First 2009 March Madness thread

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

way to go fsu..knock off unc...i told you they were gonna upset..

Didnt I bring up the Need for UNC to play some defense ?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Saturday Morning update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, Temple/Duquesne
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 39 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 6 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Maryland replaces South Carolina after stepping up and beating Wake while SC loses to Mississippi State.
* Florida falls off the board losing to Auburn.
* Virginia Tech falls off the board losing a heartbreaker to UNC.
* Bid in the A-10 gets stolen as Xavier and Dayton both go down in the semis.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake and I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Temple/Duquesne*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

Saturday Evening update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 40 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 5 spots open.

Changes Today:
* USC steals a bid from someone by upsetting the Pac-10 conference tournament after underperforming all year.
* Mississippi State moves into the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Win would kick SDSU out of the bracket.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State*
5: Purdue, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Ohio State
10: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Utah St*, VCU*
12: USC*, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, SDSU
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

[Smooth Operator]

Well, we all know about SC's loooooooooooong history of excellence on the gridiron.


Good to see that Trojan BB team makin' some noise too.

[SniperSB23]

I think San Diego St is in now so I have two open spots. One will go to the SEC whether Miss St earns it or whether someone gets in as a farewell gift to the SEC commish who is in his final year as chairman of the selection committee. That leaves one bid for St Marys, Maryland, Penn St, and Arizona. Right now I'd rank them in that order but it is a very tough call.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think San Diego St is in now so I have two open spots. One will go to the SEC whether Miss St earns it or whether someone gets in as a farewell gift to the SEC commish who is in his final year as chairman of the selection committee. That leaves one bid for St Marys, Maryland, Penn St, and Arizona. Right now I'd rank them in that order but it is a very tough call.

One thing in St Mary's favor is that most of their losses were when their best player was out of the lineup with a hand injury. He's back, so that should help their cause.

[SniperSB23]

Haven't checked for rematches but here's my projection:

1 North Carolina
2 Oklahoma
3 Villanova
4 Syracuse
5 Purdue
6 Clemson
7 Arizona St.
8 Brigham Young
9 Siena
10 Utah St.
11 Minnesota
12 Cleveland St.
13 Virginia Commonwealth
14 Portland St.
15 Robert Morris
16 Morehead St./Chattanooga

1 Pittsburgh
2 Duke
3 Missouri
4 UCLA
5 Gonzaga
6 Marquette
7 Ohio St.
8 Texas
9 Wisconsin
10 Dayton
11 San Diego St.
12 Mississippi St.
13 Northern Iowa
14 Binghamton
15 Cornell
16 Alabama St.

1 Louisville
2 Memphis
3 Washington
4 Florida St.
5 Illinois
6 Utah
7 Oklahoma St.
8 Louisiana St.
9 Texas A&M
10 Boston College
11 Michigan
12 Temple
13 North Dakota St.
14 Stephen F. Austin
15 East Tennessee St.
16 Radford


1 Connecticut
2 Michigan St.
3 Kansas
4 Wake Forest
5 Tennessee
6 West Virginia
7 Xavier
8 Butler
9 California
10 Southern California
11 St. Mary's
12 Western Kentucky
13 American
14 Akron
15 Morgan St.
16 Cal St. Northridge

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Saturday Evening update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 40 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 5 spots open.

Changes Today:
* USC steals a bid from someone by upsetting the Pac-10 conference tournament after underperforming all year.
* Mississippi State moves into the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Win would kick SDSU out of the bracket.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State*
5: Purdue, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Ohio State
10: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Utah St*, VCU*
12: USC*, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, SDSU
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

Sunday Afternoon update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 41 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 4 spots open.

Changes Today:* Mississippi State wins the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Kicks SDSU out of the bracket. What a joke of an ending, both officiating wise and how horrible both teams played. The SEC sucks and it's a shame they took a bid away from a team that deserved it over them.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. With Mississippi State winning the SEC, OUT

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State, Kansas, Duke*
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State
5: Purdue*, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal, Ohio State
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, BYU
10: USC*, Michigan, Utah St*, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Wisconsin, VCU*
12: Minnesota, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Mississippi State*
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

This is my opinion of what I think the committee will do, not what I would do. If I had my choices two of Minnesota, Maryland, and/or Wisconsin would be OUT in favor of St. Mary's and SDSU. Road/neutral record MUST be weighted more than what the committee allows for, because it's a huge predictor of tournament performance. A team like Arizona has beaten some good teams but when you only win 2 games (both against terrible opponents in Oregon and Oregon State) in true away games you shouldn't have a case. Wisconsin is just 18-12 and 4-10 against the top 50. They stay in because they are a solid 5-1 against the next 50 and a "reasonable" 6-9 R/N against a very difficult schedule.

Additionally, a lot has been made about the #1 seeds. Who cares, there are 5 teams in the running and clearly UConn/Memphis are 4/5 in that group, does it really matter in the end as long as they end up in the same region (which invariably, they will?) UConn stays on the top line for me because they are 8-3 against the top 50 and Memphis is 4-2, but I'd have no problem with them swapped. Both have only lost 1 game to anyone else not in the tournament, and both were to the same team- Georgetown.

For recordkeeping, the top 50 RPI teams left out: SDSU, UAB, St. Mary's, Illinois State, Niagara (all mid-majors, of course.)

[ateamstupid]

My final stab at the field..

AQs: Binghamton, Cornell, Mississippi State, American, USC, Louisville, Robert Morris, Portland State, Cal State Northridge, Missouri, Ohio State/Purdue, Cleveland State, Morehead State, East Tennessee State, Radford, Duke, Utah State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Tennesee-Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Western Kentucky, Temple, North Dakota State, Morgan State, Gonzaga, VCU, Siena, Memphis, Alabama State

At-large bids: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Butler, Xavier, BYU, San Diego State, Dayton, Arizona

The last bid was a close decision between Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's and a few others, and the Wildcats' terrible road/neutral resume may end up hurting them. But I just think Arizona's wins over Gonzaga and Kansas and their much tougher schedule will get the 'Cats in over Penn State.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My final stab at the field..

AQs: Binghamton, Cornell, Mississippi State, American, USC, Louisville, Robert Morris, Portland State, Cal State Northridge, Missouri, Ohio State/Purdue, Cleveland State, Morehead State, East Tennessee State, Radford, Duke, Utah State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Tennesee-Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Western Kentucky, Temple, North Dakota State, Morgan State, Gonzaga, VCU, Siena, Memphis, Alabama State

At-large bids: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Butler, Xavier, BYU, San Diego State, Dayton, Arizona

The last bid was a close decision between Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's and a few others, and the Wildcats' terrible road/neutral resume may end up hurting them. But I just think Arizona's wins over Gonzaga and Kansas and their much tougher schedule will get the 'Cats in over Penn State.

Good stuff Joey!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by philcski

Sunday Afternoon update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 41 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 4 spots open.

Changes Today:* Mississippi State wins the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Kicks SDSU out of the bracket. What a joke of an ending, both officiating wise and how horrible both teams played. The SEC sucks and it's a shame they took a bid away from a team that deserved it over them.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. With Mississippi State winning the SEC, OUT

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State, Kansas, Duke*
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State
5: Purdue*, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal, Ohio State
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, BYU
10: USC*, Michigan, Utah St*, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Wisconsin, VCU*
12: Minnesota, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Mississippi State*
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

This is my opinion of what I think the committee will do, not what I would do. If I had my choices two of Minnesota, Maryland, and/or Wisconsin would be OUT in favor of St. Mary's and SDSU. Road/neutral record MUST be weighted more than what the committee allows for, because it's a huge predictor of tournament performance. A team like Arizona has beaten some good teams but when you only win 2 games (both against terrible opponents in Oregon and Oregon State) in true away games you shouldn't have a case. Wisconsin is just 18-12 and 4-10 against the top 50. They stay in because they are a solid 5-1 against the next 50 and a "reasonable" 6-9 R/N against a very difficult schedule.

Additionally, a lot has been made about the #1 seeds. Who cares, there are 5 teams in the running and clearly UConn/Memphis are 4/5 in that group, does it really matter in the end as long as they end up in the same region (which invariably, they will?) UConn stays on the top line for me because they are 8-3 against the top 50 and Memphis is 4-2, but I'd have no problem with them swapped. Both have only lost 1 game to anyone else not in the tournament, and both were to the same team- Georgetown.

For recordkeeping, the top 50 RPI teams left out: SDSU, UAB, St. Mary's, Illinois State, Niagara (all mid-majors, of course.)

Isn't this a great time of the year! Great work Phil!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Louisville overall #1 seed

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Local heroes Siena at #9....if they get past Ohio St.
then Louisville

Important question coming after all this...

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Local heroes Siena at #9....if they get past Ohio St.
then Louisville

Then AZ

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think San Diego St is in now so I have two open spots. One will go to the SEC whether Miss St earns it or whether someone gets in as a farewell gift to the SEC commish who is in his final year as chairman of the selection committee. That leaves one bid for St Marys, Maryland, Penn St, and Arizona. Right now I'd rank them in that order but it is a very tough call.

Obviously the committee ranked them just the opposite with Arizona in...with a 12 seed they were obviously last in!!!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Then AZ

one can only hope!

[philcski]

Arizona gets in undeservedly... St Marys and Creighton left out. As usual, a crock

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

Arizona gets in undeservedly... St Marys and Creighton left out. As usual, a crock

Blasphemy!

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My final stab at the field..

AQs: Binghamton, Cornell, Mississippi State, American, USC, Louisville, Robert Morris, Portland State, Cal State Northridge, Missouri, Ohio State/Purdue, Cleveland State, Morehead State, East Tennessee State, Radford, Duke, Utah State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Tennesee-Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Western Kentucky, Temple, North Dakota State, Morgan State, Gonzaga, VCU, Siena, Memphis, Alabama State

At-large bids: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Butler, Xavier, BYU, San Diego State, Dayton, Arizona

The last bid was a close decision between Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's and a few others, and the Wildcats' terrible road/neutral resume may end up hurting them. But I just think Arizona's wins over Gonzaga and Kansas and their much tougher schedule will get the 'Cats in over Penn State.

Nailed.

[Cannon Shell]

Can a three seed be a sleeper?