. Its only because he told me that that i used him on top in the trifecta(the 11,500 trifecta). In turn I helped him by telling him to make sure he used Stepp underneath.
I just called him right this minute toask him about the two grass works that he had and he said that they were very good and that he was a very live horse on saturday. I then asked him if off those workouts if he thought the horse compared to English Channel now(you said he was better) and he began to howl and laugh. He asked why i would ask that so I explained. He asked me where I find nuts like that.

Did he say who else he thought was a live horse?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I HIGHLY doubt your friend knows more about this game than Joe Petrucione. In fact, it is near impossible.

Its absolutely impossible. He may not be the best gambler, and by his own admission he isnt a good handicapper. But noone alive on this planet knows more about watching horses train and understanding works and traning like Joe. Hes relied upon by all the names I mentioned earlier to tell THEM how THEIR horses are doing. Imagine that? Guys who have won all three legs of the tri crown, trained champs, etc call him to see HOW HE THINKS their horses are doing. Trust me boldruler, you are talking out of your ass on this one.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Did he say who else he thought was a live horse?

He said Pletchers horse was just as good Cajun(on works). I asked him if he was put to heads up matchup who he would take, and he paused briefly and said Pletcher. Roman Dynasty.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by oracle80

He said Pletchers horse was just as good Cajun(on works). I asked him if he was put to heads up matchup who he would take, and he paused briefly and said Pletcher. Roman Dynasty.

That's ironic, because those are my two choices at this point. Thanks for the info, Mike.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Did he say who else he thought was a live horse?

I will e-mail him but there is a horse with some connection to Cigar he liked. Don't know if it was the Mott connection of the AP connection. I am just betting win, but my friend's brother, who is a pretty good handicapper likes Rock Lobster to give Showing Up a race. I personally think Stream Cat is the only horse that could beat him.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I will e-mail him but there is a horse with some connection to Cigar he liked. Don't know if it was the Mott connection of the AP connection. I am just betting win, but my friend's brother, who is a pretty good handicapper likes Rock Lobster to give Showing Up a race. I personally think Stream Cat is the only horse that could beat him.

Rock Lobster is a very slow horse, and anyone who likes him cannot be a good handicapper.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its absolutely impossible. He may not be the best gambler, and by his own admission he isnt a good handicapper. But noone alive on this planet knows more about watching horses train and understanding works and traning like Joe. Hes relied upon by all the names I mentioned earlier to tell THEM how THEIR horses are doing. Imagine that? Guys who have won all three legs of the tri crown, trained champs, etc call him to see HOW HE THINKS their horses are doing. Trust me boldruler, you are talking out of your ass on this one.

No good trainer goes asking clockers how their horse is doing. They know. I remember for the Derby my friend telling me how the clockers didn't even pick up one of Barbaro's works. These clockers are good at what they do, but unless they know what a trainer wants out of the work it is pointless. Also, clockers at belmont see a horse work over the turf one day a week, on Sunday mornings. If it was dirt I would say the clockers know their stuff, but turf works are so rare that no clocker could give an honest opinion on how a horse worked. Showing Up has completely different action on the turf, not the same horse as on the dirt.

[Gander]

Cajun- I dont agree with your philosophy on odds. I agree with Blackthroat and Bold Ruler on this one. Even if you think Showing Up is a logical winner, you should very well care what the odds are. The higher the odds, means more profit if you are right, so you should increase your bet. If I liked Showing Up as much as Bold Ruler, I would bet a higher dollar amount at odds of 6/1 than I would if he was 2/1.

This is a crazy game and you need all the help you can get with odds. You need to take your heart and ego out of it when you are betting money. Too many things can go wrong in a horse race...

Just read some of the threads on this board lately, seems like almost every horse that doesnt win has some sort of an excuse.

Showing Up is a complete bet againt in my eyes. I would be totally surprised if Showing Up is in the top 3. Stream Cat looks much the best, but there is some talent in this field. I don't know who I like so far, but Showing Up and Rock Lobster are out in my book.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Gander

Cajun- I dont agree with your philosophy on odds. I agree with Blackthroat and Bold Ruler on this one. Even if you think Showing Up is a logical winner, you should very well care what the odds are. The higher the odds, means more profit if you are right, so you should increase your bet. If I liked Showing Up as much as Bold Ruler, I would bet a higher dollar amount at odds of 6/1 than I would if he was 2/1.

This is a crazy game and you need all the help you can get with odds. You need to take your heart and ego out of it when you are betting money. Too many things can go wrong in a horse race...

Just read some of the threads on this board lately, seems like almost every horse that doesnt win has some sort of an excuse.

I agree with that, Tim. Kevin will tell you, I bet with my heart WAY TOO OFTEN. LOL

Originally Posted by boldruler

No good trainer goes asking clockers how their horse is doing. They know. I remember for the Derby my friend telling me how the clockers didn't even pick up one of Barbaro's works. These clockers are good at what they do, but unless they know what a trainer wants out of the work it is pointless. Also, clockers at belmont see a horse work over the turf one day a week, on Sunday mornings. If it was dirt I would say the clockers know their stuff, but turf works are so rare that no clocker could give an honest opinion on how a horse worked. Showing Up has completely different action on the turf, not the same horse as on the dirt.

Better give Zito a call and explain to him that hes not a good trainer. Then call Kimmel, call Dutrow, call Frankel, etc. He was a trainer, thats why hes the best. he does understand everything.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Better give Zito a call and explain to him that hes not a good trainer. Then call Kimmel, call Dutrow, call Frankel, etc. He was a trainer, thats why hes the best. he does understand everything.

He can call Aidan O'Brien, Asmussen, Pletcher.....good post Oracle.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rock Lobster is a very slow horse, and anyone who likes him cannot be a good handicapper.

I don't know if he is a good handicapper or just someone that gets a lot of inside information, but he had more to win on Barbaro than your $2 triple paid.